Partial Observability

Robots operating in cluttered environments must often manipulate objects whose locations are only partially observable. A central challenge is deciding whether to acquire another observation or to first manipulate objects that may occlude the target. Conventional task and motion planning (TAMP) approaches typically make this decision using symbolic action costs or expensive geometric planning, neither of which adequately captures how likely an observation is to reveal an occluded target. We introduce Imagine-TAMP, an interleaved planning and execution framework that uses semantic and geometric imagination to compare alternative task-level strategies under partial observability before committing to expensive motion planning. A vision-language model shapes a particle belief over target locations using commonsense relationships between the target and visible objects, while a generative scene model estimates plausible geometry in unobserved regions. Given a target hypothesis and imagined scene, Imagine-TAMP generates multiple symbolic plan skeletons and assigns non-unit costs that approximate both manipulation effort and target visibility from sensing actions, distinguishing a short but poorly informative observation strategy from a longer strategy that first manipulates an occluder to better expose the target. The selected skeleton is then refined into a feasible continuous plan and executed, with new observations updating the belief and triggering replanning when necessary. Experiments show that imagination-guided evaluation improves observation-versus-manipulation decisions: in viewpoint-constrained shelf scenes, non-unit geometric evaluation increases success from 46.0% to 84.0%, while semantic belief shaping further reduces manipulation and replanning. On a real robot, the complete system reduces planning time by 32% relative to a geometry-only ablation.

Recovering latent interaction structures from multi-agent dynamics is important for understanding and predicting interacting systems. Trajectory-based structural inference has achieved promising performance, but conventional formulations assume that the trajectories of all modeled agents are available. In practice, agents may become unobserved at deployment because of limited sensing, occlusion, or communication failure. Existing studies have considered unseen-node estimation, structural inference under partial observations, and missing-value imputation, yet the joint recovery of hidden-agent trajectories and their interactions remains underexplored. We formulate this problem as structural inference under hidden agents. Its key difficulty is a circular dependency: recovering interactions involving a hidden agent requires an estimate of its trajectory, while trajectory reconstruction can itself benefit from structural information. To address this challenge, we propose Structural Inference under Hidden Agents (SIHA), which combines structure-agnostic initialization with structure-guided iterative refinement. SIHA reconstructs hidden trajectories from visible observations, infers interactions using Neural Relational Inference, and feeds the estimated structure back into hidden-state reconstruction through multi-strength structural attention and iterative state--structure updates. Experiments on three benchmark dynamical systems demonstrate consistent improvements in visible-to-visible structural inference, while also showing benefits in hidden-state reconstruction and future prediction. Motion-capture experiments with simulated whole-limb occlusion further demonstrate its effectiveness in realistic hidden-agent settings.

Manipulating deformable objects (DOs) is challenging due to their high-dimensional state space, underactuated dynamics, and partial observability. In this paper, we propose cRVAE, a lightweight conditional recurrent variational autoencoder that estimates the full DO state from only partial corner-node observations during inference. The resulting model is used as the forward model in a receding-horizon optimal control framework for obstacle-aware collaborative DO manipulation. In simulation on rope and fabric, cRVAE estimates the full DO state from the available corner-node measurements alone, matching the accuracy of a parameter-identified XPBD model. At inference it uses no physical parameters as model inputs and performs no online parameter identification. It also runs approximately 350 times faster on the rope and over 1500 times faster on the fabric per forward pass, keeping horizon-based planning within the 100 ms control budget where XPBD exceeds it already at short horizons. Full-shape estimation from corner sensing at in-loop speed is what makes the model deployable on hardware, which we demonstrate on a Unitree Go2 robot.

Large language model agents produce fluent action sequences across a wide range of tasks, yet they fail in characteristic ways once the environment becomes partially observable. Ambiguous feedback pushes them into premature commitments. A single informative observation can collapse their uncertainty onto the wrong hypothesis. Policies drift as the history grows. We trace these symptoms to a common structural cause. An LLM agent, as commonly deployed, is a history-conditioned policy with no explicit belief over hidden state. We propose an architectural fix. The Belief-State Engine (BSE) is an inference module placed outside the LLM. It maintains a Bayesian posterior over the latent states of a given POMDP (Partially Observable Markov Decision Process) model, and at each decision step it exposes only that posterior to the LLM. The raw action-observation log is not shown. We set out a minimal four-axiom specification of what a belief-consistent internal state must satisfy, and prove that the LLM paired with the BSE is a sound Markov policy on the belief MDP induced by the underlying POMDP. It therefore inherits the Bellman optimality guarantees of classical POMDP theory, provided the LLM is never exposed to the raw history. We evaluate the architecture on the Tiger POMDP and a red-team attack-graph task, against six baselines: a reactive LLM, Chain-of-Thought, ReAct, a natural-language belief tracker, QMDP, and POMCP. Across both domains, the BSE-augmented agent improves task return, belief calibration, and decision consistency. Ten targeted ablations isolate the contribution of each architectural choice confirms that the effect is not specific to any one model. Code, environment specifications, prompt templates, and seed logs accompany this paper.

Multi-segment soft robotic arms can continuously reconfigure their body shapes for safe interaction, but tip control alone is insufficient for constrained-space tasks. Therefore, shape control is a more important task for multi-segment soft arms than tip control, but remains challenging due to the high dimensionality and nonlinear dynamics of continuum deformation. In existing work, shape control accuracy is defined by the error in the global frame (global shape error). For multi-segment soft arms, using only global shape error as the control objective is insufficient, as segment coupling, gravity-induced loading, and inertial effects become more significant. This difficulty increases with the number of segments. In this paper, we present a Koopman-based model predictive control framework that combines global and local observables, enabling real-time shape control on multi-segment soft robotic arms. The framework is evaluated through numerical and physical experiments. Numerical experiments demonstrate the scalability of the proposed controller by achieving shape control on robots with up to 10 independently actuated segments. The physical experiments demonstrate that the controller is capable of (1) real-time shape control of 3- and 5-segment robotic arms with tip speeds up to 0.6 m/s, (2) robust tracking without retraining, including distal payloads up to 400g and recovery from a 7N lateral disturbance, and (3) the potential for future inspection applications through a confined-space demonstration. These results demonstrate that the proposed framework enables dynamic, scalable, and accurate real-time shape control on multi-segment soft robotic arms.

Prior work on LLM behavior under anomalous conditions asks whether a model notices anomalies. We ask a narrower question: once a model sits in a workflow with a low, controllable failure rate, does its explanatory engagement - length, specificity, self-reported confidence - change as failure grows asymptotically rarer? We built a local, zero-cost harness on three open-weight models (qwen3:8b, llama3.1:8b, mistral:7b) running a repeated tool-call task where one call fails at probability p, swept across eight rates from 0.2 to 0.0001, under five elicitation conditions from immediate prompting to none. We hypothesized a rise in engagement as failures grew rarer, then a collapse near a detectability threshold. Pooled across conditions this appeared false: length fell in a flat, monotonic pattern. Splitting by condition overturned that. Under immediate_forced, where the model must explain every failure instantly, the predicted rise is confirmed but followed by a plateau, not a collapse: length peaks at 28.4 words at p=0.05, settles to 17.4-19.0 words at the rarest rates, and confidence rises unevenly from about 53% to the 70s-90s. Under grouped_runs, explanation batched to run-end, no collapse appears. Under passive_unprompted, aggregate magnitude is a floor artifact, but a recovered logging gap revealed real, model-specific self-monitoring: llama3.1:8b volunteers structured confidence reports unprompted, sometimes eroding its own confidence as trials accumulate; the other two do so only once, as boilerplate. Elicitation structure is a first-class moderator of collapse observability. A companion guaranteed-failure run (72 cells, backfilling rates where random sampling gave zero real failures) shows models differ in whether they recognize an anomaly, distinct from engagement once recognized. Limitation: discrete rate points cannot capture behavior between them, a direction for future work.

Structured potential outcomes such as microscopy images may be recorded after an unknown, unit-specific transformation. If that transformation can depend on treatment, covariates or the intrinsic outcome, raw-coordinate analyses may mix biological effects with acquisition geometry. We study the unrestricted observation model X = Γ . Y(A) and characterize its observable information: a target is uniformly recoverable exactly when it is constant on group orbits, while a Borel maximal invariant retains every measurable invariant target. We then distinguish observability from statistical losslessness. A quotient-faithful reconstruction theorem shows that quotient reduction is sufficient for the full transformed experiment exactly when the conditional law of the raw observation given treatment, covariates and the quotient has a parameter-free version. Conditional Haar contamination on a compact group yields Blackwell equivalence as a special case; it is not imposed in the main model. We also separate independent site-specific product actions from shared diagonal actions and show why componentwise canonicalization can discard relative cross-site information. Under explicit metric and kernel regularity, an approximate-contamination theorem bounds quotient-law Wasserstein error and the induced perturbation of population maximum mean discrepancy. For finite-support multichannel lattice images, we construct a maximal invariant under integer translations and quarter turns, combine its characteristic Gaussian kernel with a complete paired-swap test, and retain the original simulations and RxRx1 HUVEC study. Under the sharp null, the quotient test rejected in 0.052 of simulation replicates; at unit effect strength its power was 0.992. The primary RxRx1 contrast had an enumerated paired-swap p-value of 0.0078.

Adaptive behavior under partial observability depends on internal organization that carries information beyond the current observation. Drawing on Barrett and Miller's account of categorization as predictive, compressive, functionally organized, and allostatically constrained, we test whether recurrent and spiking agents develop internal states with corresponding computational properties. Agents operate in an energy-constrained foraging task requiring resource acquisition, threat avoidance, contact-dependent consumption, and regulation of an internal energy variable. In a frozen benchmark, learned agents outperform random and heuristic baselines; the trace-augmented recurrent policy is strongest overall, while spiking variants show stress-specific differences. Early internal dynamics predict later full-safe-efficient success above permutation baseline, reaching a maximum ROC-AUC of 0.802. Reduced PCA subspaces retain behaviorally relevant information. Feature-family controls show that predictive signal is distributed across trace, policy-head, internal-dynamics, observation, and allostatic variables, and low-energy state remains strongly decodable after explicit energy-related features are removed. Evaluation-time perturbations to temporal state, sensory information, operating conditions, and allostatic mechanisms alter behavior and/or internal prediction. Seed-balanced event probes show weaker but measurable information about future contact, successful consumption, and threat events, alongside strong low-energy decoding. We interpret this pattern as a computational analogue of predictive allostatic organization: distributed control regimes that are predictive, energy-sensitive, action-relevant, and partly causally involved, without claiming biological validation or discrete symbolic categories.

Instant delivery platforms have become a critical component of urban logistics, increasingly relying on crowdsourced couriers to fulfill highly dynamic orders. In real-world systems, couriers are not exclusive to a single platform and may concurrently serve multiple platforms, while each platform can only observe its own orders and couriers' interactions due to privacy and operational constraints. This results in a multi-platform dispatch environment with inherent partial observability. However, most existing works on dispatch optimization assume full courier observability and mandatory assignment acceptance, causing substantial performance degradation when deployed in realistic multi-platform settings. In this paper, we propose POLO, a partially observable multi-agent reinforcement learning framework for dispatching optimization in multi-platform instant delivery systems. POLO firstly models each platform-grid pair as an independent agent that learns dispatch policies solely from platform-local observations, aligning the learning process with real-world privacy and operational constraints. To support effective decision-making under incomplete and heterogeneous courier information, POLO introduces a novel attention-based policy representation that selectively aggregates inter-courier information. Moreover, we design a counterfactual reward shaping mechanism to mitigate the non-stationarity induced by joint actions across grids, leading to more stable and scalable learning. We develop a high-fidelity simulator to evaluate dispatch performance under varying numbers of platforms and system scales. Extensive experiments demonstrate that POLO consistently outperforms strong baselines in terms of platform revenue and courier travel efficiency, highlighting its robustness and effectiveness in realistic multi-platform settings.

What should a machine learning model learn when data is missing during training? We look at the learning process from a dynamical systems perspective, cast data missingness as a structured loss of actuation that limits controllability of the parameter error dynamics, and ultimately derive adaptation mechanisms with Lyapunov stability characteristics that throttle model updates in ways that preserve learning coherence under partial, intermittent observability. Under recurrent excitation, our analysis provides ISS-type residual-to-state bounds with respect to a bounded closed-loop mismatch between the loss residual and the preconditioned update geometry. We evaluate the efficacy of our directional observability-aware adaptive learning approach on multimodal contexts, reinforcing its premise in promoting learning coherence and stability even in pathologically sparse domains and problems.

Many modern AI systems analyze conversational traces to infer aspects of human interaction and state, implicitly assuming that such information is recoverable from conversation. We study observability: whether a target is recoverable from conversational transcripts alone. Observability is difficult to assess because transcripts may provide only a partial view of many targets, and large-scale analysis requires model-based annotation, making true limits of the conversational signal hard to distinguish from annotator error. We therefore study clinical encounters, where patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) provide an external anchor for patient state, and visits follow broadly structured patterns. We study observability of patient state and conversational phase structure using 439 real-world clinical encounter transcripts spanning 134 hours, including 245 ENT transcripts paired with 273 PROM surveys. We operationalize patient state using PROM scores for voice, cough, and swallowing; phase structure using conversational phase segmentation. To make these analyses credible at scale, we use a PHI-compliant GPT-5 deployment for transcript annotation and conduct 40 hours of manual validation, reducing the risk that apparent limits of observability simply reflect annotator error. Our core finding is an observability asymmetry: phase structure is observable and useful for characterizing clinical encounter organization, while patient state is only partially observable, even in a setting designed to elicit patient symptoms and experiences, cautioning against transcript-only inference of human state.

When a reinforcement learning agent cannot observe the full state, we usually blame its policies: it cannot see enough to represent a good one. We show that in a solvable case the bigger problem lies elsewhere. Even when a good policy is available and the agent's value function is expressive enough to describe it exactly, learning still ends up somewhere far worse. We study a partially observed linear-quadratic problem in which a standard actor-critic learner can be solved in closed form. At our default setting the best policy the agent can represent is already close to optimal, costing 10.4% more than the ideal controller that observes everything. Learning does not find it. The algorithm instead comes to rest at a policy that is 35% worse than the best one available to it, and we can say exactly where and why. The cause is a bias in what the critic learns rather than a limit on what the actor can express. Because the agent cannot attribute what it sees to the part of the state it cannot observe, the critic misreads that unexplained variation as sharp curvature in its own value estimates, and the actor follows that error away from the optimum. We derive closed-form expressions for the resulting policy, for its cost, and for the one design choice that removes the problem, which is how far the learner looks ahead before trusting its own value estimates. Deep reinforcement learning experiments follow these predictions closely. Notably, giving the agent memory of past observations does not help, while changing how far it looks ahead does.

Modern models no longer keep a plain KV cache: latent caches, learned sparse selectors and recurrent states each carry the model's memory in a different form, and each fails differently under compression. We give a runtime observability contract that covers all four memory classes with three operators, instantiate it on six model configurations across five architecture families, and compose the per-stage bounds into an executable request-level risk ledger. Contracts carry their error metric as a type -- composition is only defined when metrics match, and this check rejected our own first composed chain; the repaired chain crosses metrics through two proved bridges, and whatever no formal system can certify is measured instead, dropping the composed tier to empirical automatically: every claim is certified, partially certified, or empirical, composition inherits the weakest tier, and the tier is decided by the machine. Replayed over $12.4$M entry reads and run under eight-way concurrency with per-request budgets and fail-closed identity attribution, the ledger quantifies the honest trade-off on today's witness and holds its risk budget with zero violations. A fused always-on probe observes a declared one-layer subset under CUDA graphs inside the serving noise floor. Applied to a served DeepSeek-V4 stack with a packed compressed-KV prototype, the same machinery localizes a silent corruption to a precise structural boundary -- exact in the eviction-free, identity-isolated regime, with every observed failure in an eviction or slot-reuse regime -- through a machine-adjudicated discrimination campaign whose calculus rejected two of our own confounded inferences along the way. All artifacts, guards, and the Lean development are released at https://github.com/metask-ai/witprobe-attention-memory; every number in this paper regenerates from the shipped artifacts by one command.

This paper presents an observation-only autonomy framework for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) navigation in dynamic underwater environments that integrates persistent occupancy mapping, global clearance-aware planning, and risk-aware local control. The proposed pipeline constructs occupancy maps solely from onboard sonar and depth image observations, adapts a clearance-constrained global planner (GP) to provide long-horizon structure, and integrates a reinforcement learning (RL) policy to handle short-range tracking and reactive avoidance. To further support decision-making under partial observability, the system learns a compact latent state representation from onboard sensor data, encoding environmental structure, obstacle dynamics, and uncertainty. Behavior tree (BT) distillation with staged supervision is introduced to improve safety and training stability, while an uncertainty-calibrated distillation mechanism reweights teacher guidance using online latent-model uncertainty, emphasizing uncertain regimes during learning, with time-to-collision (TTC) and clearance cues remaining explicit in planning and local policy features. To demonstrate the efficacy of the framework, a reproducible multi-seed evaluation protocol is established in high-fidelity GPU-accelerated simulation using NVIDIA Isaac Sim, and performance is benchmarked against BT-only and standard RL baselines. The results obtained demonstrate improved robustness and safety under dynamic conditions, thus providing a general pipeline with a unified hybrid planning learning architecture and a reproducible methodology for robust UUV autonomy under partial observability.

Large language models often show users a final response and a short reasoning summary while the full reasoning trace stays hidden. We introduce an observability ladder that holds each completed run fixed and varies only what a reader inspects to judge whether the answer is correct: the response, a self-summary the model writes from the trace, the trace itself, and internal signals, each with and without the prompt. Across three benchmarks and five open-weight Qwen3 and gpt-oss models, we train matched linear correctness predictors on each access level. Without the prompt, summaries carry most of the trace's ranking signal (mean AUROC 0.774 versus 0.813) and add +0.156 over the response alone. With the prompt visible, the summary's gain collapses to +0.019, while the trace still adds +0.041. Even at equal length, the trace's last words predict correctness as well as summaries, or slightly better, and carry denser and more discriminative uncertainty and self-correction cues. On MMLU-Pro questions with both correct and incorrect runs, linear summary readers are near chance and trace readers retain only modest signal, both with and without the prompt (prompt-withheld AUROC 0.503-0.545 versus 0.544-0.590). With the prompt withheld, a GPT-5-mini reader recovers substantially more signal from both summaries and traces on gpt-oss-20b, and even then the trace keeps a small +0.034 advantage. Much of the linear readers' trace signal is associated with length. In the common case where users already hold the prompt, summaries are less helpful than the full trace for monitoring correctness. Monitorability is thus a joint property of the display and the reader, so any monitorability claim, including for faithfulness, should specify both.

In vision-aided navigation and visual-inertial odometry, the quality of triangulated three-dimensional feature positions is a fundamental prerequisite for state estimation accuracy. Triangulation becomes ill-conditioned or even impossible when a camera undergoes pure rotation without translation, or when the observed bearing vectors provide insufficient parallax. Even though visual-inertial odometry has been extensively studied, the active maintenance of feature-observability during navigation has not been sufficiently addressed in the literature. To address this gap, this study presents TANGO-VIO, a triangulation-aware navigation framework that embeds a log-determinant metric of the feature-wise stacked-bearing matrix into a control barrier function. In this proposed method, the observability guarantee is established in the feature-geometric sense by enforcing a lower bound on the aggregate triangulation-information metric through a nominal-direction-weighted minimum-deviation velocity correction. The proposed architecture is evaluated through software-inthe- loop simulations and real flight experiments. The results show improved triangulation conditioning under low-parallax motion, while the flight response closely reproduces the corresponding simulation behavior and confirms the practical realizability of the proposed safety filter. Supplementary materials are available on the project webpage.

Drifting objectives compare a target and model distribution through a vector field observed noisily at finitely many locations. We ask what distributional conclusion such a frozen measurement system warrants. For integrable antisymmetric interactions and absolutely continuous laws in a declared finite density basis, the unnormalized sampled numerator satisfies $\operatorname{vec}(V_X)=Mc$, where $c$ is an antisymmetric mismatch and $M$ is probe-dependent. This identity yields an a posteriori total-variation (TV) upper confidence bound accounting for held-out field noise, estimated-operator error, and externally validated $L^1$ residual radii around normalized density approximants in the span; a nonpositive observability margin returns the trivial TV bound and abstains. The audit recomputes this numerator from held-out samples; a normalized drift statistic requires a separate joint numerator--denominator analysis. For Gaussian-RBF interactions, a global envelope supports distribution-free and empirical-Bernstein radii without truncation, with companion bounds for the Laplace similarity in the original drifting objective. We characterize random-probe observability by a population Gram matrix, identify rank and symmetry degeneracies, and prove large-bandwidth collapse toward mean matching. Synthetic studies exercise Gaussian and Laplace numerators, separately prespecified bounded-vector and variance-adaptive radii, Monte Carlo-calibrated operators, nonzero residual radii around normalized finite-basis approximants, outward-rounded observability bounds, and designed abstention. A joint basis-size/dimension stress path extends evaluation through $m=8$. The result is a conditional diagnostic for a finite density class, or for normalized finite-basis density approximants with external residual radii, not a universal guarantee from small training drift.

Recently Large Language Models (LLMs) have been increasingly deployed as autonomous agents in applications such as self-reflection, retrieval-augmented generation, and scientific discovery. In these settings, agents must act based on limited observations rather than full environmental states, leading to partial observability. This introduces several key challenges: belief state inference, task objective misalignment, and planning under uncertainty. Prior approaches typically condition actions on full or summarized action-observation histories whose redundant and irrelevant information can mislead the decision making of LLM agent. Inspired by human cognition, we propose a novel neuro-symbolic fast-slow thinking (NeSyFS) framework for LLM agent, addressing the challenges introduced by partial observability in a unified approach. We use a knowledge graph (KG) to represent the belief state, providing triplets as context for every module of NeSyFS. The fast-thinking module performs reactive action, while slow-thinking conducts a new uncertainty-aware planning by following the high-level structure of twisted sequential Monte Carlo (TSMC) algorithm. To mitigate the misalignment of task objective, a reflection module is used to reflect fast-thinking actions, and also switches to the slow-thinking module whenever reactive actions repeatedly fail. Experiments on three representative benchmarks, i.e. ALFWorld, Webshop, and ScienceWorld, demonstrate significant advantages over previous methods.

KV-cache quantization is validated today by offline benchmark averages; a deployed system cannot tell whether compression is damaging the request it is serving right now. We give it a provably sound runtime meter -- a "DTrace for KV quantization": a per-(layer, head, step) upper bound on the total variation between exact and compressed attention. The meter has two tiers: a deterministic band-norm-witness bound, sound for any cache-preserving black-box quantizer and for any query (adaptive-safe, worst-case Cauchy--Schwarz plus RoPE band-unitarity), and a tighter probabilistic certificate for a controlled subtractively-dithered INT8 quantizer under an explicit request-level failure budget (stated for non-adaptive queries; core theorems machine-checked in Lean 4). Three results. Observability: the meter enters SGLang through an env-guarded patch, and any scheme registered as one tensor function is measured in live serving. Repair: meter-driven gating -- risk-ranked where the witness is saturated, certified where it is informative -- empirically restores the quality floor at benchmark scale, e.g. raw-cast fp8 from 22.8 back to 79.7 on hard RULER tasks with the difference from uncompressed bounded at $[+0.0,+0.8]$ by a paired test. Analysis: aggressive schemes survive on cross-layer error cancellation, not per-step fidelity -- in a 28-layer sweep, no single layer's pollution alone loses anything (0/28) -- and the certified int8 cache serves $1.88\times$ more KV tokens at the same memory in SGLang. All artifacts, guards, and the Lean development are released at https://github.com/metask-ai/witcert-kv-certificates; every number regenerates from the shipped artifacts by one command.

An agent acting under partial observability must retain a recursively updateable statistic of history that restores the Markov property, but the smallest such statistic is generally unknown. We characterize this minimal Markov sufficient statistic for holonomy-cover decision processes, a structured POMDP class in which the visible dynamics are Markov and every realized visible transition applies a fixed permutation to a hidden mode. In particular, we construct the stable quotient, the coarsest observation-wise abstraction preserving one-step rewards and quotient successors, and prove that the pair of the current observation and stable class forms an exact finite Markov state. When the current class is correctly initialized, exact class tracking requires exactly the minimal memory symbols, in the sense that under reachability and pairwise decision separation at a maximizing observation, no arbitrary finite-memory controller can use fewer. Under resettable diagnostics, nearest-prototype class inference has exponentially decaying error, and a calibrate-then-restart reduction transfers finite-MDP guarantees to the recovered state. The results enable \emph{Holonomy Memory Reinforcement Learning}. It represents memory by the current stable class, updates it through ordered edge transports, identifies local class coordinates when diagnostics are available, and applies a standard finite-MDP RL backbone after synchronization. Experiments recover an exact compression from raw states to quotient states and achieve perfect paired-order accuracy with three decision-time memory states, matching the quotient oracle and outperforming the non-oracle baselines.

Autonomous driving under adverse weather remains a critical challenge, yet existing vision-language benchmarks mainly evaluate under standard conditions, synthetic corruptions, or single modality. As a result, it remains unclear how vision-language models behave under real-world adverse weather with multi-modal inputs. We argue that a key difficulty lies in degraded environmental observability: under fog, rain, snow, and low illumination, multi-modal observations become unreliable and cross-modally inconsistent, posing challenges to scene understanding, and subsequent decision-making. To study this, we introduce \textbf{ObsDriveBench}, a real-world multi-modal benchmark for adverse-weather autonomous driving. Our benchmark is designed with three capability dimensions: \textbf{observability awareness}, \textbf{spatial reliability}, and \textbf{risk-aware decision-making}, enabling fine-grained diagnosis of model behavior under degraded observations. We construct the benchmark through observability meta-annotation, scene description, and capability oriented multiple-choice tasks over synchronized camera, LiDAR, and radar inputs, forming a benchmark with over 14k training and 13k test questions. Experiments reveal consistent performance degradation of existing vision-language models. We further introduce \textbf{ObsDrive} model with normal-weather supervised fine-tuning and adverse-weather reinforcement learning, improving robustness across all three capabilities. The dataset and evaluation code will be released at \href{https://github.com/russellyq/ObsDriveBench}{\texttt{ObsDriveBench}}.

Path planning under partial observability remains challenging because an agent must make long-horizon navigation decisions from only locally bounded observations. Nevertheless, historical trajectories contain reusable experience-guided directional preferences. Classical planners, however, typically solve each instance from scratch and lack an explicit mechanism to exploit such transferable decision knowledge, often leading to redundant node expansions and locally myopic search behaviors. Motivated by this limitation, this paper proposes ImiPath, a prior-guided learning framework that distills reusable spatiotemporal decision priors from demonstration trajectories and uses them as experience-informed directional guidance to bias planners toward reliable and promising search directions under partial observability. Specifically, ImiPath first constructs a local spatiotemporal observation representation, which encodes the spatial information of the local environment and the temporal information of historical trajectories. The SpatioTemporal-Attention Policy Network (STAPNet) then transforms this representation into dicision priors. These priors are further incorporated into heterogeneous planners as directional guidance, biasing the search toward locally promising regions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ImiPath achieves competitive path quality and improves search efficiency by reducing redundant node expansions under local observability. Additional physical experiments on a magnetic microrobot platform further validate the adaptability and practical deployment potential of the proposed framework.

LLM agent failures are difficult to debug because the step where an error surfaces is often not the one that caused it. Existing observability tools replay execution traces but provide little support for identifying the root cause or translating diagnosis into recovery. We present AgentDebugX, an open-source debugging framework that organizes debugging as a closed loop of Detect, Attribute, Recover, and Rerun. At its core, DeepDebug performs multi-turn root-cause diagnosis through global trajectory understanding, structure-guided investigation, and cross-examination. On the Who and When benchmark, DeepDebug achieves the best strict attribution accuracy among the evaluated methods on both tested open-weight backbones, reaching 28.8 percent exact agent-and-step accuracy on qwen3.5-9b versus 21.7 percent for the strongest single-pass baseline. On GAIA, DeepDebug repairs 13 of 73 failed tasks in a single rerun, compared with 4 to 6 for three decoupled self-correction baselines, improving overall accuracy from 55.8 percent to 63.6 percent. AgentDebugX exposes this workflow through a Python library, CLI, web console, and installable agentic skill, and provides an opt-in Error Hub for sharing scrubbed failure-diagnosis-repair bundles and reusing them as debugging memory.

Partially observable reinforcement learning requires deciding what to retain, retrieve, and forget over time. We introduce a neuro-symbolic meta-policy that learns which symbolic memory heuristic to apply at each decision point while keeping execution symbolic. Our setting uses temporal knowledge-graph memory in RoomKG, where hidden state and observations are represented as Resource Description Framework (RDF) graphs and memory is augmented with temporal RDF triple annotations. The model combines knowledge-graph encoding of memory contents with value heads for question answering, exploration, and forgetting, yielding a controller that is both adaptive and inspectable. This gives the work a direct Semantic Web grounding through RDF-based representation, annotation-compatible graph semantics, and graph-based symbolic operations over explicit memory state. On train/test room splits at long-term memory capacity of 512, the qualifier-aware StarE-GNN configuration achieves the best held-out performance among the compared symbolic, neural, and neuro-symbolic systems while preserving step-level traceability of memory-management decisions.

The gap between simulation and reality remains a fundamental challenge in deploying simulation-trained robotic policies in the real world. Real-to-sim methods narrow this gap from the real side, learning transition dynamics from real data to build a more realistic digital world. Learned dynamics models are their dominant instance. Such methods, however, face a partial observability problem: the same observation may branch to different transitions due to unobservable factors. Existing methods assume these factors can be recovered from observation history. However, this may fail whenever observation history is uninformative, such as a sudden contact event with no prior warning. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{World Translation}, which exploits a complementary strength of simulators and learned dynamics. Simulators are deterministic but physically imperfect, while learned models are accurate but underdetermined under partial observability. Rather than predicting transitions forward from history, we extract the unobservable dynamics information backward from an observed transition, then translate this feature across simulation and reality as an unpaired domain-translation problem that preserves dynamics content while transferring domain style. Experiments across humanoid, quadruped, and manipulator platforms show that our method achieves more accurate dynamics modeling than baselines, with the largest gains when unobservable factors cannot be recovered from observation history. Real-robot deployment on Go2 quadruped confirms improved policy transfer.

We develop an adjoint-sensitivity framework for positional influence in causal residual Transformers and separate unconditional analytic results from conditional boundary-shape conclusions. The principal unconditional theorem is the residual-to-depth-flow estimate for layer controls converging in $L^1$, complemented by a finite-token-to-Volterra attention estimate that explicitly controls the first cells near the causal endpoint. We define a normalized adjoint-energy influence density and derive its exact evolution along full-batch gradient flow. The adjoint admits an exact generator-term decomposition into residual transmission, nonlocal Volterra, and local channels, including all covariance cross terms. Causal masking can amplify early-position sensitivity and residual identity paths can transmit a right-localized terminal bias, but neither mechanism alone forces a U-shaped profile. We therefore state boundary advantages under independently checkable energy, correlation, and local-channel bounds; these conditions are sufficient rather than necessary. Finite-token influence balancing, positional reweighting, and task-aligned observability are presented as diagnostics or regularizers with explicit differentiation requirements, computational costs, and limitations. Controlled simulations illustrate that each intervention controls its designated surrogate, while observability balance or outer-loop reweighting need not monotonically reduce the influence-based Lost-in-the-Middle diagnostic.

We model cryptographic auditing of off-chain data as a Constrained MDP (CMDP) under partial observability: the storage node's hidden type and corruption state make the problem a POMDP, while a miss-rate ceiling rho imposes an explicit security constraint. We propose DRQN-CMDP, a Deep Recurrent Q-Network whose GRU layer maintains a belief over the latent node type, paired with Lagrangian dual ascent that adapts the miss-rate penalty lambda automatically. A pairing-free homomorphic-MAC primitive supplies O(1) on-chain verification cost. Across 13 methods--four DQN variants, PPO, A2C, PPO-Lagrangian, a stateful Bayesian heuristic, three fixed-rule baselines, and an oracle-informed heuristic--DRQN-CMDP achieves a favourable balance: 83% lower gas than fixed high-frequency auditing, single-digit miss rate (7.5%), and moderate detection latency--a combination no other method matches across all three objectives simultaneously.

Classical approaches to event-based egomotion estimation, including those adopted by the top-performing teams of the ELOPE challenge, rely on geometric optimization frameworks such as contrast maximization, homography estimation, or dense optical flow combined with analytic motion inversion. This work investigates the geometric structure that emerges inside a multi-modal network for egomotion estimation. Event tensors, inertial measurements, and range signals are fused through a cross-modal attention architecture and trained in a batch setting. We analyze the latent space geometry and attention dynamics, showing that (i) embeddings lie on low-dimensional manifolds aligned with motion variables, (ii) attention weights adapt with angular excitation and visual reliability, and (iii) the fused representation recovers classical observability cues. These results bridge analytical estimation theory and modern data-driven fusion.

The bottleneck of Earth Observation processing chains is not the arrival of new imagery but whether the surface is actually visible when the image arrives. We study this as an observability forecasting problem on EarthNet2021. Given recent multispectral imagery and exogenous weather drivers, the goal is to predict whether the next acquisition will be usable and, if not, when a usable view is likely to return. To do this, we adapt LeWorldModel, a joint-embedding predictive architecture world model, to cloud-aware Earth Observation sequences. The final pipeline converts raw minicubes into episodic HDF5 sequences with five image channels (blue, green, red, near-infrared, cloud mask) and eight meteorological and calendar covariates. The resulting model has 18.0M trainable parameters and is trained from scratch on 23,904 training episodes. The trained leWorldModel is evaluated under a locked protocol: linear probes are fit on train only, calibration choices are set on an internal validation split, and the fitted heads are then frozen for valsplit, IID, OOD, and extreme evaluation. On the full frozen-bundle observability benchmark, LeWorldModel consistently outperforms persistence. For next-step usability, balanced accuracy ranges from 0.769 to 0.887, compared with 0.493 to 0.556 for persistence. For exact first-usable-horizon prediction, accuracy ranges from 0.602 to 0.806, compared with 0.120 to 0.369 for persistence. Against a frozen LightGBM baseline fit on the same training windows, LeWorldModel is better on continuous clear/cloud regression and on exact recovery timing on valsplit, IID, and extreme, while LightGBM is stronger on the simpler binary any-usable-within-six task and is more robust on OOD. In separate sampled diagnostic analyses, LeWM also produces strong ranking-based anomaly signals under synthetic temporal inconsistencies.

Surgical tissue retraction requires effective manipulation planning under partial and noisy perception. We study state estimation for deformable tissue retraction, where only sparse observations of the tissue surface are available at decision time. We propose a learned state estimator that reconstructs the full deformable mesh state from 40 noisy vertex observations. The estimator combines a multilayer perceptron with a low-dimensional PCA latent representation and is trained using geometry-aware regularization that encourages smooth and physically plausible deformations. We evaluate the approach in a 2D deformable sheet simulation using single-step and multi-step retraction planning. Results show that the learned estimator achieves 98.1% of oracle performance in multi-step retraction while supporting efficient inference. These results demonstrate that learned, geometry-regularized state estimation can support effective deformable manipulation under realistic perception constraints.

Low-bit quantization makes small reasoning models inexpensive to deploy but can degrade their chains of thought. This motivates decoder-side monitors that intervene when generation becomes unreliable. We show that a natural candidate, the centered token log-probability increment $\log p(w_t)+H_t$, is the wrong observable for this purpose. Under the model's own sampling law it is a mean-zero martingale by construction, so it measures sampling self-consistency rather than trajectory health and is nearly silent during confident repetition, where both $\log p(w_t)$ and entropy are close to zero. We introduce a training-free decoding controller that combines (i) a degeneration-aware alarm score fusing token uncertainty with explicit verbatim repetition and (ii) a calibrated e-process-inspired sequential detector. The raw product process is Ville-valid under a conditional-mean null, while the deployed CUSUM-floored statistic is treated as an empirical change detector because the score is history-dependent and autocorrelated. On GSM8K with DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B in FP16 and INT4, calibration turns a monitor that fires on 93--95% of generations into a selective detector of failing traces ($φ\approx 0.3$, precision $\approx 0.6$ against a 0.38 base rate). In this pilot, the controller reduces measured verbatim-degeneration signals and yields a positive but statistically inconclusive INT4 accuracy change from 63% to 69% (paired McNemar $p=0.18$, $n=100$), at a 28% token-budget cost. We also find that non-termination, rather than looping, is the dominant failure mode on GSM8K. The main contribution is methodological: an explanation of why centered token log-probability is inadequate for decoder monitoring and a calibrated, cautiously evaluated replacement.

Autonomous driving operates in partially observable environments where actors may become fully occluded by other vehicles or infrastructure. Most end-to-end driving systems implicitly couple actor existence to instantaneous observations, causing actor hypotheses to degrade or disappear during prolonged occlusion and removing potentially critical agents from downstream prediction and planning. We introduce BeyondSight, a permanence-aware end-to-end driving framework that decouples actor existence from observability by maintaining persistent actor hypotheses over time. BeyondSight propagates actor queries temporally and updates them with observation-conditioned evidence, enabling joint perception, prediction, and planning to reason about actors even when they are temporarily unobservable. To enable principled training and evaluation of persistence-aware models, we further introduce nuScenes-Permanence, an extension of nuScenes that provides supervision and observability-conditioned evaluation for unobservable actors. Experiments show that BeyondSight substantially improves reasoning under occlusion, increasing detection performance for unobservable actors from 0 to 0.249 mAP while reducing planning error from 0.61 to 0.54 L2avg. These results highlight object permanence as an important modeling principle for robust end-to-end autonomous driving.

Autonomous systems under partial observability act on beliefs, not raw sensor events. QANTIS treats the quantum processor as a calibrated belief-update service in that loop: it receives a prior and an observation model, estimates the rare-event evidence term, and returns an ordinary posterior to a classical planner. This paper asks whether that service can be reused across a sequential Tiger POMDP horizon on present IBM Heron hardware without corrupting the planner-facing posterior. We answer with a controlled hardware case study rather than an end-to-end autonomy or wall-clock speedup claim. The study compares no amplification, guarded Grover amplification, and all-step fixed-point amplification on the same trajectory, then checks whether the returned posterior would change the downstream action. All-step FPAA preserves the Tiger posterior across the reported 8-step and 12-step primary runs, and the 20-step and 32-step controls remain inside the same operating band. In every reported decision check, the hardware posterior and the exact Bayes posterior select the same immediate action. Boundary-aware BIQAE stabilizes amplitude estimation near zero and near one, while a rare-event sweep maps the logical sample-complexity envelope for one-in-a-million evidence. The result is an operating envelope for a hardware-calibrated belief-update primitive, not a standalone hardware-advantage claim.

Deliberation plays a crucial role in collaboration; when humans work together, they naturally engage in communication to align information and reach an agreement. In this paper, we investigate deliberative large language model (LLM) agents under partially observable joint decision-making tasks. We formalize deliberative collaboration as a cooperative joint decision problem with partial and asymmetric observations, and introduce a scalable benchmark that instantiates this problem across multiple task settings and domains in which agents must exchange information through deliberation to reach a joint decision with a shared reward. We then instantiate a reference scaffold and evaluation protocol for deliberative agents and conduct a systematic evaluation of a range of representative LLMs. The results reveal that complex deliberative collaboration tasks continue to challenge state-of-the-art language models. Even with the aid of external mathematical tools, language models may fail in either the deliberation process for aligning information or the complex reasoning process for making the decision. On the other hand, diagnostic analysis reveals that the deliberation process may also provide opportunities for reflection and error correction, sometimes improving performance over centralized baselines. Altogether, our work establishes a foundation for evaluating and improving LLM agents in deliberative collaboration and provides insights into the strengths, limitations, and properties of current LLM-based multi-agent systems.

We characterize observability in representation learning through Platonic Projection Structures (PPS), an operator-theoretic framework for analyzing representation accessibility under partial observation. Rather than treating observable outputs as direct reflections of latent representations, PPS models observation through a self-adjoint positive semidefinite operator acting on a latent representation space. A system is represented as a triple $(H, Π, O)$, where $H$ is a latent representation space, $Π\succeq 0$ is an observation operator, and $O(v)=\langle v,Πv\rangle$ defines an induced scalar observable. Observability is characterized by the quotient geometry $H/\ker(Π)$, representing equivalence classes of latent states indistinguishable under observation. We show that quantum measurement and representation inference under linear observation models share this operator-theoretic structure while differing in the algebraic properties of their observation operators; the correspondence is structural rather than physical. Representation transfer and knowledge distillation can likewise be interpreted as approximate preservation of observable geometry through $ΦΠ_T \approx Π_S Φ$. PPS also reveals a structural limitation of output-based interpretability: latent components in $\ker(Π)$ are inaccessible from induced observables, imposing intrinsic constraints on attribution and explanation methods. Controlled empirical validations demonstrate kernel-invariant observability, projection-induced attribution gaps, and rank-controlled observable geometry in latent representation spaces. PPS thus provides an explicit characterization of observability through operator-induced quotient geometry and a unified perspective on representation accessibility, interpretability, and projection-mediated inference.

Inter-agent communication is critical for coordinating Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) agents under partial observability to perform effectively in cooperative games; however, real-world bandwidth constraints demand sparse interactions. Prior approaches primarily address this trade-off by optimizing information-theoretic surrogates. We argue that these statistical proxies are fundamentally misaligned with the true objective: a message can be highly informative yet irrelevant to the joint return of the task. In this work, we propose Message Unlearning for Targeted Efficiency (MUTE), a framework that views communication reduction as a value-guided machine unlearning problem. MUTE rigorously quantifies the Counterfactual Message Value using an attention-based estimator, and systematically unlearns the transmission of low-value messages from a policy trained without any communication constraints. This is achieved through a dual-objective mechanism that enforces communication sparsity while preserving the return of the original joint policy. We derive a theoretical upper bound on the performance gap induced by this sparsification, guaranteeing controlled return degradation. We also empirically evaluate MUTE on various complex multi-agent environments, achieving 80% to 90% bandwidth reduction while maintaining performance comparable to state-of-the-art baselines.

Reinforcement learning agents operating under partial observability must act on incomplete information, making them natural candidates for guidance from small language models (SLMs) that carry broad reasoning priors. Yet integrating SLM guidance into this setting has proven difficult: across all test environments, vanilla uncertainty-gated approaches achieve an overwrite rate at or near zero, meaning the SLM almost never contributes an independent action. We trace this failure to the bare egocentric prompt, which provides insufficient context for genuine reasoning, and identify it as a context problem rather than a capacity problem. We propose ASK+, which supplies the SLM with trajectory-aware context (a partially revealed map, visited positions, and action history) and structured chain-of-thought reasoning, converting it from a passive redundancy check into a more informative consultant that occasionally corrects the policy. We further establish that the predictive entropy signal used for selective querying measures action uncertainty rather than state uncertainty and remains informative in POMDPs, making uncertainty-gated assistance viable beyond fully observable settings. The stateful prompt drives substantial gains: on DoorKey, where vanilla ASK matches PPO (both 89%), ASK+ reaches 93% success; on FourRooms, success climbs from 53% to 70%; on HigherLower, accuracy reaches 73.7%, matching the SLM-only upper bound. Across all environments, Qwen3.5-2B matches or exceeds Qwen3.5-4B, confirming that prompt design and selective gating dominate the impact of model scale, enabling guidance without large models.

Dual-pixel (DP) imaging enables metric depth estimation from a single camera using sub-aperture disparity. However, the extremely small effective baseline limits disparity observability, leading to structural degradation and depth failure in textureless, low-contrast, or downsampled regions. Existing DP-based methods rely primarily on local disparity cues and therefore become unreliable when disparity signals are weak or ambiguous. To address this limitation, we propose \emph{FoundDP}, a unified framework that integrates metric DP depth with global structural priors from a monocular depth foundation model. Our method preserves metric scale through DP-derived depth and leverages Vision Transformer (ViT) features to restore structural consistency in weak-disparity regions. To ensure reliable metric guidance under DP imaging conditions, we identify and mitigate ViT representation degradation induced by DP defocus blur via ViT feature alignment, enabling stable metric-guided depth estimation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world DP benchmarks show that FoundDP delivers superior performance, with consistent gains in structural fidelity and metric accuracy, especially under reduced disparity observability. Code will be available at: https://github.com/EchoLighting/FoundDP

We study how to predict the downstream closed-loop performance of a learned latent world model from validation-time diagnostics alone. Choosing the right checkpoint from a world-model training run is difficult: validation loss and multi-step prediction RMSE keep improving long after closed-loop performance has collapsed. We present a suite of structural validation-time diagnostics drawn from optimal-control theory and apply them to Gymnasium's LunarLander v3, which features shaped rewards. We train an RSSM [5, 4] world model on it and treat per checkpoint CEM-MPC return as the oracle for closed-loop quality. By evaluating 40 metrics against this oracle, we find that the strongest single predictor is the Reward Observability Fraction (ROF), which measures the reward predictor's dependence on the observable subspace. We combine ROF with three structural regularizers into a single-number offline checkpoint selection score, the Composite Reward Observability Fraction (CROF). The CROF-selected world model trains a model-based A2C policy that beats a fairly evaluated model-free A2C baseline by ~24.5 return points while using ~65x fewer real-environment interactions, and the same world model also drives a strong zero-shot CEM-MPC policy. Code and data: https://github.com/nsmoly/LunarLander_RSSM.

Formal specification is a powerful tool to guide the learning process and provides significant advantages over reward shaping: (1) mathematical rigor; (2) expressiveness to specify objectives and constraints, and (3) the ability to define tactics to achieve objectives. However, these benefits remain largely unexplored in the context of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL). This paper introduces HyPOLE, a novel framework for MARL under partial observability, where learning is guided by the expressive power of the so-called hyperproperties and, in particular, the temporal logic HyperLTL. We integrate Centralized Training for Decentralized Execution (CTDE) techniques with HyPOLE to synthesize decentralized policies, and our evaluation on SMAC, MessySMAC, and WildFire benchmark demonstrates clear advantages over baselines.

Physical or operational constraints often impose communications limitations on autonomous agents. Such limitations complicate monitoring or multiagent coordination. Even when strong communications are absent, some information may still be available. The remainder of the relevant agent state may be reconstructed via estimation. The actions taken by an agent are a potential source of information -- as the agent interacts with the environment, these actions may be observed even in the absence of explicit communication. We investigate using actions to estimate the state of an agent, using reinforcement learning to develop policies which make the estimation problem more tractable. Policy observability is encouraged through the training reward and is analyzed using simulation of the trained agent. In an aircraft tracking problem a policy with enhanced observability is found that has minimal impact on nominal task performance.

This paper studies the problem of regret minimization in Markovian bandits with \emph{non-observable states} and possibly \emph{constrained} decision epochs. The focus is restricted to a ``pure'' regret benchmark, that compares the performance of the learning algorithm to the best \emph{pure policy} which -- akin to optimal policies of stochastic bandits -- picks the optimal arm from start to finish without ever switching. We introduce a generalization of rested Markovian bandits, \emph{self-degrading Markovian bandits}, for which pure policies are always asymptotically optimal.We show that without prior knowledge on the underlying bandit, the regret of algorithms that switch arms rarely necessarily scales super-logarithmically for every bandit, i.e., as $ω(\log(T))$, where $T$ is the learning horizon. Despite the unreachability of the logarithmic regime, we design UCB-NOM, an optimistic algorithm inspired by UCB, of which the regret is nearly logarithmic. Lastly, we show that given prior knowledge on the Markovian bandit in the form of a bound on the bias functions of its arm, a proper instantiation of UCB-NOM achieves $O(\log(T))$ regret. We further show that this prior knowledge allows for a $O(\sqrt{T \log(T)})$ worst-case regret bound for UCB-NOM. Notably, our regret bounds do not depend on the number of states of the underlying Markov chains. Our findings suggest that the non-observability of states is a mild inconvenience in self-degrading Markovian bandits.

Bearing-odometry-based cooperative localization has attracted increasing research interest due to its minimal infrastructure requirements, low communication bandwidth and broad applicability in complex environments. However, existing 6-DoF approaches still face challenges in rapidly obtaining accurate and reliable inter-robot pose estimation, as the system is prone to observability degeneracy under specific motion patterns. To address these issues, we first propose a closed-form 4-DoF inter-robot pose estimator, which relaxes nonlinear constraints for rotations estimation and employs error projection for translations estimation. We then conduct a theoretical analysis of the system's observability, identifying degeneracy under two typical motion patterns: collinear and shape-preserving formations. The analysis further shows that the proposed 4-DoF system requires less stringent motion excitation for observability, enabling reliable estimation under a broader range of cooperative maneuvers. Furthermore, an observability test module is introduced to autonomously determine the optimal estimation instant, eliminating reliance on a predefined fixed-length sliding window. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves higher estimation accuracy with significantly low computational cost, and the observability test module ensures estimation reliability while minimizing the data collection interval.

Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE) has been shown to improve the sample efficiency of deep reinforcement learning algorithms. However, its reliance on full environment observability limits its applicability in realistic settings, and its requirement to model transition probabilities incurs substantial computational overhead for high-dimensional observations. In the present work, we address both limitations. First, we extend the theoretical framework of DAE to partially observable domains with minimal modifications. Second, we reduce its computational complexity by introducing discrete latent dynamics models that efficiently approximate transition probabilities. We evaluate our approach on the Arcade Learning Environment and find that DAE scales effectively with function approximator capacity while retaining high sample efficiency.

The ability to localise teams of robots is essential for applications ranging from robotic fleets in unstructured environments to cooperative control and navigation tasks. In such contexts, fixed infrastructure is often unavailable, deployments must be fast and flexible, and system requirements must be minimal. We present a decentralised cooperative localisation algorithm that addresses all these challenges at once. The method is anchor-less, fully decentralised, and, unlike most existing approaches, does not require controlling the robots motion to ensure team observability. It relies only on local odometry, sparse inter-agent ranging measurements, and short-range communication, all of which are widely available in practice. The algorithm adopts a multi-hypothesis Bayesian framework that maintains the entire set of feasible solutions, ensuring robustness under transient unobservable conditions. Moreover, through information sharing, each agent benefits from the estimates of the entire group, even in partially connected conditions.

We present a formal model of mesh inference: how a population of independent agents, each holding private state and exchanging only admitted, typed observations, derives a conclusion none of them holds alone, with no central coordinator and no agent exposed. No agent shares weights, gradients, or hidden state, and the agents may span different teams, networks, and organizations. Motivated by the observation that asking a model is energy-minimizing inference, we model the mesh as a coupled free energy that each agent relaxes locally. We show that a single admission/emission policy governs three properties. First, mesh inference converges to a unique answer for any admission, symmetric or not, because the coupling is always an M-matrix. Second, it is identification-complete: it derives the centralized optimum exactly when the contributing views are carrier-connected. Third, it is observation-only: no node transmits its internals, and confidentiality is the dual of identification. Content-addressed lineage is the only global side-channel. In the linear-Gaussian regime every derived answer is determined, hence equal to the centralized optimum, at O(diam^2) latency, the measured price of removing the center. One such derivation is one turn of a center-free learning loop, which we formalize as architecture rather than prove. The open problem we state is when asking improves the collective rather than corrupting it: whether the non-linear closure derives an upgraded answer or a confident error. To our knowledge, this is the first formal characterization of when a center-free, observation-only mesh recovers the centralized optimum.

This paper presents an analysis of the observability and consistency properties of filtering-based visual-inertial navigation systems (VINS) that utilize anchored feature representations. The unobservable subspace of VINS with anchored landmark parameterizations is shown to be independent of the estimated landmark state, which leads to improved estimator consistency properties without any additional modifications. However, the unobservable subspace is still found to depend on the estimated navigation state, necessitating additional consistency-enforcing techniques. Two methods to improve the consistency of VINS with anchored feature representations are presented. Simulation results showcase that all estimators employing anchored feature paramterizations exhibit improved consistency properties compared to algorithms that estimate features resolved in a global reference frame, especially in scenarios where feature initialization may be poor. Real-world experiments on the TUM-VI dataset showcase that the use of anchored feature representations alone can yield comparable performance to consistency-improved estimators employing a global feature representation, demonstrating the benefit of using anchored feature parameterizations for VINS.

Entity-aware document retrieval uses query-associated entities as ranking signals, assuming that semantically relevant entities are also useful retrieval signals. We show this assumption is insufficient- and explain why. Unlike terms, which are ground-truth observations, entity links are hypotheses produced by an imperfect linker: an entity can be topically central yet provide no discriminative signal if the linker fires indiscriminately across relevant and non-relevant documents. We formalize this as a distinction between Conceptual Entity Relevance (CER)- whether an entity is topically related to a query- and Observable Entity Relevance (OER)- whether its observed presence in a collection discriminates relevant from non-relevant documents. Across four collections and annotation sources including human entity judgments, CER and OER exhibit near-chance agreement ($κ\approx 0$), while OER operationalizations agree substantially ($κ\approx 0.5$), confirming CER as the systematic outlier. CER-based supervision selects topically plausible but weakly discriminative entities, pruning fewer than 4% of non-relevant documents on some collections. Aligning supervision with OER improves non-relevant pruning by up to 10x and open-world MAP by 0.051 over BM25. Our findings motivate a shift from conceptual to observable notions of entity relevance in entity-aware retrieval.

Reliable trajectory planning under partial observability depends not only on computing a feasible geometric path, but also on whether the robot receives informative observations while executing that trajectory. Existing approaches usually keep the environment fixed and adapt the robot through belief-space planning, active localization, or added sensing, often incurring costly uncertainty propagation and brittle behavior in observation-poor regions. We flip this perspective and address the largely open problem of \emph{task-aware environment augmentation}: given a mapped environment, a planned task trajectory, and a small budget of visual fiducial markers, where should the environment be augmented so that the planned trajectory can be executed reliably under uncertainty? Our key observation is that useful marker layouts are defined by the localization support they provide along the task trajectory: a small number of well-timed observations can be sufficient to prevent uncertainty from accumulating in regions where state-estimation error would otherwise compromise control. Building on this observation, we present \tbp{SCoDA}, $\textbf{S}$hielded $\textbf{Co}$nditional $\textbf{D}$iffusion for Environment $\textbf{A}$ugmentation. \tbp{SCoDA} learns a conditional distribution over high-performing fiducial layouts from data, using the environment, planned trajectory, disturbance context, and desired execution profile as conditioning. Its shielded sampler reasons over where along the planned execution pose corrections should occur, and steers this distribution toward task-relevant, finite-budget augmentations. Across simulated benchmarks and hardware deployments, we show that \tbp{SCoDA} improves trajectory execution reliability and completion time over strong baselines. Code, models and dataset available at: \hyperlink{scoda-diffusion.github.io}{https://scoda-diffusion.github.io/}

Real-world time series are often highly incomplete and irregular due to sensor dormancy, transmission delays, and event-driven sampling, making reliable forecasting fundamentally challenging. Existing methods have evolved from impute-then-forecast pipelines to continuous-time models such as Neural ODEs and continuous-time graph networks. While these approaches improve the modeling of historical irregularity, they still rely on an implicit oracle assumption at inference time: the timestamps of future valid observations are presumed to be known in advance. This assumption limits practical relevance, since in many real systems the more fundamental question is not only what the future value will be, but also whether a valid observation will occur at all. In this paper, we propose Timeflies, a unified framework that reformulates forecasting as a joint problem of future observability inference and value estimation. To explicitly model the interaction between observation dynamics and state evolution, Timeflies adopts an observation stream and a value stream, coupled through three dedicated modules for reliability-aware embedding, observation-guided dependency modeling, and joint prediction. We further construct Shadow, a benchmark that combines natural missingness from public datasets with real-world industrial data, and introduce the Observation-Value Joint Entropy (OVJE) metric to comprehensively evaluate this coupled predictability. Extensive experiments show that Timeflies consistently outperforms existing methods, highlighting the importance of explicitly modeling future observability in time series forecasting with missing values. Code and dataset are available in https://github.com/ant-intl/Timeflies.

Robot Operating System 2 (ROS 2), the de facto standard middleware framework for robots, runs each robot as a graph of nodes communicating over the Data Distribution Service (DDS), a publish/subscribe substrate. Observing this inter-node communication in real time is essential to robot development, yet it has a price. A tool can receive data only by joining the DDS domain as a subscriber that discovery has matched to the publisher, so observing folds the tool into the system it measures and perturbs it. We define this protocol-inherent perturbation as the observer's probe effect. It inflates the discovery plane, adds deserialization cost on the observer, makes the loss it reports diverge from what the subscriber actually received, and near saturation displaces the subscriber's messages. The only escape, capturing all wire traffic passively, discards ROS 2 message semantics and scales with total traffic, not what is observed. We present ros2probe, a non-intrusive observation framework that removes the probe effect. It reconstructs the full ROS 2 communication state from the domain's discovery packets at no bandwidth cost, then drives an in-kernel filter restricted to the topics the user asks for, lifting only those packets at minimal cost and observing what the real subscriber receives. Its interfaces and recordings match the standard ROS 2 tools. Across three hardware platforms (laptop, Jetson, and Raspberry Pi), two DDS implementations, and seven robot-operation workloads, ros2probe holds the discovery graph within 0.5% of an unobserved system, whereas domain-joining tools inflate discovery up to 2.6$\times$ and drop 38.5% of the subscriber's messages at saturation while ros2probe drops none. It reports loss with a recall of 1.0, cuts observer CPU and memory by up to 7$\times$ and 28$\times$, and stays practical on the embedded robots where existing tools overload the system.

Long-horizon language agents accumulate observations, reasoning traces, and retrieved facts exceeding context windows, making memory retention a fundamental resource-allocation problem. Existing systems treat retention as local and do not model long-term consequences under observability constraints. To fill this gap, we formulate memory retention as a constrained stochastic optimization with budget feasibility, evidence utility, and delayed costs including miss, reacquisition, and stale penalties. We show this multi-step problem is NP-hard, making exact solution intractable. Moreover, deployment decisions must be made under partial observability. To address these challenges, we propose OSL-MR (Observability-Safe Learning for Memory Retention), a learning-augmented framework that enforces a strict separation between online-observable features and offline-available supervision. OSL-MR combines an evidence learner trained from realized evidence with a Mixed-Score heuristic that serves as a deployable online-safe baseline and an inductive prior. The policy learns query-conditioned evidence from interaction data and remains deployable under the same constraints. Experiments on LoCoMo and LongMemEval show OSL-MR outperforms recency-based, Generative Agents-style, and other heuristic baselines, especially under tight budgets. The Mixed-Score prior improves precision and recall, and sensitivity analysis shows robustness across cost settings. On small solvable instances, single-step optimization is insufficient to anticipate future demand shifts, while OSL-MR stays significantly closer to the dynamic-programming optimum, confirming the necessity of the sequential formulation and reinforcing our learning-guided approximation. These results establish constrained stochastic optimization and optimization-guided learning as a principled foundation for memory management in long-horizon agents.

Delegation-scoped execution is not identifiable from standard observables: audit logs and execution traces can be identical under multiple incompatible delegation assignments. This gap is especially acute in LLM-based agentic systems, where agents dynamically select tools, vary execution sequences across runs for the same instruction, and spawn cooperating sub-agents. These dynamics fragment and interleave traces, making delegation-scoped reconstruction from causal structure alone structurally underdetermined. Although individual actions are authorized and logged, existing audit, tracing, and security schemas lack the semantics to reconstruct what actions occurred under a given delegation across heterogeneous systems. We focus on delegation-scoped attribution and access/share footprint reconstruction, not intent inference or reasoning reconstruction. We present an agent-aware observability substrate consisting of a lightweight gateway and a common information model that binds delegation context at execution time. This enables reliable cross-tool delegation-scoped reconstruction and direct forensic queries without heuristic time-window correlation.

AI agents are typically instrumented through outcome-oriented indicators such as task success, reward, latency, and cost.Although these indicators are operationally important, they provide limited visibility into the internal structure of agent behavior such as the degree of exploration, the rigidity or diversity of action selection, the concentration of tool use, the reduction of uncertainty across a run, and the stability of behavior across repeated executions.This paper proposes Entropy-Based Observability for AI Agents (EOA), a lightweight framework for deriving behavioral telemetry from agent traces.

Large language model (LLM) agents are becoming long-running software actors rather than fixed tool users. They accumulate memory, activate skills, synthesize tools, fork children, attach remote resources, and commit checkpoints into reusable execution images. These mechanisms improve adaptability, but also create a systems-security failure mode: if exposing an action also grants the authority needed to perform it, self-evolution becomes a permission-escalation path. This paper presents Agent libOS, an agent-native library-OS substrate for capability-controlled self-evolving agents. Its central invariant is that model-visible affordances may evolve while resource authority changes only through explicit, audited runtime primitives. Agent libOS represents an agent as an AgentProcess with process identity, process-local Object Memory, message queues, a tool table, loaded Skills, process-local Deno/TypeScript JIT tools, child processes, budgets, checkpoints, and explicit capabilities. AgentImage objects define boot-time prompt and tool-table state; Skills and JIT tools extend the action surface; checkpoint-derived images make internal state reusable. None of these mechanisms grants filesystem, shell, human, memory, process, checkpoint, image, JSON-RPC, MCP, or PTY authority by itself. The prototype implements process-local namespaces, persistent runtime state, LLM-call observability, human approval queues, budgets, syscall-mediated JIT tools, trusted Runtime Modules, Object-bound PTY sessions, checkpoint restore/fork/commit, JSON-RPC and MCP providers, and a deterministic runtime-safety benchmark. On 27 versioned deterministic tasks, it completed the task plans while preventing all modeled unauthorized side effects, with a 7.0% conservative false-denial rate. Simple wrapper and sandbox baselines preserved task completion but failed most safety checks.

Imitation-learning policies for robot manipulation inherit the quality of the success labels attached to their training episodes, and those labels are usually produced by the robot's own success check. A particularly damaging error is the false success: an episode the robot logs as a success when the task outcome was actually wrong. We ask a narrow but practical question about these episodes. Once an episode has already been flagged as a success, how much of the information needed to overturn that label is present in proprioception, and how much requires vision? We build a simulated testbed on two bimanual ALOHA tasks, induce failures through environment perturbations rather than label edits, label every episode by privileged simulator state that the detector never sees, and keep only episodes the robot flagged as successful. We then compare detectors restricted to proprioception against a vision-based detector. We find that recoverability spans a wide range: in cube transfer the false successes are almost fully recoverable from joint data alone, while in peg insertion proprioception recovers only part of them and a vision detector closes most of the gap. We also show that the proprioceptive separability we measure rests on velocity differences far below any realistic sensor noise floor, so it is best read as an optimistic upper bound that a noiseless simulator inflates. We release the generation and evaluation pipeline.

We are witnessing a surge in observations of the cosmic dawn (CD) and epoch of reionisation (EoR), driving an increasing demand for fast and robust theoretical interpretation frameworks. In response, machine learning (ML), and emulation in particular, has emerged as a powerful approach to accelerate and enhance inference pipelines. In this work, we present 21cmEMUv3, an emulator trained on 21cmFASTv3 simulations that model both atomically and molecularly cooling galaxies. 21cmEMUv3 is conditioned on $σ_8$ and ten astrophysical parameters to produce seven summary observables: (i) the cylindrical 21cm power spectrum (PS), emulated for the first time at such high resolution and accuracy across a wide redshift range of $z \sim$ 6--30; (ii) the spherically-averaged 21cm PS; (iii) the mean neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium (IGM); (iv) the mean 21cm spin temperature; (v) the global 21cm signal; (vi) the ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions (LFs); and (vii) the Thomson scattering optical depth. Notably, the cylindrical 21cm PS is emulated via score-based diffusion, while the remaining six summaries are emulated via long-short term memory (LSTM) networks, all achieving sub-percent median accuracy. We use the emulator to reinterpret current 21cm PS upper limits from HERA, for the first time using state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations to inform priors on star formation inside molecularly cooling galaxies. We find that our inferred soft-band X-ray luminosity per unit star formation rate is consistent with extrapolations of high-mass X-ray binaries to the low-metallicity regimes expected in the first galaxies, excluding values below $10^{39.2}$ erg s$^{-1}M^{-1}_\odot \rm{yr}$ at $95\%$ confidence. Finally, we produce forecasts for the detection of the cosmic 21cm PS with the Square Kilometre Array for different array configurations. The 21cmEMU package is publicly available.

Attack Success Rate (ASR) evaluates each jailbreak with a single yes/no label at the end of generation, telling us whether a failure happened but not how it unfolded. Two attacks that produce equally harmful outputs may have followed completely different paths, and ASR cannot tell them apart. We make those hidden paths observable from logits alone. Temporal Logit Observability (TLO) is a training-free diagnostic that watches a compliance-refusal margin during decoding and places each model-attack condition on a calibrated 2D plane. By design, this plane is most informative exactly where ASR is least informative: among attacks that succeed for genuinely different reasons. Across four aligned LLMs and three jailbreak paradigms, attacks with nearly identical ASR land at clearly different points on the plane: the same model can fail through different temporal patterns. The geometry matches refusal-direction probes from hidden states on most conditions, with one model showing the limit of our fixed-lexicon approach. A simple early-stop rule derived from TLO cuts successful jailbreaks by more than half, without false alarms on plain benign queries. Safety evaluation should report when and how a failure unfolds, not only whether it occurred. TLO makes the first two observable from logits alone.

Progress in neural combinatorial optimization for Dynamic Flexible Job Shop Scheduling Problem (DFJSP) is currently hindered by a methodological tension: static benchmarks encourage benchmark overfitting, while uncalibrated generators obscure algorithmic capability with stochastic noise. To resolve this, we introduce \textbf{DynaSchedBench}, a diagnostic framework for DFJSP that rigorously controls the instance-generation process. Instead of relying on parameter sampling, our approach utilizes Sequential Event-Space Calibrator (SESC) that computes a novel Schedule Stress Index (SSI) to stratify instances by difficulty. We demonstrate that SESC is substantially more computationally efficient than evolutionary baselines while converging reliably to the target metrics. The framework integrates modular components for instance generation, snapshot-based simulation, agents, evaluation, and visualization, thereby enabling rigorous testing of reactive and lookahead-based policies. Leveraging this calibrated environment, we identify key limitations of LLM-based scheduling agents. Specifically, in step-wise online decision-making for dynamic scheduling, we identify an ``Observability Paradox'': providing agents with oracle access to full structural information can degrade policy performance, underperforming concise information. Furthermore, despite substantial token overhead, tool-augmented and refinement strategies fail to reliably improve performance, and most LLM agents fail to consistently surpass strong dispatching baselines-behaving more like robust heuristic approximators than superior optimizers.

AR smart glasses need continuous behavioral context to offer proactive assistance, yet their most practical always-on sensor, the head-mounted Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), detects only motion primitives such as walking or standing. We push beyond motion primitives to behavioral-level recognition, defining five categories that balance AR application need with sensor observability. To this end, we construct a 160K-sample Ego4D dataset with a four-tier quality assurance framework spanning 8 activity scenarios, and propose HiT-HAR, a 703K-parameter hierarchical model that outperforms prior head-mounted IMU models on five-class action and eight-class scenario recognition. We further map the observability frontier of head-mounted IMU through per-class separability analysis, identifying which behavioral categories are reliably observable (Locomotion), which benefit from temporal context (Object Transfer, Task Operation), and where scenario-dependent signal overlap poses remaining challenges. Our results indicate that architectural choices exploiting temporal context and scenario structure outperform simply scaling model size. The code and dataset are publicly available at https://github.com/Harvard-AI-and-Robotics-Lab/HiT-HAR.