Adverse Weather

This study analyses kinetic energy (KE) spectra, difference kinetic energy (DKE) spectra, and signatures of KE transfer across spatial scales in four state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models: NeuralGCM-ENS, FourCastNet 3, AIFS-ENS, and GenCast. Results are compared with those from the physics-based numerical weather prediction model IFS-ENS. While NeuralGCM-ENS successfully reproduces the expected upscale transfer of KE, noise injection at its encoder stage underestimates mesoscale KE. Conversely, AIFS-ENS, GenCast, and FourCastNet 3 produce realistic KE spectral magnitudes but do not capture the expected upscale transfer of KE. In particular, AIFS-ENS and GenCast, which employ spatially uncorrelated stochastic perturbations, exhibit enhanced accumulation of KE at high wavenumbers. All examined models exhibit upscale error growth, reflected by the progressive shift of the DKE spectral peak toward larger wavelengths over time. However, the MLWP models struggle to reproduce the rapid initial growth of ensemble spread at small spatial scales associated with the butterfly effect. The results show that MLWP models can misrepresent the known scale transfer of kinetic energy despite producing skilful weather forecasts.

Reliable railway operations depend increasingly on real-time environmental intelligence delivered through wireless sensor infrastructures, a capability that 6G networks will substantially enhance through integrated sensing and edge computing. Adverse weather, particularly in Arctic regions with extreme temperatures and heavy precipitation, remains a leading cause of train delays, yet most prediction approaches rely on raw meteorological inputs without exploiting domain-informed feature engineering. This paper investigates machine learning for train delay prediction using the Finland Integrated Train-Weather (FI-TW) dataset, which fuses railway operational records with observations from the Finnish Meteorological Institute's nationwide sensor network of approximately 200 stations communicating over wireless links. We evaluate three feature configurations using XGBoost at Oulu central station (101,146 observations): full weather features, instant weather observations only, and derived weather category scenarios. The category-based approach, employing hierarchical classifications such as Blizzard, Heavy Snow, and Extreme Cold, achieved an R^2 of 0.78, root mean squared error of 8.5 minutes, and mean absolute error of 3.7 minutes, representing an 11% R^2 improvement and 10% error reduction over alternative configurations. These results demonstrate that compact, domain-informed features derived from sensor streams outperform raw meteorological observations, offering bandwidth-efficient representations suitable for edge deployment over current and emerging wireless infrastructures.

To address insufficient contextualization, weak generalization, and poor scenario adaptation in tourism meteorological services, we propose SmartWeatherAgent--a unified three-stage architecture integrating intent recognition, hazard prediction, and reasoning-enhanced generation. The system fuses rule-based methods with large language models to parse queries at multiple granularities and employs a LightGBM model enriched with highland-specific features (e.g., wind speed abruptness rate), achieving an F1-Macro score of 0.605 with 1.60 ms latency on high-wind, precipitation, and low-temperature events. A 12-round micro-step prompt self-optimization loop boosts the composite warning quality score S_final from 4.2 (B01) to 8.9 (B12, +112%). Key improvements include a sharp rise in B08 from data source citation (6.5 -> 8.5), sustained high performance in B10 via physical mechanism explanation, and a peak scientific rigor score of 9.2 in B12 through explicit uncertainty statements. The system autonomously generates structured warnings that integrate causal mechanisms, spatiotemporal evolution, quantitative evidence, regulatory references, and confidence statements--enhancing professional depth, logical rigor, and scientific soundness, and advancing meteorological services toward proactive perception, explainable decision-making, and intelligent agency.

Statistical post-processing improves ensemble weather forecasts, but generating calibrated predictions at locations without observations remains challenging. This study compares statistical and machine-learning-based methods for post-processing ECMWF 2-m temperature and 10-m wind speed forecasts at observed and unobserved stations in Germany. We consider EMOS-based approaches, distributional regression networks, Transformers, and graph neural networks under both limited and extended predictor settings. For temperature, we also investigate linear forecast combinations and propose an altitude-aware linear pool (ALP). The results show that post-processing improves upon the raw ensemble in most settings, but no single method performs best across all variables, station groups, and evaluation metrics. The proposed ALP provides a small but significant improvement over the standard linear pool at unobserved locations.

Accurate cloud-cover forecasts are important for temperature prediction, radiation forecasting, and solar-power operations. Short-range forecasting methods can preserve observed cloud placement during the first forecast hours, but their skill decreases when cloud fields evolve through formation, dissipation and deformation. Longer lead times require accounting for atmospheric evolution, but operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts may not accurately represent the satellite-observed cloud state at initialization. We develop CloudCast v2, a machine-learning model for 12-hour cloud-cover forecasting from observation-based initial conditions. The model is first trained on the Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (Ridal2024) to learn cloud-evolution dynamics, and is then adapted to satellite-derived cloud fields using conditional flow matching (Lipman2023), a generative method that transforms noise into cloud-cover forecasts conditioned on the observed initial cloud fields and NWP inputs. CloudCast v2 reduces mean absolute error by 10% relative to its predecessor, CloudCast v1 (Partio2025), over the 1-12 h range. It also overtakes CloudCast v1 in fractions skill score, a neighborhood-based measure of spatial agreement, after approximately 3-6 h, depending on the cloudiness category. These results show that observation-initialized machine-learning forecasts can extend beyond the usual 1-3-hour nowcasting range while retaining spatial detail from satellite cloud fields.

State-of-the-art AI weather models have shown impressive medium-range forecast skill and computational efficiency, but suffer two key shortcomings: their forecasts have lower spatial and temporal resolution than the best physics-based models and they are exclusively initialized with and trained on analysis data. As a result, they cannot directly make use of observations, and any biases in the analysis are inherited by the forecast. WeatherNext 3 addresses these shortcomings and establishes a new state-of-the-art for probabilistic medium-range forecasting skill. First, WeatherNext 3 generates new forecasts every hour (rather than every 6 hours like traditional global models) by ingesting low-latency geostationary satellite data. Second, WeatherNext 3's temporal and spatial resolution are on par with physics-based global models, with hourly time steps and 0.1 degree resolution for single-level variables, including solar radiation and cloud cover. Third, WeatherNext 3 moves beyond traditional analysis variables by learning to predict satellite-derived precipitation estimates, as well as tropical cyclone and station observations. Modelling sparse station data allows WeatherNext 3 to make 2m temperature and dewpoint predictions at any location and time, conditioned on local geographical features, with substantially lower error than competing global models, even when evaluated against unseen stations. Together, WeatherNext 3's capabilities move operational AI-based weather forecasting beyond emulating the traditionally distinct stages of data assimilation, forecasting and post-processing, which helps to further push the frontier of performance and granularity for global weather prediction.

Adverse weather causes diverse and complex image degradations, severely compromising the reliability of computer vision systems. Existing all-in-one restoration models attempt to address multiple degradation types within a unified framework, but often lack explicit spatial and semantic modeling of degradation characteristics, limiting their adaptability to diverse weather conditions. To address this limitation, we propose a Degradation-Aware Cross-Modal Prompt Compensation Network (DCMPC-Net) that leverages cross-modal degradation cues from a pretrained vision-language model to condition restoration features within a unified backbone. Specifically, our DCMPC-Net mainly consists of the Cross-Modal Prompt Generator (CMPG), Prompt-Guided Attention Alignment Module (PGAAM), and Dual Feature Compensation Module (DFCM). The CMPG integrates textual embeddings with visual features to produce degradation-aware prompts that encode degradation-related semantic and contextual cues. These prompts are injected into the decoder via a PGAAM, which adaptively aligns semantic information with degraded regions to facilitate context-aware restoration. To further enhance structural fidelity, DFCM is introduced that disentangles degradation artifacts from scene structures, thereby improving the reconstruction of fine textures and detailed content. By integrating cross-modal semantic guidance with spatial alignment and structural enhancement, DCMPC-Net achieves robust and perceptually consistent restoration across diverse weather conditions. Extensive experiments show that DCMPC-Net outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both task-specific and unified settings, achieving superior accuracy and visual fidelity.

Existing machine-learning weather forecasting models rely on predetermined and fixed autoregressive timesteps. The choice of model timestep involves a fundamental trade-off: shorter timesteps (e.g. 1 to 6 hours) finely resolve atmospheric dynamics within the diurnal cycle but increase error accumulation for a given forecast horizon, while longer timesteps (e.g. 24 hours) reduce error accumulation but limit the usability of short-range forecasts where sub-daily predictability is high. In this work, we present GEM-3, a probabilistic global weather model that addresses this trade-off through explicit multi-timestep inference. With a single set of trained weights, the model timestep can be configured at inference time to balance predictability and usability across a broad forecast horizon. Additionally, we find that mixed-timestep training consistently improves rollout stability relative to timestep-specialist models. Under the hood, GEM-3 is a lightweight neighborhood-attention transformer with ~134M parameters on an equirectangular grid with a number of architectural advancements beyond its predecessor GEM-2. The result is a practical forecasting system that couples near-SOTA medium-range probabilistic skill, stable extended-range rollouts, efficient training and inference, and decision-relevant diagnostics.

Realistic weather translation is valuable for developing and evaluating autonomous driving systems, yet collecting paired videos of the same scenes under different weather conditions at scale is impractical. Existing methods therefore rely on synthetic data, 3D weather editing, or geometry-conditioned generation, often compromising weather realism or scene fidelity. We propose RealWeather, a driving world model for both realistic and scene-faithful weather translation. Our key idea is to learn authentic weather dynamics directly from real-world videos. Specifically, RealWeather employs Progressive Realism Bootstrapping, an iterative data-refinement strategy. Assisted by an auxiliary Pseudo-Clear Generation pipeline, training initially starts with pseudo-style conditioning videos. As training proceeds, these inputs are progressively replaced with increasingly realistic videos generated by the model itself. This strategy bridges the pseudo-to-real domain gap, allowing the model to adapt seamlessly to real-world input distributions and naturally support bidirectional clear adverse translation. Furthermore, to strictly enforce structural integrity and suppress hallucinations, we introduce Scene-Fidelity RL Optimization, a reward-driven policy optimization strategy that explicitly penalizes alterations to safety-critical driving elements. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RealWeather significantly outperforms existing methods in visual realism and structural preservation, while enabling robust long-tail weather scenario generation and strong zero-shot out-of-distribution generalization. Our video demos can be found at https://hust-umi.github.io/RealWeather/.

The push for broader coverage in future cellular networks depends on reliable service, yet this is increasingly harder to do as we encounter more instances of extreme weather conditions. In extreme weather conditions, we have difficulty evaluating coverage due to limited access to channel measurements. In this paper, we generate channel state information (CSI) in low and moderate weather conditions to synthesize realistic MIMO CSI under adverse weather conditions. Our primary contributions are to (1) synthesize MIMO channel datasets incorporating three weather types, each with three intensity levels, representative of practical 5G/6G scenarios; (2) train a diffusion model conditioned on weather using channel samples obtained through conventional pilot-based estimation under low and moderate weather intensities, and subsequently use it to generate channel realizations for severe weather conditions; and (3) evaluate the downlink Bit Error Rate (BER) and Outage Probability measures using the generated channels. The results show that diffusion-based generative models provide a scalable, data-driven alternative for channel modeling in harsh environments and can generalize to severe weather conditions using only low- and moderate-intensity training data.

Perception tasks for autonomous vehicles need to work satisfactorily in adverse weather conditions. Due to lack of real-world weather datasets, weather simulations are a promising alternative. To ensure simulations closely mirror real-world weather data, it's crucial that they represent the same weather characteristics, including severity and particle positioning, across different sensors. To achieve this, we propose the Reference Dataset Alignment Method (ReDAM) for weather intensity alignment in fog and Unified-weather-edit (inspired by Weather-edit[1]) for particle positioning alignment in rain and snow. We validate both alignment methods using statistical and geometrical tests, respectively. We find that 3D detection models for non-aligned versions tend to be overly optimistic as compared to aligned versions. We also show the aligned-multi-sensor simulation's effectiveness for achieving robustness for 3D object detection task by finetuning existing sensor fusion models on it.

Early warning of extreme weather is essential for mitigating the societal, economic, and environmental risks posed by hazardous weather events. However, expert-centered warning workflows are costly, labor-intensive, and difficult to scale throughout the warning-to-action process. Although recent advances in Large Language Model (LLM) agents have enabled the automation of weather-related tasks, existing studies remain centered on isolated scientific tasks and overlook the chain of interdependent processes required for operational extreme-weather early warning. To bridge this gap, this study investigates automated end-to-end extreme-weather early warning through LLM agents. We first develop SIREN-Bench, a comprehensive benchmark comprising 600 question-answer instances across 19 tasks, and covering four individual warning procedures and an end-to-end warning chain. Evaluation on SIREN-Bench reveals substantial capability gaps in existing weather agent frameworks. This motivates us to develop SIREN, an experience-grounded agent framework inspired by experts' use of historical cases, which combines an agentic execution environment integrating heterogeneous weather evidence and tools with a family of agent harnesses that exploit historical cases through retrieval, skill distillation, and predictive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SIREN outperforms weather-agent baselines on both individual warning procedures and end-to-end warning chains.

Autonomous driving under adverse weather remains a critical challenge, yet existing vision-language benchmarks mainly evaluate under standard conditions, synthetic corruptions, or single modality. As a result, it remains unclear how vision-language models behave under real-world adverse weather with multi-modal inputs. We argue that a key difficulty lies in degraded environmental observability: under fog, rain, snow, and low illumination, multi-modal observations become unreliable and cross-modally inconsistent, posing challenges to scene understanding, and subsequent decision-making. To study this, we introduce \textbf{ObsDriveBench}, a real-world multi-modal benchmark for adverse-weather autonomous driving. Our benchmark is designed with three capability dimensions: \textbf{observability awareness}, \textbf{spatial reliability}, and \textbf{risk-aware decision-making}, enabling fine-grained diagnosis of model behavior under degraded observations. We construct the benchmark through observability meta-annotation, scene description, and capability oriented multiple-choice tasks over synchronized camera, LiDAR, and radar inputs, forming a benchmark with over 14k training and 13k test questions. Experiments reveal consistent performance degradation of existing vision-language models. We further introduce \textbf{ObsDrive} model with normal-weather supervised fine-tuning and adverse-weather reinforcement learning, improving robustness across all three capabilities. The dataset and evaluation code will be released at \href{https://github.com/russellyq/ObsDriveBench}{\texttt{ObsDriveBench}}.

Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) originated within the Logic Programming community in the Nineties as a framework for combining symbolic learning with declarative knowledge representation. Nowadays, mature ILP frameworks exist and they are capable of learning complex, non-monotonic hypotheses, thus broadening both the modeling capabilities and the scope of real-world applications of ILP. This work is primarily based on the FastLAS2 framework and aims to generate simple, interpretable hypotheses to help clarify the weather bulletins issued by OSMER FVG, the Regional Meteorological Observatory of the Italian region of Friuli Venezia-Giulia. In this paper we present a pipeline that, starting from simulated meteorological raw data and from OSMERs' bulletins (used as ground truth), extracts data as ASP facts and generates ILP examples. From such examples an explanatory hypothesis is then inferred via FastLAS2. Such a hypothesis (translated into natural language) explains the weather forecast issued by human experts, and in particular the rationale behind experts' choices of specific symbols in the bulletin pictogram (the symbol-annotated meteorological map of the forecast). The proposed approach is general, not specific to any particular region and it can equally be applied to bulletins from other sources and to different regions.

Long-horizon weather forecasting is a fundamental challenge in atmospheric science, for which autoregressive Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) has emerged as the primary paradigm. Although the autoregressive pipeline is highly scalable and flexible, its prediction errors grow rapidly over long forecasting horizons. In this work, we study this error growth phenomenon from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Our analysis reveals that the growth is driven by a feedback loop between output errors and input distribution shifts. Specifically, the autoregressive process amplifies small initial output errors, which progressively corrupt subsequent input distributions, echoing the butterfly effect in atmospheric science and ultimately deteriorating forecasting accuracy over longer horizons. Furthermore, we show that this distributional shift originates at the earliest stage of inference, with out-of-distribution signatures detectable as early as the first autoregressive step. To mitigate this issue, we propose \textbf{Self-Output Fine-Tuning (SOFT)}, a plug-and-play strategy that leverages the model's own one-step predictions to calibrate the biased input distribution encountered at the first step. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, despite its simplicity, SOFT achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-horizon forecasting tasks and substantially reduces both prediction errors and distributional discrepancy. The success of SOFT highlights the importance of reexamining the fundamental pipeline of deep learning weather prediction, representing a critical pipeline advance for atmospheric science.

While machine learning-based weather models hold significant promise, they struggle to predict the detailed structure of large-scale weather systems such as cyclonic storms. Regional models are constrained by limited historical records within fixed geographic boundaries, while global models are computationally expensive and often operate at resolutions too coarse to capture fine-grained storm dynamics. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Geospatial Diffusion-based Evolution Synthesis (GeoDES) model, a custom image-to-video diffusion model. By focusing generation strictly on the evolving storm structure, GeoDES synthesizes physically consistent, high-fidelity weather events suitable for stress-testing forecast models and expanding meteorological datasets. Evaluations demonstrate that GeoDES outperforms prior methods on key metrics, achieving $52\%$ lower Peak Vorticity Error and $8\%$ higher Anomaly Correlation Coefficient than the next strongest methods on the North Atlantic test set.

Reliable perception under diverse weather conditions remains a major challenge for autonomous driving systems. A common strategy to improve robustness is either to synthesize adverse weather conditions for training perception models or to apply weather-removal techniques to recover clean inputs. However, existing approaches typically rely on synthetic data augmentation or physics-based, task-specific models that require paired training data and often struggle to generate realistic weather effects or generalize robustly to out-of-domain scenarios. Toward this problem, we present Cyclone, a unified framework for weather editing based on latent diffusion, equipped with cycle-consistent constraints and knowledge from image-text models. Cyclone enables the generation of multiple weather conditions across diverse scenes while eliminating the need for paired data. Experimental results show that our approach produces more realistic, structure-preserving outputs than existing baselines and leads to consistent improvements across several downstream driving perception tasks. Furthermore, we demonstrate that Cyclone can be distilled to a video diffusion model for temporally consistent weather editing.

UAV-based vehicle re-identification (ReID) has emerged as a promising technique for traffic surveillance, urban monitoring, and public-safety applications thanks to the flexible viewpoints and wide-area coverage provided by unmanned aerial vehicles. However, despite recent progress on UAV-based vehicle ReID benchmarks, the robustness of existing methods under adverse weather remains insufficiently studied. This is important because weather degradation can significantly affect the fine-grained appearance cues required for reliable vehicle matching in aerial imagery, especially under small object scale, viewpoint variation, and complex backgrounds. In this paper, we present a controlled comparative study of three representative recent vehicle ReID methods, namely CLIP-ReID, MSINet, and AdaSP, on two UAV-based benchmarks, VRU and UAV-VeID. To ensure consistent robustness evaluation, we generate synthetic foggy and rainy variants of both datasets using an analytical weather-effect pipeline while preserving the original identities and data splits. All methods are then trained and evaluated under matched clean, foggy, and rainy conditions. Experimental results show that adverse weather consistently degrades retrieval performance across both datasets, with rain causing larger drops than fog in nearly all settings. Among the evaluated methods, AdaSP demonstrates the strongest robustness, achieving 93.0% and 88.5% mAP on VRU-Large, and 88.7% and 76.2% mAP on UAV-VeID-Test under foggy and rainy conditions, respectively. Overall, our findings show that simulated adverse weather substantially increases the difficulty of UAV-based vehicle ReID, reveals clear robustness differences among recent methods, and highlights the need for weather-aware model design and evaluation protocols in future aerial ReID research. The code is released at https://github.com/tranminhvu945/Benchmarking-ReID.

Robust 3D object detection in adverse weather conditions is challenging due to sensor limitations. Although combining complementary modalities such as LiDAR and 4D RADAR has shown promise, the sparsity of these sensors becomes apparent in adverse weather with reduced reflections, leading to objects with few or no point cloud returns. To address this limitation, camera sensors provide visual cues even when LiDAR and RADAR signals are weakened. However, cameras themselves are also vulnerable to adverse weather, where some regions become unreliable due to snow or rain occluding the camera lens. While some camera-fusion methods designed for adverse weather learn to weigh image regions via confidence maps, these maps receive no direct supervision and are learned solely through the detection loss. We introduce Reliability-Aware Fusion (RAF), which explicitly supervises per-pixel reliability estimation and provides a direct learning signal for identifying and suppressing unreliable visual cues. Our framework leverages pretrained LiDAR-RADAR networks, keeping their backbones frozen while only training the added camera branch, BEV fusion encoder, and detection head. Extensive experiments on the K-Radar and VoD datasets demonstrate that integrating RAF consistently improves detection accuracy over LiDAR-RADAR baselines, achieving up to +6.5 $AP_{BEV}$ and +7.4 $AP_{3D}$ gains. Code is available at https://github.com/parkie0517/RAF.

Existing ViT-based weather forecasting models apply uniform computation across all spatial tokens, even though nearby atmospheric grid points often contain similar values and large regions evolve smoothly over time. This makes much of the intermediate per-token computation redundant. Standard token-efficiency methods, such as pruning or merging, reduce cost by removing or fusing tokens. However, weather forecasting is a spatiotemporal dense prediction problem in which a history of atmospheric states must be mapped to future values on the original latitude-longitude grid. Thus, every grid cell must retain a physically meaningful representation, especially under autoregressive rollout. We introduce Sparse-Reslim, a parameter-free plug-in routing module that makes sparse token processing compatible with this fixed-grid requirement. Sparse-Reslim routes only 25% of spatial tokens through the expensive middle transformer blocks and treats those blocks as residual updates: it computes the change produced for the routed tokens and scatters only this delta back to the full sequence. Unselected tokens keep their pre-routing representations exactly, so no grid cell is dropped or replaced by a mask token, and no fusion layer or additional parameters are introduced. Across ERA5 resolutions up to the operational 0.25\textdegree{} standard and two model families, a deterministic Transformer and a diffusion model, Sparse-Reslim improves forecast accuracy on every evaluated variable while substantially reducing cost: training is about 2.5x faster in the main settings and reaches 3.18x speedup at 0.25\textdegree{}, with over 2.2x lower peak memory. A controlled decomposition shows that the accuracy gain comes primarily from sparse routing itself, while random token selection provides an additional regularization benefit without selector overhead.

Robust 3D object detection under adverse weather remains a critical hurdle for autonomous driving. Despite progress with LiDAR-4D radar fusion, most methods are constrained by a closed-world assumption, implicitly requiring training and test weather to align in both type and severity. This premise fails in practice: the open-ended nature of weather, and even variations within a single type like rain, cause dramatically different LiDAR degradation patterns, leading to significant performance drops in unseen conditions. To address this, we present Dual-Critic Guided Diffusion Alignment (DCDA), a weather-agnostic framework that learns to recover degraded LiDAR features toward a clean manifold. Rather than modeling specific weather types, DCDA employs a 4D radar-conditioned diffusion process to progressively refine features, guided by two complementary critics. (i) A detection-guided critic, anchored by a pre-trained clean-weather model, ensures that the refined features retain object-level discriminability and localization accuracy. (ii) A weather adversarial critic enforces holistic distributional consistency with clean-weather representations. By aligning features through semantic and distributional constraints rather than explicit weather modeling, DCDA generalizes effectively to unseen weather types and severities without requiring paired data or weather labels. We further introduce a structured open-weather benchmark with held-out type-severity combinations and extensive experiments verify DCDA's advantages.

Domain adaptive visual object tracking under adverse weather conditions has garnered significant attention in recent years. Despite the impressive performance, existing methods heavily rely on the large-scale video frames from both source and target domains, which is impractical under rigid resource constraints where source data is unavailable. To overcome this limitation, we propose SFDATrack, a generalized source-free domain adaptive tracker that merely leverages adverse weather samples from the target domain for robust state estimation. Specifically, SFDATrack first employs a mean-teacher backbone with Dual Interactive Mamba (DIM) blocks to distill the candidate target tokens that are resilient to weather variations from classified, augmented samples. Afterwards, we introduce a hyperspherical prototype projection (HPP) module to project these tokens onto multi-domain prototypes within a latent hyperspherical space. By enforcing both domain-specific and domain-invariant properties of the multi-domain prototypes, SFDATrack can be seamlessly adapted to diverse weather conditions with powerful generalizability. Extensive experiments evaluated on various benchmarks demonstrate that SFDATrack achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/watcherBR0/sfdatrack.

Object detection under adverse weather remains challenging due to severe visual degradations and domain shifts. Existing enhancer-based approaches attempt to improve detection by cascading an enhancer with a detector, but they introduce redundant feature extraction and incur high computational cost with limited accuracy gains when paired with SOTA detectors. We propose FR-DETR, a detector-centric framework that refines features rather than images, focusing enhancement on regions of interest and leveraging frequency-domain cues. Specifically, we design (I) a Frequency Refinement Module that dynamically separates and reweights low- and high-frequency components to improve foreground-background discrimination, and (II) a Recurrent Focus Refinement Module (RFRM) that iteratively refines features using coarse predictions as guidance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that FR-DETR achieves superior detection accuracy under adverse weather while being significantly more computationally efficient than enhancer-based methods. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/ducnt1210/FR-DETR.

Recent advances in AI-driven weather and climate modeling have improved forecast skill while reducing computational cost. However, existing data-driven approaches are limited in their ability to model coupled Earth system dynamics, which is required for extending predictability beyond the ~2-week horizon. To address this, we introduce NIVA, a multimodal foundation model designed to learn unified representations across Earth system components. While the full framework targets atmosphere, ocean, ice, and land interactions, we focus here on a two-modality setting (ocean and atmosphere) as a controlled proof of concept to evaluate whether foundation models can learn coupled dynamics. Trained on large-scale Earth system simulations, NIVA learns physically meaningful cross-modal structure, providing a foundation for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. As initial validation, we show that NIVA captures key modes of climate variability through accurate prediction of major climate indices.

Multi-modality image fusion (MMIF) enhances scene representation by exploiting complementary cues from different modalities. Adverse weather, however, causes significant image degradation, disrupting feature representation and requiring simultaneous feature restoration and cross-modal complementarity. Existing methods often struggle with effective representation learning under such conditions, limiting their practical performance. To address these challenges, we propose a mask-guided MMIF method that integrates feature restoration and interaction. We first introduce "Pseudo Ground Truth" to simplify training, promoting faster and more effective feature learning. Then, we design a mask generation mechanism based on the mapping relationship between the fused result and the source images, quantifying the relative contribution of each modality during the fusion process. By incorporating the proposed mask-guided cross-modal cross-attention mechanism, the network is encouraged to selectively attend to informative features during modality interaction, mitigating the risk of overfitting to the static distribution of the "Pseudo Ground Truth". Additionally, we propose a mask-guided learning strategy and a task-coupled degradation-aware learning strategy to balance feature restoration and interaction. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art approaches in visual quality, quantitative metrics, and downstream tasks. The source code is available at https://github.com/ixilai/AMG-Fuse.

State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets. This restricts usage for under-resourced groups and severely limits fast model iteration. Here we develop Otter Weather, a highly efficient spatiotemporal forecasting model designed to democratise high-performance weather prediction with AI. Evaluated on ERA5 reanalysis data at 1.5° resolution using standard WeatherBench protocols, the Otter family significantly advances the skill-compute Pareto frontier. The deterministic version outperforms the best NWP baseline by 9.6% at a 24-hour lead time while requiring fewer than 3.5 A100-days for training. It provides a 2x efficiency gain over lightweight AI models and a 100-fold reduction in compute compared to resource-intensive frontier architectures. We extend these efficiency gains into probabilistic forecasting by training via the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Scaling to a larger architecture, Otter-XL achieves a 9.7% CRPS improvement over the IFS ENS baseline. This yields an almost two-fold increase in predictive skill over comparable lightweight models at similar compute budgets. Otter-XL also outperforms frontier architectures like GenCast by over 2%, while using an order of magnitude less compute. Finally, Otter is applied out-of-the-box to a complex acoustic scattering PDE task where it outperforms a state-of-the-art foundation modelling approach, suggesting that the advances made here might apply across a range of scientific domains.

Video world models are moving toward preserving an observed world under controllable camera and object motion while allowing its environmental state to change. Yet these controls remain isolated, and weather generation typically relies on a source video or reconstructed scene that already specifies future structure. We study a first-frame-anchored source-to-state setting, where the model starts from a single image and follows explicit camera and object controls and an optional weather instruction, then generates a video that either preserves the source world or transfers it to a target weather state. To address these challenges, we first build HoloStateData, a state video dataset that turns diverse videos into unified control samples for camera, object, and weather supervision. Second, we introduce Holo-World, a unified controllable video world model that jointly controls the scene from a single image. Its Unified Scene Adapter factorizes world preservation and weather transfer into distinct parameter subspaces, using rendered background, geometry buffers, and object controls to maintain controlled scene structure while modeling weather-dependent appearance and particle effects. Additionally, Scene-Weather Decomposed CFG guides scene and weather residuals separately, strengthening target weather effects without over-amplifying the full condition. Quantitative and qualitative experiments demonstrate that Holo-World maintains precise camera and object controls with consistent scene structure while transferring scenes into diverse target weather states, outperforming video-to-video weather editing baselines on weather-state generation. Our project page is available at https://xiangchenyin.github.io/Holo-World/

In this paper, we introduce DenseControl, a novel pipeline for generating dense crowd images. Specifically, DenseControl meticulously positions and sizes each generated instance to align precisely with the predefined coordinates and scales. Based on this, we further allow for control over the background, style, and attributes of instances. The motivation behind DenseControl stems from the observation of two main challenges in synthesizing crowd images: controlling signal embedding and maintaining topological integrity when imparting instance scale guidance. To address these, we first introduce the Isolated Object Embedding (IOE) map, a novel representation that facilitates spatial location control while mitigating the difficulties associated with learning projections for model. Secondly, we propose an Implicit Scale Embedding (ISE) strategy that seamlessly integrates with the IOE map to encode precise scale information. To further enhance the efficacy of combining ISE with the IOE map, we incorporate a Position Shortcut mechanism that enhances cross-attention to alleviate projection challenges. We evaluate DenseControl through two lenses: synthesis quality and applicability in latent applications. Experiments across different control conditions demonstrate DenseControl achieves state-of-the-art results in dense crowd image synthesis. Furthermore, we showcase applications in augmenting crowd analysis under data scarcity, transfer learning, and weather generalization scenes, to highlight the practical utility of DenseControl. The codebase will be released.

In modern vehicular systems, robust performance under harsh conditions has become a critical problem of autonomous driving. Our study delivers a comprehensive evaluation of the newest iteration of the YOLO series, which is YOLOv11 Nano architecture benchmarked against the widely adopted YOLOv8 Nano as a baseline on a custom fused dataset that combines the Indian Driving Dataset (IDD) [1] and Berkeley Deep Drive Dataset (BDD100K) [2]. We have analyzed the trade-offs among detection accuracy, inference speed, and computational efficiency in high-entropy scenarios involving dense mixed traffic, rain, and low-light conditions. Specifically, YOLOv11n achieves a mean Average Precision (mAP@50) of 46.6%, with a notable 3.2% improvement in Precision over the baseline, effectively reducing false positives in cluttered scenes. Furthermore, the proposed model exhibits enhanced energy efficiency, requiring 22% fewer FLOPs (6.3G vs. 8.1G) while maintaining real-time inference speed of 70.9 FPS on a Tesla T4 GPU, offering an optimal trade-off for safety-critical edge deployment.

The paradigm of global weather forecasting is rapidly shifting with the emergence of Machine Learning Weather Prediction models (MLWP). While these data-driven architectures demonstrate remarkable global skill, regional benchmarks in the Global South remain scarce, leaving their efficacy in complex, highly convective environments largely unverified. This study evaluates the performance of GraphCast operational against the deterministic ECMWF IFS HRES as baseline across four distinct Brazilian climatic sub-regions. Utilizing a scalable, cloud-native pipeline and the WeatherBench-X framework for benchmarking weather models, we assess selected tropospheric variables ($T_{850}$, $Q_{850}$, $Z_{500}$) over four selected seasonal windows, employing the operational IFS analysis as the ground truth to calculate the statistical metrics for both models. Results reveal a regime-dependent skill profile. During the austral winter, GraphCast underperforms in the medium range (lead days 2-7) for $Z_{500}$ when resolving fast-propagating baroclinic systems over southern Brazil, but regains an advantage in the extended range, where its inherent smoothing of chaotic small-scale variability becomes beneficial under deterministic skill metrics. Conversely, during the austral summer wet season, GraphCast accurately captures large-scale moisture transport while intrinsically dampening the high-frequency convective variability that degrades deterministic NWP temperature forecasts. These findings establish a baseline for Brazil and define the specific physical boundaries that will guide future ``tropicalization'' efforts, aiming to optimize these foundational AI models for regional resilience.

Deep learning weather models now match numerical weather prediction accuracy while running orders of magnitude faster, but produce deterministic forecasts without uncertainty estimates, a critical gap for high-stakes decisions during extreme weather events. This paper proposes Neural Tangent Kernel-based uncertainty quantification (NTK-UQ) using last-layer empirical features. Theoretical analysis predicts that UQ quality is architecture-dependent through two mechanisms. First, a variance collapse mechanism explains when UQ fails: when the eigenvalue truncation rank approaches the effective rank of the feature space, the GP correction term consumes nearly all prior variance, destroying discrimination between tropical cyclones and routine conditions; architectures with concentrated spectra (spectral operators) require aggressive truncation ($k \leq 10$), while attention-based models tolerate full-rank computation. Second, decomposition performance depends on the non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed structure of extreme weather: Independent Component Analysis exploits higher-order statistics (kurtosis, negentropy) to isolate heavy-tailed extreme-event features, achieving higher discrimination than singular value decomposition, which captures only second-order variance. A data-driven selection rule chooses ICA or SVD from the feature eigenspectrum concentration ratio, correctly prescribing the superior decomposition for all four evaluated architectures. Compared to split conformal prediction (the natural post-hoc baseline), NTK-UQ achieves 31--37% sharper prediction intervals at 90% coverage, and uniquely produces \emph{adaptive} intervals that scale with extreme event severity, which conformal prediction cannot achieve by construction. The framework requires no retraining; inference-time uncertainty requires only a single matrix-vector product per sample.

Cooperative perception is important for autonomous driving but remains fragile when cameras and LiDAR degrade in adverse weather. We address this challenge by integrating 4D imaging radar as a weather-robust modality into collaborative perception and introducing a Doppler-guided spatial attention mechanism for multi-agent fusion. Our approach extends two representative backbones: a radar-camera pipeline where radar substitutes LiDAR, and a LiDAR-radar pipeline where radar complements LiDAR. To support evaluation, we release radar-augmented benchmarks, OPV2V-R and Adver-City-R, with physics-based LiDAR degradation. Experiments show strong robustness gains in fog and rain, including substantial improvements when radar replaces degraded LiDAR. Additional validation on MAN TruckScenes demonstrates transfer beyond simulation. Overall, our results highlight 4D imaging radar as a robust modality for all-weather collaborative perception. Dataset and code are available at: https://url.fzi.de/SlimComm.

Deep neural network (DNN)-based object detectors are widely used for analyzing aerial and satellite imagery in applications such as environmental monitoring and urban analytics. Despite their strong performance, these models are known to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, and physical adversarial attacks using printable patterns pose realistic security threats. In this paper, we evaluate physical adversarial patch attacks against an aerial vehicle detector by bridging digital optimization and real-world deployment. Adversarial patches are optimized in the digital domain using a loss function that minimizes the maximum objectness score while incorporating non-printability score (NPS) and total variation (TV) constraints to ensure both printability and spatial smoothness. The optimized patches are printed and deployed in three configurations: ON, OFF, and OFF-Side. Experiments using a YOLOv3 detector show that while the OFF patch achieves the highest effectiveness in the digital domain (85.51% Average Objectness Reduction Rate (AORR)), the ON patch demonstrates superior robustness in physical environments (0.197-0.343 Objectness Score Ratio (OSR)) due to its consistent visibility. Furthermore, our results indicate that weather-based augmentation does not necessarily improve patch optimization in this domain. These findings provide critical insights into the practical vulnerabilities of aerial object detection systems.

This paper describes our approach for the 8th UG2+ Workshop (CVPR 2026) Track~2, which targets semantic segmentation of outdoor scenes degraded by five weather conditions: blur, darkness, snow, haze, and glare. A central challenge we observe is a severe generalization gap -- models that perform well on the validation set often collapse on the test set. For instance, SegFormer-B5 drops 16.1 mIoU points from validation to test, suggesting that model capacity alone is insufficient for robustness. We investigate whether a carefully designed training recipe, rather than architectural complexity, can address this gap. Starting from a pre-trained SegMAN-S backbone, we systematically study the effects of domain-adaptive fine-tuning, multi-source data mixing, scene-balanced sampling, and synthetic degradation augmentation. Our final system achieves 59.9% mIoU on the official test set while maintaining a validation-test gap of only 6.5 points -- less than half that of larger models. We analyze negative results from architectural modifications, loss function variants, and model scaling to provide practical insights for weather-robust segmentation under limited data.

Reliable forecasting of renewable energy generation is a foundational requirement for grid stability energy trading battery scheduling and carbon aware operational planning Solar and wind resources are inherently intermittent their output fluctuates with cloud cover wind speed atmospheric turbulence seasonal patterns and local terrain The proliferation of IoT and edge devices spanning smart meters inverters anemometers pyranometers weather stations and grid interface sensors has created an unprecedented volume of real time operational data that conventional forecasting pipelines are ill equipped to exploit fully This review investigates how large language model LLM agents can enhance renewable energy forecasting by integrating heterogeneous sensor streams weather API data historical generation records grid constraints and contextual reasoning into unified decision support workflows We survey classical forecasting methods statistical time series models deep learning architectures physics hybrid approaches and emerging LLM agent frameworks for explanation uncertainty communication and operator guidance A six layer taxonomy is proposed covering data acquisition preprocessing feature engineering model inference uncertainty estimation and natural language reporting The review identifies twelve open challenges spanning real time deployment model drift under distribution shift uncertainty quantification hallucination control in LLM agents interoperability of edge hardware and integration with energy management systems The paper concludes by recommending a research agenda centred on open benchmarks physics informed LLM grounding and federated forecasting architectures

Accurate and efficient time-series forecasting remains a challenging problem for both classical and quantum neural architectures, particularly in multivariate environmental settings. This work adapts the Quantum Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (QLIF) spiking neural network for time-series regression tasks, specifically short-term multivariate weather forecasting. We extend QLIF beyond classification and demonstrate its applicability to continuous-valued prediction problems. The QLIF-CAST model encodes neuron excitation states as single-qubit quantum superpositions, driven by Rx rotation gates and T1 relaxation decay, and is embedded within a hybrid quantum-classical recurrent architecture. We conduct two distinct evaluations. First, a controlled comparison against a parameter-matched classical LIF baseline on a multivariate weather dataset shows that QLIF-CAST achieves 15.4% lower MSE and 4.4% lower MAE, demonstrating that quantum neuronal dynamics reduce prediction error over classical equivalents. Second, a cross-domain comparative analysis with state-of-the-art quantum LSTM (QLSTM) and quantum neural network (QNN) models on air quality and wind speed benchmarks reveals that QLIF-CAST converges in up to 94% less training time, occupying a distinct position in the speed-error trade-off space. Hardware verification on IBM Marrakesh (156-qubit QPU) confirms reliable circuit execution with only 1.2% average deviation from simulation.

While multi-modal 3D semantic occupancy prediction typically enhances robustness by fusing camera and LiDAR inputs, its effectiveness is fundamentally constrained by environmental variability. Specifically, camera sensors suffer from severe low-light degradation, while LiDAR sensors encounter significant backscatter noise during heavy precipitation. These adverse conditions create a modality trust problem, as static fusion strategies fail to adaptively re-weight inputs when a specific sensor becomes unreliable. To address this, we propose a VLM-assisted framework leveraging the pre-trained CLIP latent space to guide multi-sensor integration via linguistic environmental cues. We utilize a parameter-efficient adapter to align weather-specific text embeddings with sensor features, coupled with a gating strategy that decomposes environmental uncertainty into two factors: visibility and illumination. This enables the model to dynamically modulate the fusion ratio - prioritizing semantic camera features in clear daylight and shifting to geometric LiDAR priors during rainy nights. Evaluations on the nuScenes dataset demonstrate the versatility of our approach, as implementing our proposed framework on the OccMamba and M-CONet architectures achieves mIoU scores of 26.3 and 21.1, respectively, significantly outperforming their traditional baselines.

Adverse weather removal (AWR) in real-world images remains challenging due to heterogeneous and unseen degradations, while distortion-driven training often yields overly smooth results. We propose PVRF, a unified framework that integrates zero-shot soft weather perceptions with velocity-constrained rectified-flow refinement. PVRF introduces an AWR-specific question answering module (AWR-QA) that uses frozen vision--language models (VLMs) to estimate soft probabilities of weather types and low-level attribute scores. These perceptions condition restoration networks via attribute-modulated normalization (AMN) and weather-weighted adapters (WWA), producing an anchor estimate for refinement. We then learn a terminal-consistent residual rectified flow with perception-adaptive source perturbation and a terminal-consistent velocity parameterization to stabilize learning near the terminal regime. Extensive experiments show that PVRF improves both fidelity and perceptual quality over state-of-the-art baselines, with strong cross-dataset generalization on single and combined degradations. Code will be released at https://github.com/dongw22/PVRF.

Image restoration under multiple adverse weather conditions aims to develop a single model to recover the underlying scene with high visibility. Weather-related artifacts vary with the particle's distance to the camera according to the established scene visibility analysis, where close and faraway regions are more affected by falling drops and fog effects, respectively. Existing methods fail to consider this weather-specific physical visual process; thus, the restoration performance is limited. In this work, we analyze the common visual factors in adverse weather conditions and present a unified imaging model that considers the individually visible particles and fog-like aggregate scattering effects. Further, we design a novel weather-prior-based network, which leverages the weather-related prior information to help recover the scene by enhancing the features using the estimated occlusion and transmission. Experimental results in multiple adverse scenarios show the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art methods.

Object detection in adverse weather is critical for the safety of autonomous vehicles; however, the scarcity of labelled, real-world foggy data remains a significant bottleneck. In this paper, we propose Clear2Fog (C2F), an end-to-end, physics-based pipeline that simulates fog on clear-weather datasets while ensuring cross-modal consistency across camera and LiDAR. C2F combines monocular depth estimation with a novel atmospheric light estimation method to improve the physical consistency of synthetic fog generation while reducing structural artifacts and chromatic biases observed in existing frameworks. Utilising a training set of 270,000 images from the Waymo Open Dataset, we conduct an extensive data efficiency study to investigate whether environmental diversity can reduce dataset scale requirements and improve model generalisation under varying fog conditions. Our findings reveal that models trained on mixed-density fog datasets at 75% scale achieve comparable detection performance to those trained on fixed-density datasets at 100% scale, reducing synthetic training data requirements by 25%. We observe that this efficiency trend is consistent across two representative detector architectures. Furthermore, we investigate the sim-to-real transfer by using C2F-generated data as a pre-training foundation before fine-tuning on real-world fog data. We demonstrate that, within the evaluated settings, a relative 10x increase in the default fine-tuning learning rate reduces the negative transfer caused by standard fine-tuning, achieving up to a 1.17 mAP point improvement beyond the real-only baseline. Overall, this work demonstrates the value of diverse synthetic fog as a pre-training tool for real-world adaptation.

Accurate weather forecast reporting enables individuals and communities to better plan daily activities and agricultural operations. However, the current reporting process primarily relies on manual analysis of multi-source data, which leads to information overload and reduced efficiency. With the development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), leveraging data-driven models to analyze and generate reports in the weather forecasting domain remains largely underexplored. In this work, we propose the Weather Forecasting Report (WFR) task and construct the first instruction-tuning dataset for this task, named~\DatasetNameL, which covers 31 cities in America and 8 weather aspects. Based on this corpus, we develop the first model, \ModelNameL, specialized in generating weather forecast reports. Evaluation across multiple metrics on our dataset shows that \ModelNameL~ consistently outperforms leading closed-source MLLMs, particularly on structurally complex weather aspects. We further analyze its performance across diverse geographic regions and weather aspects. \ModelNameL~ demonstrates strong transferability across different regions, highlighting its zero-shot generalization capability. \ModelNameL~offers valuable insight for developing MLLMs specialized in weather report generation. .

Flight delays impose cascading operational and financial burdens across the aviation network, costing the U.S. economy billions of dollars annually by disrupting interconnected aircraft rotation systems. While prior machine learning approaches have demonstrated strong predictive performance, most treat upstream delays as static input variables rather than explicitly modeling how delays propagate dynamically through aircraft rotation chains, and none have deployed such systems alongside a live weather-aware conversational AI interface for end-user interaction. This paper presents FlightSense, an end-to-end MLOps platform for real-time flight delay prediction built through a progressive three-version feature engineering framework. Version 1 trains an XGBoost classifier on 11 schedule-based features establishing a baseline ROC AUC of 0.732 on 7.07 million BTS 2018 On-Time Performance records. Version 2 introduces 11 delay propagation features derived from aircraft rotation chains via tail-number tracking, yielding the dominant performance gain (AUC 0.732 to 0.875) and surpassing the single-stage XGBoost baseline reported by Zhou (2025). Version 3 integrates five NOAA meteorological features across 10 major U.S. airports, achieving a final test set AUC of 0.879. FlightSense is deployed as a production AWS MLOps pipeline incorporating live weather ingestion via Lambda, real-time SageMaker inference, an interactive Streamlit dashboard, and an Amazon Bedrock Nova Micro conversational assistant answering natural-language delay queries via a tool-use architecture.

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) temperature forecasts, spanning several weeks to a few months, are critically needed in agriculture practice, energy planning, and extreme-weather induced risk management, yet their reliability varies substantially across seasons and regions. Forecast skill is often attributed primarily to lead time, but this perspective does not fully explain the spatiotemporal patterns of predictability. Here we show that S2S predictability is organized across interacting temporal components, spatial heterogeneity, and large-scale pattern coherence, and that this structure can be explicitly characterized and exploited. We develop a dual-scale learning framework that separates calendar-aligned historical climate context from lead-time matched recent weather evolution, combining them through spatially adaptive fusion to enable stable temperature forecasts across the 30 to 90-day window. The learned fusion weights reveal that the balance between these two temporal scales shifts systematically with season and geography: during winter, interannual context dominates over high latitudes and complex terrain where forecast is the most difficult, while summer predictions reflect a more balanced temporal contribution across the domain. This spatially explicit reorganization of predictability, rather than simple lead-time decay, emerges as the primary determinant of forecast skill within the subseasonal window. Topology-aware structural constraints further improve spatial coherence of predicted temperature fields, stabilizing large-scale pattern organization particularly over complex terrain. These results reframe S2S predictability as a structured, multi-scale phenomenon, providing a more interpretable foundation for improving forecast systems and informing their use in practice.

Synthetic data has transformed language model training, yet its role in time series forecasting remains poorly understood. We present a large-scale empirical study: nine experiment groups, 4,218 runs systematically evaluating synthetic time series augmentation across five architectures, four synthetic signals and seven datasets. The effect is sharply architecture-conditional: channel-mixing models (TimesNet, iTransformer) benefit in the majority of trials, while channel-independent models (DLinear, PatchTST) are consistently degraded. In selected low-resource settings the gains are striking: TimesNet trained on only 10% of Weather data with synthetic augmentation surpasses the full-data baseline (4 of 16 sparsity-dataset combinations). Averaged across all architectures, augmentation hurts in 67% of trials. We further find that only the Seasonal-Trend generator reliably helps across the tested benchmarks, and that hard curriculum switching is actively harmful (+24% MSE degradation). These results provide concrete, actionable guidelines on how to use synthetic data: use synthetic augmentation with channel-mixing architectures, use gradual annealing schedules, and treat low-resource augmentation as architecture- and dataset-dependent. Code is available at \href{https://github.com/hugoiscracked/synthetic-ts/tree/main}

Nationwide road-incident forecasting is a systems problem before it is a modeling problem. A usable service must connect historical incident archives, historicalandliveweather,nationalroadgeometry, offline model training, tile generation, web serving and runtime handoff. This paper presents Road Risk Monitor, a U.S.-wide road-safety stack that combines a nationwide H3 baseline trained on FARS fatal-crash data with a road-segment forecasting pipeline trained from TIGER/Line geometry and US-Accidents events, then serves predictions through live APIs, raster tiles, JSON road tiles, and a public web application.

Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified before deployment. Although AI weather models are rapidly evolving, much of their evaluation is currently done either with a global-scale evaluation or by hand-picking a small number of case studies or a region. A widely-used open-source benchmark suite focusing on high-impact weather will help to drive the science forward for all scales of weather models, as it has for other AI fields. Here we introduce Extreme Weather Bench (EWB), a new community-driven benchmark suite that facilitates model validation and verification on a variety of high-impact hazards that matter to people around the globe. EWB provides a standard set of case studies (spanning across multiple spatial and temporal scales and different parts of the weather spectrum), observational data, impact-based metrics, and open-source code for users to evaluate their models. Verifying that a model works against a standard set of case studies, especially events that are high-impact for the general public, is a key piece of improving the trustworthiness of AI models. EWB will help to drive the science forward for all weather models, enabling true comparisons across models and evaluating models on specific high-impact phenomena through the use of case studies. EWB is a free open-source community-driven system and will continue to evolve to include additional phenomena, test cases and metrics in collaboration with the worldwide weather and forecast verification community.

The performance of state-of-the-art object detectors degrades significantly under adverse weather, causing a safety-critical domain shift problem for autonomous vehicles. Recent efforts address this problem by relying on synthetic data to train the object detectors, which limits their real-world applicability. Meanwhile, pseudo-labeling is widely used for cross-dataset domain adaptation problems. However, these methods have not been exploited by weather-based domain adaptation approaches due to the noisy nature of such labels generated under harsh weather conditions. In this paper, we propose two new approaches to mitigate this weather-induced domain shift. First, we propose a Weather-Induced pseudo Label Denoising (WILD) framework that filters noisy pseudo labels generated by real data captured under adverse weather conditions. Second, we develop a novel hybrid training methodology, WILD SAM, that exploits both pseudo-label denoising and simulation-based training solutions while using real-data from the target harsh-weather domain. We validate both proposed approaches, WILD and WILD SAM, on the recently released Four Seasons dataset across rainy and snowy scenarios. Experiments show that the proposed frameworks improve Average Precision (AP) up to 13% and significantly reduce the weather-induced performance gap relative to the baseline. The code is available at: https://github.com/Kh-Hamed/WILD-SAM

Federated weather modeling on sensor data is a distributed system underpinned by federated learning, enabling multiple sensor data sources, including ground weather stations, satellites and IoT devices, to collaboratively train deep learning models without sharing raw data. This method safeguards data privacy and security while leverages diverse, geographically distributed datasets to improve the accuracy and robustness of global/regional weather modeling tasks such as forecasting and anomaly detection.

Large-scale IoT weather sensing networks require incentive mechanisms to sustain participation, yet determining how much value individual data contributions bring to the network remains an open problem. Existing approaches address data quality but not data valuation; in operational meteorology, adjoint-based methods derive value from the forecast model itself but require full data assimilation infrastructure. We propose to utilise differentiable AI weather models to fill this gap and characterise gradient-based attribution on gridded GFS analysis inputs as a candidate value signal, evaluating fidelity, calibration, cost, and gaming vulnerability across more than 400 configurations. Attribution captures near-optimal sensor placement utility with monotonically faithful payments, but can be inflated by adversarial inputs, with detection requiring external baseline data. These findings establish gradient attribution as a computationally validated signal for model-informed reward allocation in participatory weather sensing.

Operational weather prediction has long relied on physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP), whose accuracy comes at the cost of substantial compute and complex simulation workflows. Recent transformer-based forecasters offer efficient data-driven alternatives, however transformers are physics-agnostic models. Additionally, standard transformer encoders evolve representations through discrete layer updates that may be less suited to modeling smooth latent dynamics. In this work, we propose a continuous-depth transformer encoder for weather forecasting that integrates Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) dynamics within each encoder block. Specifically, we replace discrete residual updates with ODE-based updates solved using adaptive numerical integration. We also introduce a two-branch attention module that combines conventional patch-wise self-attention with an auxiliary branch that applies a derivative operator to attention logits, providing an additional change-sensitive interaction signal. To further align forecasts with governing principles, we propose a customized physics-informed training objective that enforces physical consistency as a soft constraint. We evaluate the proposed method against a standard discrete transformer baseline and an existing continuous-time Neural ODE forecasting variant, demonstrating the importance of PINN-Cast in short term weather forecasting.

This study aims to develop and improve machine learning-based post-processing models for precipitation, temperature, and wind speed predictions using the Mesoscale Model (MSM) dataset provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for 18 locations across Japan, including plains, mountainous regions, and islands. By incorporating meteorological variables from grid points surrounding the target locations as input features and applying feature selection based on correlation analysis, we found that, in our experimental setting, the LightGBM-based models achieved lower RMSE than the specific neural-network baselines tested in this study, including a reproduced CNN baseline, and also generally achieved lower RMSE than both the raw MSM forecasts and the JMA post-processing product, MSM Guidance (MSMG), across many locations and forecast lead times. Because precipitation has a highly skewed distribution with many zero cases, we additionally examined Tweedie-based loss functions and event-weighted training strategies for precipitation forecasting. These improved event-oriented performance relative to the original LightGBM model, especially at higher rainfall thresholds, although the gains were site dependent and overall performance remained slightly below MSMG.

Perception robustness under adverse weather remains a critical challenge for autonomous driving, with the core bottleneck being the scarcity of real-world video data in adverse weather. Existing weather generation approaches struggle to balance visual quality and annotation reusability. We present AutoAWG, a controllable Adverse Weather video Generation framework for Autonomous driving. Our method employs a semantics-guided adaptive fusion of multiple controls to balance strong weather stylization with high-fidelity preservation of safety-critical targets; leverages a vanishing point-anchored temporal synthesis strategy to construct training sequences from static images, thereby reducing reliance on synthetic data; and adopts masked training to enhance long-horizon generation stability. On the nuScenes validation set, AutoAWG significantly outperforms prior state-of-the-art methods: without first-frame conditioning, FID and FVD are relatively reduced by 50.0% and 16.1%; with first-frame conditioning, they are further reduced by 8.7% and 7.2%, respectively. Extensive qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate advantages in style fidelity, temporal consistency, and semantic--structural integrity, underscoring the practical value of AutoAWG for improving downstream perception in autonomous driving. Our code is available at: https://github.com/higherhu/AutoAWG

In this paper, we present three neural network architectures designed for real-time classification of weather conditions (sunny, rain, snow, fog) from images. These models, inspired by recent advances in style transfer, aim to capture the stylistic elements present in images. One model, called "Multi-PatchGAN", is based on PatchGANs used in well-known architectures such as Pix2Pix and CycleGAN, but here adapted with multiple patch sizes for detection tasks. The second model, "Truncated ResNet50", is a simplified version of ResNet50 retaining only its first nine layers. This truncation, determined by an evolutionary algorithm, facilitates the extraction of high-frequency features essential for capturing subtle stylistic details. Finally, we propose "Truncated ResNet50 with Gram Matrix and Attention", which computes Gram matrices for each layer during training and automatically weights them via an attention mechanism, thus optimizing the extraction of the most relevant stylistic expressions for classification. These last two models outperform the state of the art and demonstrate remarkable generalization capability on several public databases. Although developed for weather detection, these architectures are also suitable for other appearance-based classification tasks, such as animal species recognition, texture classification, disease detection in medical imaging, or industrial defect identification.

While deep learning-based weather forecasting paradigms have made significant strides, addressing extreme weather diagnostics remains a formidable challenge. This gap exists primarily because the diagnostic process demands sophisticated multi-step logical reasoning, dynamic tool invocation, and expert-level prior judgment. Although agents possess inherent advantages in task decomposition and autonomous execution, current architectures are still hampered by critical bottlenecks: inadequate expert knowledge integration, a lack of professional-grade iterative reasoning loops, and the absence of fine-grained validation and evaluation systems for complex workflows under extreme conditions. To this end, we propose HVR-Met, a multi-agent meteorological diagnostic system characterized by the deep integration of expert knowledge. Its central innovation is the ``Hypothesis-Verification-Replanning'' closed-loop mechanism, which facilitates sophisticated iterative reasoning for anomalous meteorological signals during extreme weather events. To bridge gaps within existing evaluation frameworks, we further introduce a novel benchmark focused on atomic-level subtasks. Experimental evidence demonstrates that the system excels in complex diagnostic scenarios.

Near-surface weather varies over tens to hundreds of meters, yet remains unresolved in analyses and forecasts. We test whether this variation can be inferred without resolving atmospheric dynamics. Combining sparse weather stations, high-resolution Earth observation, and coarse atmospheric dynamics, we infer temperature, dewpoint, and wind at 30-m resolution across the contiguous United States. Against measurements held out in space and time, estimates reduce error by 11-28% relative to the strongest baseline. Within held-out $0.25^\circ$ grid cells, we recover more spatial variance than baselines, explaining nearly half of temperature variability in the median cell. The method captures time-varying differences between locations and produces coherent patterns associated with topography and land cover. Beyond weather, our findings illustrate how sparse observations of a dynamical system can be combined with dense observations of persistent environmental structure to recover otherwise unresolved spatial variability.

Until recently, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have stood rivalless in operational forecasting despite a few limitations. Namely, physically-based models are computationally demanding and struggle at short lead times, reducing their utility for nowcasting. Motivated by these shortcomings, recent work proposes AI-weather prediction (AI-WP) alternatives that emulate analysis data with neural networks. While these data-driven approaches have achieved high skill for medium-range forecasting-applications of AI-WP to precipitation and to nowcasting are less explored. To these ends, this paper discusses \textit{SaTformer}: a video transformer adapted for precipitation nowcasting. To ameliorate some problems related to what is essentially a fat-tailed regression task, we find it prudent to formulate nowcasting as a classification problem and employ a frequency-weighted loss. This straightforward approach scored first on the NeurIPS Weather4Cast 2025 ``Cumulative Rainfall'' challenge. Code and model weights are available: \texttt{\href{github.com/leharris3/w4c-25}{github.com/leharris3/satformer}}.

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP). However, those models still rely on initial conditions from NWP, putting an upper limit on their forecast abilities. A few end-to-end systems have since been proposed, but they have yet to match the forecast skill of state-of-the-art NWP competitors. In this work, we propose Huracan, an observation-driven weather forecasting system which combines an ensemble data assimilation model with a forecast model to produce highly accurate forecasts relying only on observations as inputs. Huracan is not only the first to provide ensemble initial conditions and end-to-end ensemble weather forecasts, but also the first end-to-end system to achieve an accuracy comparable with that of ECMWF ENS, the state-of-the-art NWP competitor, despite using a smaller amount of available observation data. Notably, Huracan matches or exceeds the continuous ranked probability score of ECMWF ENS on 80.2% of the variable and lead time combinations. Our work is a major step forward in end-to-end data-driven weather prediction and opens up opportunities for further improving and revolutionizing operational weather forecasting.