Trajectory Prediction

Manipulation in confined environments, such as threading a manipulator through narrow apertures, remains a fundamental challenge, especially for conventional rigid robots. Hybrid rigid-soft manipulators offer promise but face two compounding planning challenges: backbone shapes feasible in free space become infeasible under environmental contact, and planning rigid and soft segments independently ignores their kinematic coupling. We present THREAD, the first diffusion-based trajectory planner for hybrid manipulation, learning a generative prior over physically realizable backbone trajectories conditioned on local environment geometry, with physics-inspired losses encoding curvature, smoothness, and collision constraints jointly across both segments. Trained in simulation, THREAD achieves 92.4% task success with 5x fewer collisions than the strongest baseline. We show cross-embodiment real-world transfer with minimal online updates, successfully threading through apertures as small as 1.3x the soft segment diameter.

Long-horizon spacecraft trajectory forecasting suffers from error accumulation due to the absence of corrective observations in the forecast regime, making reliable uncertainty estimation crucial for safety-critical decision-making such as space domain awareness and conjunction assessment. While high-fidelity physics-based orbit propagators provide accurate deterministic forecasts, they typically lack calibrated uncertainty estimates over long horizons. We introduce a Predictor--Corrector framework in which a physics-based continuous-time $\textit{deterministic}$ forecaster is augmented with a learned continuous-time $\textit{probabilistic}$ Corrector that models forecast errors. The proposed Corrector can be wrapped around an existing deterministic propagator to improve forecast accuracy while producing sharp and calibrated full-covariance uncertainty estimates. The Corrector is based on Latent Neural Controlled Differential Equations (Latent NCDEs) and models the probabilistic temporal evolution of forecast errors in continuous time, naturally supporting irregular sampling and missing features. We further introduce a loss function that promotes calibration and sharpness in long-horizon uncertainty propagation. We evaluate the proposed framework on long-horizon spacecraft trajectory forecasting using real-world data from NASA's Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS), wrapping the Corrector around NASA's General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). Across forecast horizons of 2--4 days without observations and six rolling test windows, the proposed approach consistently improves accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to deterministic baselines and Latent ODE-based correctors, demonstrating the effectiveness of the continuous-time probabilistic Corrector for trajectory forecasting.

We study how trajectory-shape diversity in demonstrations affects imitation learning (IL) performance across models, tasks, and data scales. We introduce Geometric Entropy (H_G), a task-agnostic metric that quantifies the intrinsic diversity of transit trajectories after normalizing away extrinsic variation, such as goal pose and workspace scale, via target-frame alignment. Across multiple IL architectures and both simulated and real-robot contact-rich manipulation tasks, we observe a consistent inverted-U relationship between success and H_G: increasing geometric diversity improves robustness in low-diversity regimes but degrades performance once diversity induces strategy ambiguity. Moreover, the optimal entropy shifts toward lower values as task mastery increases through more data, easier tasks, or stronger priors, and for a pretrained vision-language-action model the trend becomes effectively monotonic decreasing. Practically, H_G enables fast pre-training auditing of demonstration datasets and offers a simple guideline for calibrating demonstrations toward the learnable regime.

Learning-based planners for sidewalk navigation can generate diverse candidate trajectories in real time, yet their scoring functions often fail to select the best trajectory in challenging situations, outputting trajectories that make the mobile robot drive onto grass, toward pedestrians, or in the wrong direction, even when better candidates exist in the same set. We call this the trajectory scoring gap: in real-world sidewalk navigation, the gap between an anchor-based planner's top choice and the best possible candidate is substantial, likely due to limited high-level scene understanding capability of the planner. Rather than replacing the planner with an end-to-end Vision-Language-Action model, we propose a VLM-Planner interface that uses a VLM to select a candidate index from the planner's proposal set and then fuse it with the planner's initial output. However, VLMs take 1--3s per query and so cannot directly drive a 5--20Hz control loop. We contribute a training-free, latency-resilient trajectory-level fusion layer that turns a stale VLM selection into real-time planner scoring via geometric similarity with exponential decay. On $\sim$2,000 challenging real-world scenarios (e.g., junctions, pedestrian encounters), VLM selection achieves 30% ADE reduction versus the planner's best selection, while the planner remains competitive in routine situations. In simulation, Score Fusion maintains >80% success rate with delays up to 5s. We demonstrate the full system on a mobile robot navigating challenging campus sidewalks with varied network latency.

Explicit skill libraries make computer-using agents easier to inspect, but it remains unclear whether such libraries can be mined from interaction data in a way that improves downstream policies. We study this question through a three-stage pipeline that segments GUI trajectories, clusters segments into candidate skills, and trains a skill-aware policy from the resulting annotations. The mined clusters are readable on the source benchmark: five of eight clusters have at least 0.95 purity against InteraSkill Workflows labels. However, readability does not imply transfer. GRPO improves IW skill-step accuracy only from 18.5% to 20.5%, leaves BrowseComp+ essentially unchanged, and underperforms trivial frequency priors on key source-domain metrics. We therefore present the method as a diagnostic study: trajectory mining can expose inspectable skill structure, but the current boundary detector, orderless segment representation, and offline reward model are insufficient for reliable cross-domain policy improvement.

Action chunking enables robot policies to produce temporally coherent behavior, but generating multi-step action sequences with flow-based policies incurs latency that is incompatible with real-time control. Under asynchronous execution, the robot continues executing the current chunk while the next one is generated, causing even minor delays to create inconsistencies at chunk boundaries. Existing methods address this problem by steering generation toward the already executed action prefix. We instead show that prefix consistency can be achieved by selecting an appropriate initial noise before generation begins, allowing the unmodified flow ODE to produce a coherent next chunk. This reframes asynchronous inference as a noise selection problem rather than a trajectory steering problem. We introduce \textbf{PAINT}, a training-free method that finds this noise via backward Euler inversion and constructs the final chunk through a repainting rule. In summary, \texttt{PAINT} requires no gradients, retraining, or policy modification; yet it improves execution consistency and task performance across \textit{12 simulated benchmarks} and \textit{6 real-world manipulation tasks} spanning single-arm, bimanual, and humanoid embodiments. Website: ~\href{https://paint-action-chunking.github.io}{\texttt{https://paint-action-chunking.github.io}}.

Visuomotor policies for manipulation have demonstrated remarkable potential in modeling complex robotic behaviors, yet minor alterations in the robot's initial configuration and unseen obstacles easily lead to out-of-distribution observations. Without extensive data collection effort, these result in catastrophic execution failures. In this work, we introduce an effective data augmentation framework that generates visually realistic fisheye image sequences and corresponding physically feasible action trajectories from real-world eye-in-hand demonstrations, captured with a portable parallel gripper with a single fisheye camera. We introduce a novel Gaussian Splatting formulation, adapted to wide FoV fisheye cameras, to reconstruct and edit the 3D scene with unseen objects. We utilize trajectory optimization to generate smooth, collision-free, view-rendering-friendly action trajectories and render visual observations from corresponding novel views. Comprehensive experiments in simulation and the real world show that our augmentation framework improves the success rate for various manipulation tasks in both the same scene and the augmented scene with obstacles requiring collision avoidance.

This paper proposes a constant time-delay trajectory tracking method for vehicle convoys operating without inter-vehicle communication, a common coordinate system, or global positioning. The method integrates a probabilistic sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) neural network with an invariant extended Kalman filter (IEKF) to warm-start the prediction process, allowing accurate estimation of a leader vehicle's relative trajectory on the SE(2) manifold. A geometric model predictive controller is further incorporated to fully exploit the manifold-based trajectory predictions for improved control performance. The system can handle arbitrary nonlinear trajectories with varying speeds and motion profiles while reducing the need for expert-based domain knowledge for the design of trajectory following systems, even under long trajectory delays. The effectiveness of the method is validated through comparisons with a pure IEKF baseline, learning-based methods, and the ground-truth trajectory in kinematic simulations, as well as in experiments using real robotic vehicles.

Self-distillation improves reasoning in large language models by using the model's own rollouts as training signal, typically through implicit logit-level alignment that minimizes KL divergence toward a privileged target distribution. However, because this supervision is generated via uncontrolled sampling, it provides no diagnostic insight into the model's specific errors or corrective guidance for its individual failure patterns. Consequently, the model learns to imitate a privileged distribution rather than receiving fine-grained corrections that pinpoint where and why its reasoning fails. In this paper, we propose Trajectory-Augmented Policy Optimization (TAPO), which advances self-distillation from implicit distributional alignment to explicit trajectory construction. During RL training, the model produces both correct and incorrect rollouts to the same query, and TAPO leverages this contrastive structure to construct micro-reflective corrections, new training trajectories that retain the model's erroneous reasoning up to the point of failure, then insert a natural-language diagnosis and corrected reasoning guided by a correct reference from the same sampling group. Since each trajectory is anchored in the learner's own prefix and solutions, the corrective signal preserves the model's on-policy distribution to a greater extent than the position-wise alignment imposed by KL-based methods. To integrate these trajectories, TAPO introduces difficulty-aware candidate selection at the model's capability boundary and decoupled advantage estimation to prevent gradient contamination. Experiments on AIME 2024, AIME 2025, and HMMT 2025 show that TAPO achieves consistent improvements over GRPO under the same number of training steps. Further analysis demonstrates that TAPO strengthens both first-pass reasoning and error-correction effectiveness.

Data mixture selection is critical for Large Language Model pretraining. Existing methods such as RegMix select a single static mixture by fitting a regression model on small-scale proxy runs. We propose RegMix-D, a simple extension of RegMix to dynamic mixing. Our key observation is that proxy runs produce not only endpoint losses, but also full loss trajectories, which can be used to further improve data mixture. By training regression model on these trajectories, we can predict optimal mixtures at multiple training stages. RegMix-D supports two deployment modes: an offline variant that generates a complete mixture schedule before target training, and an online variant that adapts the mixture during training using observed loss. Experiments on 25B tokens of the Pile dataset with a 1B parameter target model show that RegMix-D consistently improves over RegMix and DoReMi across 13 downstream tasks while remaining proxy-efficient: it surpasses RegMix even with only 128 proxy models (25% of RegMix's proxy compute budget).

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

We introduce VEGA, an approach for training navigation VisionLanguage-Action (VLA) models from unlabeled egocentric navigation videos. Internet-scale egocentric videos provide a scalable source of navigation-relevant visual observations, capturing cluttered scenes, close-range obstacles, and natural human motion through real-world spaces. However, these videos are not directly usable for policy learning because they do not provide obstacle-aware trajectories conditioned on explicit navigation goals in the robot's coordinate frame. VEGA addresses this gap by reconstructing local scene geometry from monocular video, sampling navigation goals (represented as text, image, or spatial waypoints) and generating obstacle-aware trajectories using the constructed geometry. The resulting trajectory distribution is then used to train a flow-matching VLA navigation policy. By using geometry exclusively during training, VEGA distills obstacle-aware planning directly into a vision-based policy. Furthermore, we introduce VEGA-Bench, a benchmark containing 250k scenes and approximately 5 million navigation goals paired with scene geometry, designed to evaluate goal progress, collision avoidance, and obstacle clearance of VLAs. Our evaluation shows that VEGA achieves competitive goal progress while reducing collisions by 33.0% and improving obstacle clearance by 17.9% over the strongest baseline on VEGABench, while improving success by at least 150.0%, reducing collisions by at least 66.7%, and improving obstacle clearance by at least 60.0% in real-world trials. Ultimately, we demonstrate that video-derived geometric supervision provides a scalable and effective signal for training obstacle-aware navigation VLAs. The code and benchmark will be released at the time of publication.

Trajectory similarity is a fundamental task in analyzing mobility patterns, essential for applications such as route pattern extraction, mobility prediction, and anomaly detection. Traditional distance-based measures for computing similarity incur high computational cost, driving the adoption of lightweight learning-based approaches. Supervised methods rely on extensive labels derived from traditional distance measures and often reproduce these metrics, which limits generalization. While self-supervised learning addresses this issue through contrastive learning, it lacks a unified framework, making it difficult to compare deep learning (DL) models for consistent trajectory representation. Accordingly, this paper presents MoCo-AIS, a unified framework for learning vessel trajectory embeddings based on the Momentum Contrast (MoCo) paradigm, which formulates similarity learning through positive and negative trajectory pairs. Within this framework, we evaluate a diverse set of leading DL models on large-scale, real-world vessel-tracking AIS datasets that capture diverse navigation behaviors and operating conditions. Results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves similarity learning over existing baselines, while providing a benchmarking platform for evaluating trajectory representation models.

Finding the initial noise that generates a given data sample, known as inversion, is a key component for downstream applications such as training-free image editing. Existing fixed-point inversion methods improve inversion accuracy by formulating each inversion step as a fixed-point problem, but they lack a principled mechanism for selecting among multiple fixed-point solutions that can arise in practice. We observe that different selections induce different inversion trajectories, leading to substantial variation in reconstruction and editing quality. For rectified flows, we further find that this variation is closely associated with trajectory straightness, motivating straightness as a principled selection criterion. We propose SelFix, a fixed-point inversion method that selects fixed-point solutions inducing straighter inverse trajectories while retaining convergence to an exact inverse root under standard local assumptions. Experiments on FLUX.1-dev and PIE-Bench show that SelFix improves fixed-point inversion, achieving stronger real-image reconstruction and better source-preserving prompt-based editing than prior inversion baselines. The code is available at https://github.com/seminkim/selfix.

Vision Navigation Foundation Models (VNMs) promise end-to-end learned navigation policies capable of zero-shot deployment across diverse embodiments and environments. To maintain generality, many vision-based navigation models predict normalized actions. However, this normalization introduces a critical deployment vulnerability: applying different scaling factors to the same normalized trajectory alters its physical geometry, which degrades navigation performance and increases collision risks. We address this vulnerability by conditioning the model on normalized action histories alongside image observations, providing explicit context on the relationship between the model's predictions and the robot's actual physical displacement. Furthermore, current VNMs often struggle in visually repetitive environments that lack distinct features. To resolve this issue, we integrate a DINOv3 encoder, whose richer representations enable our model to capture both spatial and geometric dimensions between observations. VISTA generalizes robustly to out-of-distribution environments, achieving 100% goal prediction accuracy in zero-shot, real-world deployment in Outdoor, Forest and Office settings, and an average of 95% checkpoints crossed, demonstrating consistent path following in unseen environments.

Answering navigation-relevant questions over long egocentric videos requires retrieving and organizing evidence distributed across distant temporal moments while maintaining spatial and contextual consistency. Although long-context vision--language models can achieve strong answer quality, they are computationally expensive for long trajectories and inefficient for repeated querying. Recent graph-based approaches such as VL-KnG address this challenge through persistent spatio-temporal knowledge graphs, but graph-centric retrieval alone may underrepresent broader temporal continuity and contextual cues. We present VL-MemKnG, a hybrid memory framework that extends VL-KnG by combining a spatio-temporal knowledge graph with persistent segment-level contextual memory. The knowledge graph captures structured relational information and long-range object associations, while segment-level memory preserves broader temporal context for long-horizon evidence retrieval. A hybrid retrieval-and-reasoning module jointly operates over both memory representations to produce evidence-grounded answers and temporally organized supporting evidence. We also introduce WalkieKnowledgeT+, an extension of WalkieKnowledge for long-horizon navigation-oriented video question answering. The benchmark includes temporally distributed reasoning tasks requiring evidence aggregation across multiple non-cooccurring moments. On WalkieKnowledgeT+, VL-MemKnG improves Top-1 retrieval accuracy from 58% to 67% and Recall@1 from 34.50% to 40.55%, outperforming all compared methods, including Gemini 2.5 Pro and Qwen 3.5+. The gains are particularly pronounced on temporal-global and temporally scattered aggregation questions, demonstrating the benefits of combining structured relational memory with segment-level contextual memory while maintaining efficient query-time inference.

Benchmark scores tell you what an agent got right; they do not tell you how it got there. In this work, we introduce methods for comparing agents procedurally in different contexts, where the model, tasks, and approaches vary. We compare ten agents and find that they are identifiable by their behavioral habits, which we define as fingerprints: a probe over these procedural signatures attributes an unseen trajectory to the correct agent at 85.7% accuracy, controlling for leakage across tasks. We develop procedural representations for agent problem-solving procedures with an emergent vocabulary induction technique that is meant to be maximally compressive to avoid surface-level variation while being expressive enough to unveil the quirks of the models' patterns. We apply our framework to the software engineering evaluation dataset SWE-Bench to study the structural distinctness of agent trajectories and find that behavior is most similar between models from similar release periods and those that are distilled from one another (e.g., a distilled student model and its teacher have a Jensen-Shannon divergence of 0.25, about half the distance between other model pairs). As more models saturate evaluations, we believe that it will be important to probe model behavior along more holistic dimensions than success rates alone. We introduce ProcGrep, a library for auditing and evaluating agents for how they approach tasks at a procedural level given their traces in a top-down fashion. We believe this work has a range of applications to help developers work with and program coding agents, such as task-aware model routing, agent monitoring, and finer-grained cost analysis.

Long-tail scenarios remain a major bottleneck for autonomous driving evaluation, even as datasets grow by orders of magnitude. Existing evaluation pipelines are rarely human-aligned, safety-aware, verifiable, and explainable at the same time: closed-loop metrics often saturate among strong planners, while unstructured human ratings can be noisy without a carefully designed protocol. We formulate planning evaluation as additional-threat detection: given a planner trajectory and an expert reference, does the planner's displacement introduce new unsafe driving behavior? We propose FluidTest, an evaluation pipeline with three components: a pairwise WebUI protocol for reliable human annotation; a taxonomy of 32 semantic threats with evidence-grounded decision graphs; and a three-agent verification system with reflection for precision and auditability. Experiments on the WOD-E2E dataset show that FluidTest produces consistent labels among trained annotators and identifies additional threats in 65% of Poutine trajectories and 51% of RAP trajectories. These results show that state-of-the-art planners can still exhibit substantial safety-relevant failures despite high Rater Feedback Scores (RFS) and low Average Displacement Error (ADE). Additional details, guidance, and code are available at https://fluidtest.web.app.

Masked Diffusion Language Models (MDLMs) have emerged as a distinct paradigm for sequence generation. As MDLMs become diverse in capabilities and knowledge coverage, an important question is how to combine their knowledge. Toward this, we first investigate the unique decoding dynamics of MDLMs. We find that successful generations exhibit stable confidence dynamics over answer-relevant positions, while unreliable trajectories can often be corrected by injecting promising intermediate states from other models. Guided by this observation, we propose $\textbf{TIE}$ ($\textbf{T}$rajectory-based $\textbf{I}$terative $\textbf{E}$nsembling), a knowledge fusion framework in which MDLMs iteratively identify reliable decoding trajectories and relay them across models. TIE tracks confidence dynamics over answer-relevant positions to determine which model currently follows a more reliable trajectory and selectively transfers partially denoised sequences across models. As the model on the more promising trajectory often changes across denoising steps, TIE allows different models to contribute complementary strengths at different stages of generation. Strong performance across diverse reasoning tasks, along with our analyses, suggests that TIE offers a practical approach to the underexplored problem of MDLM ensembling.

Reinforcement learning (RL) often suffers from performance degradation when deployed in environments that differ from those encountered during training. Existing techniques such as domain randomization (DR) mitigate this, but require access to diverse training environments and full trajectory observability, assumptions that fail in privacy-preserving or restricted scenarios where only scalar performance metrics are available. We propose Generalization via Evolutionary Reward Shaping (GERS), a bilevel optimization approach to improve generalization on unseen test environments using only scalar feedback from validation environments. At the lower level, an RL agent guided via a reward function shaped by the upper level learns a policy on a limited set of training environments with accessible trajectory data; at the upper level, CMA-ES optimizes the reward shaping parameters to maximize the cumulative unshaped reward on separate validation environments for which trajectory access is unavailable. Results on continuous control tasks indicate that GERS outperforms the standard RL baseline on unseen test environments. GERS performance is comparable to DR, despite DR treating the combined set of training and validation environments of GERS as a single training set that requires trajectory access, whereas GERS cannot access validation trajectories. These results confirm that GERS effectively enhances generalization under restricted data access constraints.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has become an effective post-training paradigm for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models. However, existing RLVR methods typically rely on final-answer correctness to assign trajectory-level rewards, providing sparse supervision and treating all tokens uniformly regardless of their actual contribution to reasoning. Although recent studies introduce intermediate signals such as process rewards, high-entropy tokens, and semantic uncertainty, these signals are often not inherently verifiable and may fail to distinguish beneficial strategic patterns from harmful ones. To address this limitation, we propose STRIDE (Strategic Trajectory Reasoning with Discriminative Estimation), a fine-grained RLVR framework that derives strategic reasoning supervision from verifiable outcomes. STRIDE contrasts successful and failed trajectories within each response group to estimate the outcome-discriminative preference of each $n$-gram strategic pattern, and further combines this signal with reasoning saliency entropy to identify decision-relevant strategic patterns. These patterns are assigned differentiated advantage values during RL optimization, enabling more precise credit assignment while preserving the verifiability of RLVR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STRIDE consistently improves reasoning performance across diverse models, tasks, and extended settings, including VLMs and agent-based systems.

The success of generative models in language and visual generation has inspired extensive applications to generative robot planning. However, most existing works either focus on single-robot planning, or generate multi-robot trajectories in a sequential manner with iterative post-processing to resolve inter-robot conflicts. In this work, we investigate whether coordinated multi-robot trajectories, as a special spatiotemporal distribution, can be learned and generated with a generative model in a feed-forward manner. We propose Robots as Tokens (Roken), a unified diffusion transformer that directly generates multi-robot trajectories that satisfy both (individual) safety and (global) connectivity constraints. The core design of Roken is to represent each robot as a discrete token, allowing them to naturally interact with each other through self-attention, and cross-attend to map tokens for environment layouts. We further introduce several auxiliary tasks based on Bayes' theorem to provide multi-scale spatial-temporal supervision for efficient learning of the conditional distribution. In training, Roken absorbs diverse expert trajectories from different team sizes. During inference, Roken behaves as a versatile multi-robot planner that can handle single-robot planning, coordinated multi-robot trajectory generation, and conditional trajectory generation by fixing some robot tokens as conditions. Experiments in diverse cluttered environments show that Roken can generate coordinated multi-robot trajectories to perform connectivity-constrained goal navigation tasks with high success rates, outperforming the baseline method used to generate the training dataset. Roken also demonstrates good scalability after training with mixed team sizes, and shows generalization to unseen or partially observed environments, verifying its potential to learn from diverse data and perform versatile tasks.

Co-creative AI research increasingly seeks methods capable of representing how interaction dynamics evolve through time. While many existing approaches focus on observable interaction characteristics, interaction metrics, behavioral coding schemes, or activity traces, these methods often struggle to capture higher-order interaction dynamics, including how collaborative processes reorganize, stabilize, regulate, and evolve through time. This paper introduces Cognitive Trajectory Modeling (CTM) as a cognitive theory of interaction dynamics that conceptualizes cognition, interaction, and creative processes as temporally organized trajectories unfolding across cognitively meaningful attractor landscapes. CTM builds upon the theoretical foundations of the Enactive Model of Creativity and Creative Sense-Making (CSM), revisiting the role of sense-making curves and cognitive trajectories in representing co-creative interaction dynamics. We formalize this perspective through the Cognitive Trajectory Principle, which states that temporal representations are only theoretically interpretable as cognitive trajectories when their underlying states possess directional cognitive meaning. Building on this principle, CTM generalizes the notion of cognitive trajectories beyond any particular coding scheme and provides a broader framework for modeling interaction dynamics through trajectories unfolding across meaningful attractor landscapes. We further distinguish cognitive trajectories from interaction traces and situate CTM within a broader hierarchy of cognitive, interaction, and domain dynamics. More broadly, we argue that understanding co-creative systems requires methods capable of modeling how cognition and interaction dynamics unfold through time. CTM provides a foundation for studying interaction dynamics across co-creative AI and human-AI interaction.

Accurate and interpretable motion prediction for heterogeneous traffic spaces, including pedestrians, bicycles, cars, and trucks, is essential for safe autonomous navigation. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art approaches remain predominantly black-box, lacking explicit encoding of the regulatory and behavioral constraints of real-world mobility. We propose Trajectory Compliance-Shaping (TraCS), a neuro-symbolic framework that augments existing black-box motion prediction backbones with interpretable and probabilistic first-order logic. To do so, TraCS employs an agentic code-generation pipeline to bridge the gap between natural-language descriptions of traffic regulations and probabilistic motion prediction. Furthermore, TraCS employs a reactive data-streaming inference engine that maintains and efficiently updates compliance landscapes as scenes evolve. To prevent TraCS from overconfidently steering the backbone's predictions in the wrong direction, we propose a neural confidence rating learned as a context-aware attenuation of the compliance signal. We demonstrate on the Argoverse 2 benchmark how TraCS consistently improves state-of-the-art prediction backbones, showing that probabilistic and symbolic compliance reasoning is a broadly applicable and computationally efficient complement to purely neural motion predictors.

Modern trajectory predictors increasingly condition on external spatial context, such as map geometry, signed distance fields (SDFs), and nearby moving agents. While this context improves prediction quality, constructing it for every training anchor has become a hidden systems bottleneck. In a representative maritime AIS pipeline, spatial context construction requires roughly 17 CPU-days for a 5.48M-anchor corpus, dominating the cost of the downstream predictor. We present M-CTX, an exact and scalable spatial context-retrieval framework for trajectory analytics. M-CTX recasts context construction as an ingest-once, query-many spatial database workload and replaces three brute-force stages -- OSM range retrieval, SDF computation, and moving-vessel neighbour lookup -- with composable, index-backed operators. Its learned range-index backend, BR-LZ, provides recall-complete MBR-overlap range retrieval and reduces candidate amplification by 1.1x--2.7x relative to global-expansion one-curve baselines. Across four maritime regions, eight baseline systems, synthetic workloads with up to 40M spatial features, and 10^7-record AIS streams, M-CTX reproduces the reference context exactly. On the 5.48M-anchor corpus, it reduces context construction from about 17 CPU-days to 1.8 hours, a measured 226x end-to-end speed-up. An optional storage mode further compresses SDF context by 64x with only a 0.04 m ADE change. These results establish exact spatial context retrieval as a first-class database problem in modern trajectory analytics. Code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/mark000071/M-CTX-Traj.

Reliable trajectory planning under partial observability depends not only on computing a feasible geometric path, but also on whether the robot receives informative observations while executing that trajectory. Existing approaches usually keep the environment fixed and adapt the robot through belief-space planning, active localization, or added sensing, often incurring costly uncertainty propagation and brittle behavior in observation-poor regions. We flip this perspective and address the largely open problem of \emph{task-aware environment augmentation}: given a mapped environment, a planned task trajectory, and a small budget of visual fiducial markers, where should the environment be augmented so that the planned trajectory can be executed reliably under uncertainty? Our key observation is that useful marker layouts are defined by the localization support they provide along the task trajectory: a small number of well-timed observations can be sufficient to prevent uncertainty from accumulating in regions where state-estimation error would otherwise compromise control. Building on this observation, we present \tbp{SCoDA}, $\textbf{S}$hielded $\textbf{Co}$nditional $\textbf{D}$iffusion for Environment $\textbf{A}$ugmentation. \tbp{SCoDA} learns a conditional distribution over high-performing fiducial layouts from data, using the environment, planned trajectory, disturbance context, and desired execution profile as conditioning. Its shielded sampler reasons over where along the planned execution pose corrections should occur, and steers this distribution toward task-relevant, finite-budget augmentations. Across simulated benchmarks and hardware deployments, we show that \tbp{SCoDA} improves trajectory execution reliability and completion time over strong baselines. Code, models and dataset available at: \hyperlink{scoda-diffusion.github.io}{https://scoda-diffusion.github.io/}

Robots under autonomous operation may require decisions based on evidence that is no longer visible. We study delayed-evidence tasks, where an early cue disappears before a later decision point, so visually similar observations can require different actions. In these settings, the current observation is not a sufficient state for control. We introduce TRAjectory-routed Causal Evidence (TRACE), a memory framework for visuomotor imitation policies. TRACE stores task-relevant visual and robot-state evidence, such as object identity, target choice, or route-dependent state, in a fixed-size latent memory that remains bounded over long episodes. Instead of indexing memory by raw time or manually provided task labels, TRACE uses path signatures: compact, order-sensitive features of the executed robot-state trajectory. These signatures do not store the visual cue itself; rather, they provide trajectory-conditioned keys for writing and retrieving the evidence stored when the cue was visible. When the robot later reaches an ambiguous observation, the policy conditions on TRACE memory to recover the missing context and choose the correct branch. TRACE attaches through lightweight adapters to policies, without changing the policy backbone, action head, or imitation objective. Across real-world long-horizon manipulation tasks with visually ambiguous branch points, TRACE improves branch selection and task success over alternative baselines, including short-history and recurrent memory. Project page: https://jeong-zju.github.io/trace

Recent advances in diffusion-based video generation have significantly improved visual quality and short-term temporal coherence. However, existing methods still struggle to produce videos with physically consistent and causally plausible dynamics, especially in scenarios involving long-horizon interactions. This limitation arises from the fact that video diffusion models primarily learn physical consistency implicitly, while vision-language models can directly model physical laws. Based on this idea, in this work, we propose \textbf{CausalMotion}, a training-free framework that injects explicit physical reasoning into video generation through structured intermediate representations. Our key idea is to decouple reasoning from generation by leveraging a vision-language model to decompose a text prompt into a sequence of causally consistent keyframes and object-centric motion trajectories. These representations are then aligned and integrated as soft constraints to guide a pretrained video diffusion model during inference. This design enables explicit modeling of object dynamics and causal transitions without requiring additional training or supervision. Extensive experiments show that our method consistently improves physical plausibility and temporal coherence, particularly in dynamics-intensive scenarios, while maintaining high perceptual video quality.

Agent skills are structured procedural packages that guide frozen LLM agents in specialized workflows. Skills rarely remain sufficient after deployment: edge cases, API changes, and deployment constraints become visible only through use, making skill evolution a practical necessity. Existing methods depend on privileged feedback such as held-out validation scores, hidden test outcomes, or environment rewards -- signals often unavailable when a practitioner has only a task description and workspace data. We introduce SkillAudit, a framework for evolving agent skills without ground-truth feedback. The key idea is paired trajectory auditing: at each iteration, the same task is executed with and without the candidate skill, isolating how the skill changes agent behavior without external labels. To turn behavioral differences into edit guidance, SkillAudit uses Process-Aligned Contrastive Evaluation (PACE), a cluster of evaluators that maps trajectory divergences to diagnostic signals linked to specific passages in the skill document. A structural verifier, compiled once from the task specification and then fixed, checks task constraints and rolls back harmful updates. SkillAudit routes edits through two pipelines: Refine removes noisy or irrelevant guidance from broadly useful skills, while Repair replaces passages that conflict with the task. Across 89 containerized tasks spanning 8 professional domains, SkillAudit achieves 73.9% average task reward, outperforming an agent without skills (40.9%) and the static expert skill (56.7%). These gains are obtained without accessing hidden tests, reference solutions, or external scoring functions during evolution.

End-to-end autonomous parking has emerged as a critical task within the realm of autonomous driving. However, existing methods suffer from black-box characteristics, lacking high-level semantic understanding and interpretability, which impedes the realization of seamless long-distance autonomous parking from the road to the target spot. To address these limitations, we propose ParkingTransformer, a novel framework that leverages multi-view perception and the scene understanding capability of Large Language Models (LLMs). By combining trajectory queries with LLMs implicit state features, our method interacts directly with historical information and raw sensor data to output planning trajectories, eliminating the need for dense Bird's-View (BEV) representations. To compensate for the inadequate spatial reasoning ability of LLMs, we introduce 3D positional encoding to explicitly inject spatial geometric awareness. Furthermore, a fixed-window streaming mechanism is designed for historical information processing, significantly improving long-term temporal processing efficiency and inference speed. Additionally, a coarse-to-fine decoding strategy is employed to progressively enhance trajectory precision. Extensive closed-loop experiments are conducted on the CARLA simulator and real-world vehicle platforms. The results demonstrate that our method achieves a driving score of 61.32 in CARLA simulator and an average success rate of 88.70% in real-world experiments, validating the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms.

Autonomous surface vehicles offer an efficient solution for environmental cleanup as well as search and rescue operations in open waters. Targets in these settings drift continuously, so efficient search must balance exploration of unobserved regions with tracking of known targets. However, most target tracking and pursuit scenarios consider simple guidance behaviours and short-term predictions for decision-making. In this letter, we address the problem of search and capture of multiple drifting targets, such as litter, in dynamic environments, using a hybrid planning framework. A key aspect of our strategy is a spatiotemporal informative planning method based on model predictive path integral (MPPI) control, a sampling-based model predictive control approach. The planner directly generates kinematic-level commands by optimising continuous trajectories over long horizons. A multi-objective cost balances search and tracking objectives while ensuring safe, feasible trajectories. In the interception stage, we switch to a pure pursuit guidance controller for the physical capture of moving targets. Experiments show that our planner outperforms the chosen planning baselines. Finally, we validate our approach in field trials with an ASV.

This manuscript proposes an integral formulation of the newly defined quadratic embedding method for identifying nonlinear systems (QENDy). In the original algorithm, trajectory data points along with their time derivatives are used. Methods for calculating time derivatives make the algorithm sensitive to noise. Our integral formulation does not use the time derivatives. This results in a more robust method to learn the dynamics.

Most existing drone-based inspection systems require the drone to fly dangerously close to the target or follow complex flight paths to capture small details. In addition, drone flight is affected by disturbances and localization inaccuracies, which can cause the drone to lose sight of its supposed target when it has a narrow view. Furthermore, trajectory planning often requires prior information about the target's geometry, position, and orientation, which is not always available for non-structural targets such as trees, vehicles, or people. To address these challenges, this paper presents aerial_micro_inspection, a generic pipeline for aerial micro-inspection across different use cases. The pipeline assumes a PX4-powered drone equipped with two cameras: (i) a zoomed, gimbal-mounted inspection camera that captures fine details without requiring the drone to fly very close to the target, and (ii) a wide-field-of-view stereo navigation camera that acquires the target surface on site, estimates its range, and partitions it into smaller inspection regions. In addition, a vision-based feedback loop compensates for drone motion while the inspection camera visits small partitions of a larger surface. We evaluate the pipeline in simulation and real-world experiments, mainly in two use-case scenarios: tree inspection for detecting oak processionary caterpillars and their eggs, and greenhouse inspection of sticky traps for detecting whiteflies. The results show improved coverage robustness under drone disturbances in simulation, as well as effective detection of caterpillars and eggs and high-detail imaging of insects in real-world experiments. The pipeline is open-source, developed in ROS 2, and can be adapted to new applications by replacing the surface-segmentation and micro-target detection checkpoints. The code is available at: https://github.com/SaxionMechatronics/aerial_micro_inspection

We introduce First-Order Trajectory Matching (FTM), a surrogate-modeling method that learns the first-order local transport of probability mass from trajectories of stochastic systems. By matching the symmetric first-order motion of trajectories, FTM learns the probability current velocity, whose flow preserves time marginals to match ensemble averages, while also capturing current-like trajectory quantities such as fluxes, circulations, and barrier-crossing currents. FTM learns the current velocity directly from trajectories, avoiding drift, diffusion, and score estimation. Our stability analysis separates discretization error from sampling variance and shows that the one-step simulation-free FTM loss is stable when temporal resolution and sample size are properly balanced. Across stochastic dynamical systems and PDE examples, we empirically demonstrate that FTM provides trajectory-aware ensemble predictions at low, deterministic-rollout cost.

Trajectory data augmentation is a promising approach to mitigate data scarcity in machine learning applications, but its utility has been limited by the complexity of preserving spatio-temporal coherence. Although prior work demonstrated the viability of geometric perturbation, it relied on naive random selection, leaving a critical gap in understanding which trajectories should be augmented for maximal benefit. This thesis addresses this gap by developing a systematic and scalable framework to evaluate five systematic selection strategies: Outlierness, Diversity, Representativeness, Uncertainty, and Random selection. These strategies were rigorously tested across four datasets covering animal behavior (Foxes and Starkey), maritime traffic (AIS), and urban traffic (Car) using a suite of linear and non-linear machine learning models. As part of this evaluation, an Optuna-based hyperparameter optimization loop was integrated to empirically identify the best-performing augmentation parameters for each dataset within the explored search space. The results indicate that, while systematic selection is not a universal solution, it offers distinct advantages over the random baseline. Systematic strategies, particularly Outlierness and Uncertainty, demonstrated higher stability and were less prone to performance degradation observed with random sampling in dense datasets. However, the findings also reveal that the value of augmentation is strictly conditional. Visual analysis via UMAP demonstrates that while systematic augmentation successfully repairs topological fragmentation in sparse datasets, it can act as a corrupting noise signal in high-quality, dense datasets. Furthermore, the study identified physical limitations in high-velocity domains, where standard perturbation techniques lead to divergence in feature space...

Although the study of human trajectory anomalies is critical for advancing spatial data mining, empirical research remains severely hindered by a pervasive lack of ground-truth datasets. Despite the availability of several real-world and simulated human trajectory collections, these datasets exclusively capture normal mobility patterns and lack annotated anomalies. This specific scarcity is fundamentally driven by the inherent statistical rarity of anomalous events, precluding the feasibility of conventional observational methods. Compounding this challenge, the systematic acquisition of large-scale mobility data is strictly bottlenecked by prohibitive costs and stringent privacy regulations. To overcome these fundamental limitations and establish a reliable human trajectory anomalies dataset with annotated ground truth, we introduce a novel, end-to-end generative framework designed to synthesize realistic trajectory anomalies at scale. Our architecture bridges the gap between purely synthetic mobility data and complex real-world physical constraints by operating directly on baseline simulated trajectories. We employ Large Language Model (LLM) agents to systematically inject semantically meaningful behavioral anomalies such as irregular out-of-distribution check-ins and skipped routine visits. To ensure rigorous spatial validity, the system leverages map-constrained routing reconstruction to recalculate the physical transitions between these LLM agent-modified staypoints. Moreover, to narrow the simulation-to-reality gap, we augment the resulting trajectories with a context-aware spatial noise model, parameterized by environmental and location-specific variables, to accurately emulate heterogeneous GPS sensor degradation.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) offers a path to policy improvement from logged data alone, using historical returns or other measurable outcomes as world feedback. A key difficulty is improving observed behavior without extrapolating beyond what the offline data supports. We propose \emph{counterfactual transport flows}, a source-conditioned trajectory refinement framework for offline decision-making guided by world feedback. Given a low-feedback candidate trajectory, we construct local preference pairs from offline data by retrieving nearby trajectories in latent trajectory space with higher task-specific feedback, and use them as weak supervision for conservative refinement. The framework learns instance-specific refinement directions: at inference time, a refinement strength parameter controls how far the candidate trajectory is transported, enabling a trade-off between preserving the original behavior and applying stronger improvement. Experiments on D4RL benchmarks, including AntMaze and MuJoCo tasks, show that our method improves behavior from historical returns as world feedback, while providing interpretable trajectory-level refinement paths.

Routine laboratory panels drawn during cancer treatment constitute longitudinal physiological recordings of organ function, yet their temporal structure is discarded by single-timepoint prognostic tools. A transformer trained on 2,777,595 laboratory measurements from 3,905 patients with multiple myeloma or ovarian cancer predicted the two-year onset of 162 treatment-associated complications, including therapy-related myelodysplastic syndromes, spanning eight clinical categories, achieving 1.5- to 6.1-fold enrichment above prevalence at the group level. It matched or outperformed non-sequential baselines across grouped endpoints (AUROC gains up to +0.11), demonstrating that longitudinal laboratory trajectories capture evolving complication-specific physiology inaccessible from isolated measurements. Predictions generalised across both cancers, divergence concentrating in disease-specific complications, and biomarker masking recovered signatures consistent with established pathophysiology. External validation on MIMIC-IV and MMRF CoMMpass confirmed transferability across independent healthcare systems (AUROC up to 0.85). Routine oncological laboratory data encode organ deterioration weeks to months before clinical onset, enabling complication-specific surveillance without additional testing infrastructure.

LLM-based coding agents sometimes acknowledge a problem in their own reasoning and then proceed anyway. We call this pattern strained coherence: a safety-relevant failure mode in which an agent has information that should change its behavior, states that information, and still acts against it. The pattern overlaps with verbalized reward hacking, where an agent names a tension between a task proxy and the underlying goal yet optimizes the proxy anyway. We give an operational definition, build a Claude Sonnet 4.6 judge that reads full trajectories and flags spans where the pattern occurs, and evaluate it on 44 Terminal-bench-2 trajectories using a Qwen3.5-35B-A3B backbone. Flagged trajectories fail 94% of the time versus 46% for unflagged trajectories (47-point gap, Fisher's exact p = 0.003; 46 points after excluding three prompt-embedded examples, p = 0.006). At matched selectivity, the detector reaches 94% precision versus 88% for a lexical discourse-marker baseline; the 10-trajectory intersection of the two methods has a 100% failure rate (Clopper-Pearson 95% CI [69%, 100%]). We replicate on Gemma4-31B with 43 trajectories: the overall signal is directionally consistent but not significant (20-point gap, p = 0.31), with attenuation driven largely by 13 trajectories with zero think content, where the detector has no substrate to analyze. In the high-verbosity Gemma tertile, the gap is +30 points; in the mid- and high-verbosity Qwen tertiles, it is +40 points each. The first flag appears at a median of 83-84% of elapsed trajectory time across both models, and the binary flag survives paraphrases that soften explicit conflict markers (8/8 trajectories). Unlike univariate predictors, the detector emits interpretable span-level output -- quoted acknowledgment, quoted action, and typed conflict -- showing what the agent saw and ignored.

Alzheimer's disease is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder, and its progression varies substantially across patients. Existing work aims to forecast patients' future cognitive state, with minimal focus on reconstructing the state from past visits. Furthermore, in current research, quantifying predictive uncertainty remains underexplored and relies on costly modalities such as MRI, PET, and CSF, limiting their deployment in resource-limited settings. In this research, our primary objectives are: First, bidirectional prediction of cognitive scores from irregular visits to present the complete disease trajectory. Second, to enable interpolation and extrapolation capabilities to assist clinicians in informed prognostic decision making, and third, to provide a well-calibrated uncertainty estimate for all predictions, and finally, to achieve the objectives using the modalities available during routine visits. We propose a unified framework, GNOVA: A GRU-Neural ODE Variational Autoencoder. The architecture combines a Gated Recurrent Unit encoder and a Neural ODE decoder within a variational autoencoder framework. In our work, we forecast the CDR-SB and MMSE Scores. The GRU encoder allows for any number of inputs at any time point. The Neural-ODE decoder performs continuous estimation, allowing interpolation and extrapolation at any desired time point. The Variational autoencoder allows for uncertainty estimation in predictions. We worked with 1,727 patients from the ADNI dataset over 10 years; the model achieved mean absolute errors of 1.35 and 2.28 for CDR-SB and MMSE scores, respectively, without requiring any neuroimaging or biomarker data. Feature-ablation studies revealed that age, BMI, and APOE4 status were strong predictors. The proposed framework enables the reconstruction of incomplete patient histories and the anticipation of future cognitive states.

End-to-end planners for autonomous driving typically generate a set of candidate trajectories, score each one, and return the highest-scoring candidate. However, the scorer is applied only after the proposals are generated and cannot influence the set of trajectories: a weak set of candidates limits planning performance regardless of the scorer's quality. We instead treat the scorer as a learned trajectory-level reward function and search for trajectories that maximize it. Our method, TOAD, runs the Cross-Entropy Method at test time, warm-started from the planner's proposals. It requires no retraining and is plug-and-play for existing planners. Across six base planners, TOAD improves results on NAVSIM-v1 (94.7 PDMS), NAVSIM-v2 (56.3 EPDMS), and the closed-loop HUGSIM benchmark. The code will be made publicly available via the project page: https://valeoai.github.io/TOAD/.

Real-time autonomous driving commonly relies on sampling-based trajectory planners that link candidate trajectories to target waypoints along the road centerline. The placement of these waypoints directly impacts both the existence and quality of feasible trajectories. Yet, its effect on planner performance remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we treat waypoint placement as a first-class design variable. We hold the trajectory primitive and candidate budget fixed, and systematically sweep three placement strategies (uniform spacing, an augmented Ramer-Douglas-Peucker variant (RDP*), and a novel curvature-conditioned allocation) across 449 configurations and five CommonRoad maps of increasing geometric complexity. Our results show that the nominal inter-waypoint spacing $d_s$ is the primary performance driver, with large differences in planner reliability attributed to placement alone. Uniform sampling at a well-tuned spacing matches or surpasses both RDP* and the centered curvature variant. The curvature variant offers a small but consistent advantage on geometrically complex roads under reliability-first and balanced weightings, while RDP* never outperforms uniform sampling. These findings suggest that $d_s$ should be treated as the dominant tuning parameter, with geometry-aware strategies reserved for curvature-rich corridors where feasibility is the limiting factor.

LLM agents increasingly rely on agent harness: the runtime infrastructure around the base model that defines execution environments, tool interfaces, context, lifecycle orchestration, observability, verification, and governance. Existing self-improving agents and automatic harness evolution methods mainly improve agents through runtime supervision, prompt optimization, workflow search, or harness modification based on final outcomes. However, they often fail to diagnose where the responsible evidence lies in failed trajectories and which harness implementation mechanism causes the unreliable behavior, resulting in broad, indirect, or poorly scoped changes. This paper proposes HarnessFix, a trace-grounded and diagnosis-driven framework for repairing agent harnesses. HarnessFix compiles raw execution traces and harness artifacts into a Harness-aware Trace Intermediate Representation (HTIR), which normalizes fragmented trajectory evidence, captures step-level data-flow and control-flow relations, and aligns runtime steps with the harness artifacts that shape their behavior. It then attributes failures to responsible steps and harness artifacts, and consolidates recurring diagnoses into repair-oriented flaw records. Finally, HarnessFix maps these records to scoped repair operators, generates patches under flaw-specific repair specifications, and accepts them through regression-aware validation. We evaluate HarnessFix on four popular benchmarks, and results show that it improves the performance over the initial harnesses by 6.3% to 18.4%, significantly outperforming human-designed and self-evolution baselines. HarnessFix highlights the value of treating failed trajectories not only as feedback signals, but also as structured evidence for diagnosing and repairing the harness mechanisms behind agent failures.

Humans often take longer to demonstrate a task than a robot would need to execute it. Rather than learning to replicate the demonstration at the same pace, many industrial and practical applications require robots to perform tasks as quickly as possible. In this paper, we investigate several hypotheses for learning policies that operate faster-than-demonstrations. Our experiments show that the most effective strategy is to downsample recorded demonstrations and train the robot's policy on this accelerated data. However, uniformly downsampling an entire trajectory can be problematic. Some parts of a task can be safely sped up (e.g., unconstrained motion), while others demand slower, more precise motion (e.g., object interactions or fine manipulation). To address this challenge, we introduce VOLT, a vision-and-language trajectory segmentation method that reasons over video demonstrations, and leverages contextual cues to determine when acceleration is appropriate and when careful precision is required. VOLT identifies segments where slow, deliberate motion is necessary, then selectively downsamples the remaining segments. The resulting reformatted trajectories can be used with standard imitation learning approaches, such as diffusion policies. Our results highlight that segmentation quality is critical -- baseline methods often misidentify when acceleration is possible, leading to overly cautious or unreliable policies. Compared to state-of-the-art alternatives, VOLT allows robots to execute tasks faster while maintaining strong performance.

Accurate vessel trajectory prediction is essential for safe and efficient maritime operations, enabling collision avoidance and supporting route optimization. Although memory-augmented neural networks have recently shown strong performance in pedestrian and road-vehicle trajectory prediction by selectively retrieving relevant information from an external memory, their potential for vessel trajectory prediction remains underexplored. This paper presents an empirical investigation of memory-based trajectory prediction using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Experiments on data from the Gulf of Mexico and the New York Bight demonstrate consistent and substantial performance gains over a range of deep learning baselines that do not incorporate an external memory.

We introduce T2Mo, a feed-forward framework for controllable dynamic 3D shape generation conditioned on 3D trajectories and text. Due to the inherent ambiguity of language, generating precisely intended motions using text alone remains challenging. To address this, we adopt 3D trajectories as controllable spatial guidance, specifying the exact paths along which selected points should move. By combining both, T2Mo generates object motions that spatially adhere to the given trajectories while globally reflecting the text semantics. To robustly handle trajectory inputs with arbitrary configurations, ranging from dense to sparse and unevenly distributed, we further propose a shape-grounded trajectory embedding that maps an input trajectory set into a shape-aware token set covering the entire object. We conduct extensive comparisons against text-based baselines and cascaded video-based baselines that combine trajectory-guided video generation with video-to-dynamic mesh generation. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations, along with user studies, demonstrate that our approach produces motions that more faithfully follow the given prompts with higher expressiveness while preserving motion quality.

Equipping Large Language Models (LLMs) to execute reliable multi-step workflows has become a central challenge in artificial intelligence. Despite recent advances in LLMs' agentic capabilities, most agent systems still lack formal methods for specifying, verifying, and debugging their workflow and execution trajectories. This challenge mirrors a long-standing problem in mathematics, where the ambiguity of natural languages (NLs) motivates the development of formal languages (FLs). Inspired by this paradigm, we propose Lean4Agent, to the best of our knowledge, the first framework that uses Lean4, a dependent-type FL to model and verify agent behavior. Lean4Agent launches FormalAgentLib, an extensible Lean4 library for formally modeling and verifying agent workflows' semantic consistency under explicit assumptions, and enabling localization of execution-time failures revealed by trajectories. Building on FormalAgentLib, we further develop LeanEvolve, which applies results in FormalAgentLib to revise workflows to enhance its capability. Extensive experiments on a hard problem subset of SWE-Bench-Verified and a subset of ELAIP-Bench across 5 leading LLMs indicate that the verification-passing workflows outperform the failing ones by an average of 11.94%, and LeanEvolve further improves SWE performance by 7.47% on average. Furthermore, Lean4Agent establishes a foundation for a new field of using expressive dependent-type FL to formally model and verify agent behavior.

Flow matching models learn to transport samples from a simple prior distribution to a complex data distribution. When prior-data pairs are coupled via optimal transport (OT), the learned trajectories are straight and non-crossing, enabling fast, even single-step, generation. However, computing the OT coupling in high dimensions is intractable, and existing methods attempt to solve the OT problem, at the cost of persistent bias or significant overhead. Rather than solving for the OT coupling, we reformulate the problem. Once the prior is treated as a design choice rather than a fixed input, the OT coupling between prior and data is no longer unique. Many priors admit an OT-optimal identity coupling to the data, leaving us free to choose one that is also tractable to sample. We identify low-frequency projection of natural images as such a choice. The identity coupling between data and its low-frequency representation is empirically OT-optimal, the prior is structured enough to be sampled by a lightweight model at inference, and the remaining flow-matching task reduces to synthesizing high-frequency detail. Interpolating the prior with Gaussian noise further improves generation quality while preserving the OT coupling. The approach requires no modifications to the flow model itself, and integrates naturally with latent-space models, classifier-free guidance, and one-step generation frameworks. Across all benchmarks, our method reduces trajectory curvature by more than $2\times$ compared to existing flow matching methods, yielding better generation quality in the few-step regime.

Stronger code agents are commonly assumed to be superior teachers for post-training, yet this assumption remains poorly disentangled from task difficulty, harness design, and student capacity. We investigate this pedagogical link using Terminal-Lego, a scalable pipeline that transforms multi-domain real-world issues into environment-verified agentic tasks. Surprisingly, standalone performance does not dictate teaching efficacy: while Claude Opus 4.6 achieves higher scores on Terminal-Bench 2.0, students fine-tuned on trajectories from DeepSeek-V3.2, a lower-scoring agent, exhibit significantly stronger generalization. We attribute this "pedagogical paradox" to Environment-Grounded Supervision (EGS): trajectories that explicitly expose inspect-act-verify behaviors through harness-visible interactions allow students to internalize robust problem-solving routines rather than fragile action sequences. Scaling analysis reveals exceptional data efficiency: with only 15.3k Terminal-Lego trajectories, for example, Qwen3-32B achieves a 24.3% score on Terminal-Bench 2.0, rivaling previous SOTA performance established with over 30x the data volume. Our results suggest that the frontier of agent post-training lies beyond mere outcome-matching, shifting the focus toward "Harness Engineering", where the systematic design of environment-grounded interaction structures serves as the primary catalyst for reproducible and generalizable agentic intelligence.

Text files such as skill files, memory files, and behavioral configuration files play a central role in defining how modern agents act. Through edits by humans or the agents themselves, these files may evolve over time, directly steering the agent's behavior in future interactions. We present a methodology and framework for measuring agent $traits$ by defining traits as directions in the embedding space of a text embedding model. We train a linear model on labeled "before" versus "after" skill file diffs to learn a trait vector, then score arbitrary skill edits by projecting their embedding diffs onto this vector. Evaluated on 68 labeled skill diff pairs for the trait of propensity to seek sensitive data, our method achieves 91.2% sign classification accuracy and a Spearman rank correlation of $ρ= 0.82$ under leave-one-out cross-validation. We build this trait evaluation into a broader agent-to-agent protocol that enables one agent to evaluate another's skill file updates through a trusted intermediary.

Deep-research agents solve tasks through long trajectories of search, tool use, evidence inspection, and answer synthesis. Evaluation based on final answers shows whether an agent succeeds, but not which parts of the trajectory make the answer unreliable. We study span-level error localization for deep-research agents. We collect 2,790 real trajectories from two agent frameworks, three backbone models, and three benchmarks, convert raw logs into semantic spans, and annotate harmful error spans through LLM-assisted expert review. From these annotations, we build TELBench, a 1,000-instance benchmark for identifying error spans among normal exploration, failed searches, tentative hypotheses, and harmless noise. We further propose DRIFT, a claim-centric auditing framework that tracks agent claims, checks their support in trajectory evidence, and marks spans where unsupported or conflicting claims affect the answer path. Experiments across model families and auditing frameworks show that DRIFT improves span-level error localization and first-error accuracy by up to 30 percentage points. Our work provides a process-level view of reliability in deep-research agents.

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on reusable external skills to solve long-horizon interactive tasks. Existing training-free skill adaptation pipelines usually update skills from full trajectories or session-level feedback, which makes failure attribution coarse and often produces unstable or overly broad revisions. We propose SkillAdaptor, a training-free step-level skill adaptation framework with explicit failure attribution, and it can plug into OpenClaw-class agent harnesses. Given a failed trajectory, SkillAdaptor identifies a first actionable fault step, links responsibility to candidate skills, and applies targeted updates under explicit acceptance checks while keeping the backbone frozen. We evaluate on WebShop, PinchBench, and Claw-Eval with Kimi-K2.5, GLM-5, and GPT-5.2. SkillAdaptor improves over no-skill and skill-adaptation baselines on all three suites, with the largest single-metric improvements of +1.5 points on PinchBench Avg Score%, +1.8 on Claw-Eval Avg Score, and +1.7 on WebShop success rate. These results indicate that step-level attribution supports more stable and auditable training-free skill maintenance\footnote{The code will be released at https://github.com/zjunlp/SkillAdaptor.}.

Robotic manipulation requires the effective integration of heterogeneous inputs, including visual observations, language instructions, and trajectory representations, to generate accurate actions. Existing transformer-based policies typically process these heterogeneous modalities within a shared parameter space, which often leads to modality interference and inefficient representation learning, especially in data-scarce scenarios. While Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) offers a scalable solution through expert specialization, conventional routing mechanisms are often sensitive to such cross-modal representation discrepancies, resulting in unstable expert assignment and expert collapse. In this work, we propose MATE (Multi-ModAl TrajEctory Policies), a novel trajectory prediction framework built upon MoE. Specifically, we introduce a Multi-Modal MoE architecture to achieve fine-grained sub-token feature decoupling, and design a cross-modal cosine router for stable and scale-invariant expert assignment across heterogeneous modalities. We further employ temperature-controlled routing and stochastic noise injection to improve expert balance and prevent premature routing collapse under scarce demonstrations. Experiments on the LIBERO benchmark show that our MATE consistently outperforms prior work under data scarcity. It achieves a 4.75% improvement in average success rate over the trajectory-guided counterpart. Real-world experiments on robotic ping-pong also suggest that the predicted trajectories can provide useful guidance for downstream robotic execution, further indicating the practical feasibility of our algorithm.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction is essential for safe navigation in autonomous driving and intelligent transportation systems. Despite substantial progress made by recent methods, most existing approaches are limited in fully exploiting diverse observations and often overlook the scale dependency of future motion, treating multiscale features uniformly regardless of underlying motion dynamics. This limits their robustness across diverse pedestrian behaviors. To address these challenges, we propose a Predicted-MUltiSCale-Aware Network (MUSCLE-NET) for Pedestrian Trajectory Forecasting that integrates complementary multimodal cues with scale-adaptive prediction mechanisms. The proposed framework is built upon a Multiscale Multimodal Feature Extraction (MMFE) module, which combines multiscale representation, modality-aware recalibration, and directional cross-modal fusion to construct semantically aligned representations from bounding boxes, velocities, and pose information. Building on these features, a Multiscale Enhanced Hierarchical Prediction (MEHP) module performs prediction-aware future-motion refinement via a probabilistic coarse predictor, scale-aligned fusion, and progressive refinement, adaptively selecting scale-relevant cues to mitigate spatial drift. Extensive experiments on the JAAD and PIE benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed MUSCLE-Net achieves competitive performance and consistent gains compared with state-of-the-art trajectory prediction methods.

On-Policy Distillation (OPD) improves large language model reasoning by training a student model on trajectories sampled from its own policy under teacher supervision. Although OPD operates on trajectories, its learning signal remains token-level: it identifies deviations through high-loss tokens and repairs them through local reverse-KL correction. We show that this "trajectory-sampled but token-learned" mechanism cannot reliably bridge student trajectories toward teacher trajectories. About 30% of high-loss tokens fall into the low-divergence regime, indicating that many are surface-form mismatches rather than real reasoning forks. Moreover, even truly divergent tokens are difficult to repair with isolated token-level supervision, since reasoning failures often unfold as short-horizon distributional drift. We propose Trajectory-aware OPD (TOPD), which uses near-future trajectory information to identify real divergent states and distribute guidance across multiple future tokens. Experiments show that suppressing non-divergent high-loss tokens improves standard OPD from 47.8% to 48.2% average accuracy, while TOPD further improves performance to 52.2%, with gains on AIME24 from 60.0% to 63.3% and AIME25 from 46.7% to 53.3%.

We present the first systematic study of masked diffusion language models (MDLMs) for graph-to-text generation. We analyze MDLM generation trajectories -- the order in which tokens are unmasked during iterative decoding -- and find that, unlike autoregressive LLMs which generate text linearly, MDLMs naturally prioritize entities first, followed by relational and function words, with structural tokens resolved last. We further identify a previously undocumented failure mode of supervised fine-tuning: SFT disrupts this strategy by prematurely anchoring structural sentence-ending tokens early in the decoding trajectory, effectively fixing the output length which can lead to omitted or hallucinated information. To address this, we propose lambda-scaled structural decoding, a training-free inference-time modification that downweights structural token confidence and recovers +9.4 BLEU-4. Finally, we introduce Graph-LLaDA, which integrates a Graph Transformer encoder into LLaDA's decoding process to explicitly incorporate relational graph structure. Cross-dataset evaluation on LAGRANGE reveals that previous baselines overfit to dataset-specific patterns, while LLM- and MDLM-based approaches generalize significantly better.

Agent benchmarks increasingly record rich interaction trajectories, yet evaluation often reduces each rollout to a pass rate or reward score. We introduce TraceGraph, a graph-based framework that turns released multi-model agent trajectories into shared decision landscapes. For each task, TraceGraph builds a graph over observable action-observation states from pooled rollouts before model identity is introduced. It then overlays outcome-informed productive cores and trap regions, and summarizes each rollout with three events: Access, Trap exposure, and Repair. Across trajectories spanning five benchmark splits, TraceGraph profiles reveal navigation differences hidden by aggregate scores and show that splits differ in whether they reward avoiding traps or recovering from them. The same TraceGraph landscape also motivates a trap-aware recovery pipeline for SWE-bench: aruntime detector fires on states matching historical trap regions, then lightweight continuation policies are evaluated from the same prefix. On fired states, the best pooled single-factor policy raises official resolved rate from 40.4% to 43.5% on the per-provider fired subset and from 41.0% to 44.8% on common-fired instances, with provider-specific active components. Overall, TraceGraph provides a process vocabulary for asking what agent benchmarks test, where models diverge on a shared landscape, and how failure regions can guide downstream improvement.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has become pivotal for improving model capabilities yet suffers from rollout efficiency bottlenecks due to the long-tail response length distribution. While existing works mitigate the impact of long tails via prompt-level tail scheduling, we focus on the root source of inefficiency: the distribution itself. Specifically, we characterize the long-tail distribution at a finer granularity, identifying intra-prompt long tails, and revealing that they frequently consist of ineffective verbosity. To address this, we propose a novel paradigm of active distribution shaping to shape the rollout distribution towards conciseness and certainty, thereby fundamentally resolving tail-induced overheads. We achieve this through a distribution-aware trajectory sampling mechanism, which selects trajectories from a redundant exploration space for each prompt, and an adaptive redundancy allocation scheme to maximize both shaping effectiveness and system efficiency. Experiments demonstrate significant acceleration over state-of-the-art systems by up to 1.77x without compromising model performance.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models enable robots to follow natural language instructions and generalize across diverse tasks, but they remain vulnerable to execution failures that compromise reliability in real-world deployment. Detecting such failures during execution is therefore critical for the robust deployment of embodied systems. Existing failure detection methods either rely on expensive action resampling or external models, while alternatives propagate trajectory-level labels uniformly across every timestep, obscuring localized failure signals. In this paper, we propose \textbf{Hide-and-Seek}, a framework that formulates VLA failure detection as a coarsely supervised learning problem. By combining inter-trajectory and intra-trajectory contrastive objectives, Hide-and-Seek localizes failure-indicative actions and induces temporally structured failure signals from trajectory-level supervision alone, without any step-level annotation. We evaluate Hide-and-Seek on LIBERO, VLABench, and a real-world robotic platform across three representative VLA policies: OpenVLA, $π_0$, and $π_{0.5}$.Our method achieves state-of-the-art multi-task failure detection performance with a practical accuracy--timeliness trade-off under conformal prediction, and generalizes well to both seen and unseen tasks.

Non-prehensile robot manipulation is challenging due to discontinuous, long-horizon interactions between the robot and the objects it manipulates. Sampling-based model predictive control methods are effective with discontinuous contact but face challenges with finding promising trajectories in long-horizon planning. We propose a closed-loop object-informed (CLOI) method that splits the problem into object-level planning to find long-horizon object poses that lead the object to its goal, and robot-level planning to select robot actions that follow those poses. We use model predictive path integral (MPPI) control to solve the subproblems and couple their solutions through consensus on the object poses using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The object plan is revised toward robot-realizable object trajectories, while the robot plan is aligned with the object poses the task requires. In planar pushing tasks with obstacles using an xArm6 manipulator, CLOI increases the success rate by 35% in simulation and 43% on hardware, compared to standard MPPI given the same computational budget.