Reliable Uncertainty Quantification

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) systems face a compounding alignment challenge: not only are learned reward models uncertain about unseen state-action pairs, but the human preference annotations they are trained on are themselves inconsistent, context-dependent, and noisy. Existing approaches address these uncertainty sources in isolation - epistemic uncertainty is used to guide exploration, while preference uncertainty is absorbed during reward model training but discarded during policy optimization. We introduce Uncertainty-Aware Reward Discounting (UARD), a principled framework that jointly models epistemic uncertainty in value estimation via ensemble disagreement and aleatoric uncertainty in human preference annotations via annotator variability, combining these signals through a confidence-adjusted Reliability Filter that adaptively modulates reward weighting during policy optimization. We prove that this dynamic discounting preserves the contraction property of the Bellman operator, guaranteeing convergence to a unique fixed point, and provide an information-theoretic justification grounded in the Information Bottleneck principle. Empirically, UARD reduces reward hacking incidents by up to 93.6% across discrete decision-making and continuous control benchmarks (MuJoCo) compared to nine baselines including DQN, Ensemble-DQN, CQL, CPO, TRPO, SAC, EDAC, SUNRISE, and PPO, while maintaining competitive task performance on well-specified rewards. Under annotation noise ranging from 10% to 30% Gaussian perturbation, UARD retains near-zero safety violations compared to baselines' near-linear degradation. These results demonstrate that treating uncertainty as an active component of the optimization objective - rather than a passive diagnostic signal - provides a principled pathway toward more reliable and aligned RL systems.

Frontier artificial intelligence is reshaping all aspects of society, from economic output or military capability to democratic institutions. The EU is entering this transformation from a position of structural dependence: frontier models originate almost exclusively from the United States or China, the US holds approximately sixteen times the EU's AI supercomputing capacity, and only 15% of global hyperscale data centre capacity resides within EU borders. Although the European Commission has accelerated its policy response, existing initiatives remain fragmented and lack a cohesive vision for securing strategic autonomy across the full frontier AI value chain. Here we propose a unified framework connecting five sovereignty pillars (economic competitiveness, resilience, security and defence, European values, and foreign relations) to a decomposition of the frontier AI stack comprising five layers, 26 components, and 29 sub-components. This framework allows the identification of critical gaps, redundancies, and inter-pillar trade-offs that current EU policy leaves implicit. Our analysis of the AI Gigafactory Initiative illustrates how a sovereignty-centred lens reveals conflicts that narrowly economic framings obscure. Moreover, this framework offers policymakers a structured basis for designing, evaluating, and prioritising frontier AI interventions across multiple dimensions of European strategic autonomy across the 92 initiatives from four major Commission communications we. identify, and beyond.

We propose Frictive Policy Optimization (FPO), a framework for learning language model policies that regulate not only what to say, but when and how to intervene in order to manage epistemic and normative risk. Unlike standard alignment methods that optimize surface-level preference or task utility, FPO treats clarification, verification, challenge, redirection, and refusal as explicit control actions whose purpose is to shape the evolution of belief, commitment, and uncertainty over time. We formalize alignment as a risk-sensitive epistemic control problem in which intervention decisions are selected based on their expected effect on downstream epistemic quality rather than on immediate reward alone. We introduce a compact taxonomy of frictive interventions, a structured friction functional that operationalizes multiple alignment failure modes, and a unified family of FPO methods spanning reward shaping, preference pairing, group-relative ranking, and risk-conditioned trust regions. We further propose an evaluation framework that measures epistemic competence directly through clarification behavior, calibration, contradiction repair, refusal proportionality, and information efficiency. Together, these results provide a formal and algorithmic foundation for learning agents that are aligned not only in outcome, but in epistemic conduct.

Machine Learning is becoming more prevalent in science and engineering, but many approaches do not provide meaningful uncertainty estimates and predictions may also violate known physical knowledge. We propose a Bayesian framework to embed linear relationships across inputs and outputs into the learning process, whilst characterizing full predictive uncertainty over both the model parameters and the domain knowledge. We evaluated our method on learning the single particle battery model subject to voltage and energy balances, showing its ability to provide reduced credible intervals and constraint violations compared to standard Bayesian neural networks based on variational inference.

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) predict through human-interpretable concepts, but they typically output point concept probabilities that conflate epistemic uncertainty (reducible model underspecification) with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible input ambiguity). This makes concept-level uncertainty hard to interpret and, more importantly, hard to act upon. We introduce CREDENCE (Credal Ensemble Concept Estimation), a CBM framework that decomposes concept uncertainty by construction. CREDENCE represents each concept as a credal prediction (a probability interval), derives epistemic uncertainty from disagreement across diverse concept heads, and estimates aleatoric uncertainty via a dedicated ambiguity output trained to match annotator disagreement when available. The resulting signals support prescriptive decisions: automate low-uncertainty cases, prioritize data collection for high-epistemic cases, route high-aleatoric cases to human review, and abstain when both are high. Across several tasks, we show that epistemic uncertainty is positively associated with prediction errors, whereas aleatoric uncertainty closely tracks annotator disagreement, providing guidance beyond error correlation. Our implementation is available at the following link: https://github.com/Tankiit/Credal_Sets/tree/ensemble-credal-cbm

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed to autonomously solve real-world tasks. A key ingredient for this is the LLM Function-Calling paradigm, a widely used approach for equipping LLMs with tool-use capabilities. However, an LLM calling functions incorrectly can have severe implications, especially when their effects are irreversible, e.g., transferring money or deleting data. Hence, it is of paramount importance to consider the LLM's confidence that a function call solves the task correctly prior to executing it. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods can be used to quantify this confidence and prevent potentially incorrect function calls. In this work, we present what is, to our knowledge, the first evaluation of UQ methods for LLM Function-Calling (FC). While multi-sample UQ methods, such as Semantic Entropy, show strong performance for natural language Q&A tasks, we find that in the FC setting, it offers no clear advantage over simple single-sample UQ methods. Additionally, we find that the particularities of FC outputs can be leveraged to improve the performance of existing UQ methods in this setting. Specifically, multi-sample UQ methods benefit from clustering FC outputs based on their abstract syntax tree parsing, while single-sample UQ methods can be improved by selecting only semantically meaningful tokens when calculating logit-based uncertainty scores.

We address the problem of searching for an unknown number of stationary targets at unknown positions with a mobile agent. A probability hypothesis density filter is used to estimate the expected number of targets under measurement uncertainty. Existing planners, such as Active Search (AS) and its Intermittent variant (ASI), achieve accurate detection but require costly online optimization. To reduce online computation, we propose to use a convolutional neural network to approximate AS or ASI decisions through direct inference. The network is trained on AS/ASI data using a multi-channel grid that encodes target beliefs, the agent position, visitation history, and boundary information. Simulations with uniform and clustered target distributions show that the network achieves detection rates comparable to AS or ASI while reducing computation by orders of magnitude.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide rigorous uncertainty quantification, their heavy computational bottlenecks render them impractical for real-time process control. To overcome this limitation, we propose an AI-driven framework utilizing Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) powered by amortized neural posterior estimation to diagnose complex failure modes in heat exchangers. By training neural density estimators on a simulated dataset, our approach learns a direct, likelihood-free mapping from thermal-fluid observations to the full posterior distribution of degradation parameters. We benchmark this framework against an MCMC baseline across various synthetic fouling and leakage scenarios, including challenging low-probability, sparse-event failures. The results show that SBI achieves comparable diagnostic accuracy and reliable uncertainty quantification, while accelerating inference time by a factor of82$\times$ compared to traditional sampling. The amortized nature of the neural network enables near-instantaneous inference, establishing SBI as a highly scalable, real-time alternative for probabilistic fault diagnosis and digital twin realization in complex engineering systems.

We introduce and study the problem of calibrating conditional risk, which involves estimating the expected loss of a prediction model conditional on input features. We analyze this problem in both classification and regression settings and show that it is fundamentally equivalent to a standard regression task. For classification settings, we further establish a connection between conditional risk calibration and individual/conditional probability calibration, and develop theoretical insights for the performance metric. This reveals that while conditional risk calibration is related to existing uncertainty quantification problems, it remains a distinct and standalone machine learning problem. Empirically, we validate our theoretical findings and demonstrate the practical implications of conditional risk calibration in the learning to defer (L2D) framework. Our systematic experiments provide both qualitative and quantitative assessments, offering guidance for future research in uncertainty-aware decision-making.

Constructivist epistemology argues that knowledge is actively constructed rather than passively copied. Despite the generative nature of Large Language Models (LLMs), most existing agent memory systems are still based on dense retrieval. However, dense retrieval heavily relies on semantic overlap or entity matching within sentences. Consequently, embeddings often fail to distinguish instances that are semantically similar but contextually distinct, introducing substantial noise by retrieving context-mismatched entries. Conversely, directly employing open-ended generation for memory access risks "Structural Hallucination" where the model generates memory keys that do not exist in the memory, leading to lookup failures. Inspired by this epistemology, we posit that memory is fundamentally organized by cognitive schemas, and valid recall must be a generative process performed within these schematic structures. To realize this, we propose SCG-MEM, a schema-constrained generative memory architecture. SCG-MEM reformulates memory access as Schema-Constrained Generation. By maintaining a dynamic Cognitive Schema, we strictly constrain LLM decoding to generate only valid memory entry keys, providing a formal guarantee against structural hallucinations. To support long-term adaptation, we model memory updates via assimilation (grounding inputs into existing schemas) and accommodation (expanding schemas with novel concepts). Furthermore, we construct an Associative Graph to enable multi-hop reasoning through activation propagation. Experiments on the LoCoMo benchmark show that SCG-MEM substantially improves performance across all categories over retrieval-based baselines.

Complex-Valued Neural Networks (CVNNs) have significant advantages in handling tasks that involve complex numbers. However, existing CVNNs are unable to quantify predictive uncertainty. We propose, for the first time, dropout-based Bayesian Complex-Valued Neural Networks (BayesCVNNs) to enable uncertainty quantification for complex-valued applications, exhibiting broad applicability and efficiency for hardware implementation due to modularity. Furthermore, as the dual-part nature of complex values significantly broadens the design space and enables novel configurations based on layer-mixing and part-mixing, we introduce an automated search approach to effectively identify optimal configurations for both real and imaginary components. To facilitate deployment, we present a framework that generates customized FPGA-based accelerators for BayesCVNNs, leveraging a set of optimized building blocks. Experiments demonstrate the best configuration can be effectively found via the automated search, attaining higher performance with lower hardware costs compared with manually crafted models. The optimized accelerators achieve approximately 4.5x and 13x speedups on different models with less than 10% power consumption compared to GPU implementations, and outperform existing work in both algorithm and hardware aspects. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/zehuanzhang/BayesCVNN.git.

Transformer-based scientific foundation models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes settings, but current architectures give deterministic outputs and provide limited support for calibrated predictive uncertainty. We propose Stochastic Attention, a sample average lightweight inference-time modification that randomizes attention by replacing softmax weights with normalized multinomial samples controlled by a single concentration parameter, and produces predictive ensembles without retraining. To set this parameter, we introduce a calibration objective that matches the stochastic attention output with the target, yielding an efficient univariate post-hoc tuning problem. We evaluate this mechanism on scientific foundation models for weather and time-series forecasting, as well as several regression tasks. Across benchmarks against uncertainty-aware baselines, we find that Sample Average Stochastic Attention achieves the strongest native calibration and the sharpest prediction intervals at comparable calibration, with adaptation costs nearly three orders of magnitude lower than the next-best baseline.

This paper proposes a multi-step probabilistic forecasting framework using a single neural-network based model to generate simultaneous point and interval forecasts. Our approach ensures non-crossing prediction intervals (PIs) through a model structure design that strictly satisfy a target coverage probability (PICP) while maximizing sharpness. Unlike existing methods that rely on manual weight tuning for scalarized loss functions, we treat point and PI forecasting as a multi-objective optimization problem, utilizing multi-gradient descent to adaptively select optimal weights. Key innovations include a new PI loss function based on an extended log-barrier with an adaptive hyperparameter to guarantee the coverage, a hybrid architecture featuring a shared temporal model with horizon-specific submodels, and a training strategy. The proposed loss is scale-independent and universally applicable; combined with our training algorithm, the framework eliminates trial-and-error hyperparameter tuning for balancing multiple objectives. Validated by an intra-day solar irradiance forecasting application, results demonstrate that our proposed loss consistently outperforms those in current literature by achieving target coverage with the narrowest PI widths. Furthermore, when compared against LSTM encoder-decoder and Transformer architectures--including those augmented with Chronos foundation models--our method remains highly competitive and can be seamlessly adapted to any deep learning structure.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in safety-critical systems, where decisions must be made under uncertainty. In particular, we consider the problem of online uncertainty quantification, where data points arrive sequentially. Online conformal prediction is a principled online uncertainty quantification method that dynamically constructs a prediction set at each time step. While existing methods for online conformal prediction provide long-run coverage guarantees without any distributional assumptions, they typically assume a full feedback setting in which the true label is always observed. In this paper, we propose a novel learning method for online conformal prediction with partial feedback from an adaptive adversary-a more challenging setup where the true label is revealed only when it lies inside the constructed prediction set. Specifically, we formulate online conformal prediction as an adversarial bandit problem by treating each candidate prediction set as an arm. Building on an existing algorithm for adversarial bandits, our method achieves a long-run coverage guarantee by explicitly establishing its connection to the regret of the learner. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in both independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) and non-i.i.d. settings, showing that it successfully controls the miscoverage rate while maintaining a reasonable size of the prediction set.

Generalizable Neural Radiance Fields (GeNeRFs) enable high-quality scene reconstruction from sparse views and can generalize to unseen scenes. However, in real-world settings, transient distractors break cross-view structural consistency, corrupting supervision and degrading reconstruction quality. Existing distractor-free NeRF methods rely on per-scene optimization and estimate uncertainty from per-view reconstruction errors, which are not reliable for GeNeRFs and often misjudge inconsistent static structures as distractors. To this end, we propose MU-GeNeRF, a Multi-view Uncertainty-guided distractor-aware GeNeRF framework designed to alleviate GeNeRF's robust modeling challenges in the presence of transient distractions. We decompose distractor awareness into two complementary uncertainty components: Source-view Uncertainty, which captures structural discrepancies across source views caused by viewpoint changes or dynamic factors; and Target-view Uncertainty, which detects observation anomalies in the target image induced by transient distractors.These two uncertainties address distinct error sources and are combined through a heteroscedastic reconstruction loss, which guides the model to adaptively modulate supervision, enabling more robust distractor suppression and geometric modeling.Extensive experiments show that our method not only surpasses existing GeNeRFs but also achieves performance comparable to scene-specific distractor-free NeRFs.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect responses, and uncertainty quantification is one potential solution to more robust usage. Recent works routinely rely on self-consistency to estimate aleatoric uncertainty (AU), yet this proxy collapses when models are overconfident and produce the same incorrect answer across samples. We analyze this regime and show that cross-model semantic disagreement is higher on incorrect answers precisely when AU is low. Motivated by this, we introduce an epistemic uncertainty (EU) term that operates in the black-box access setting: EU uses only generated text from a small, scale-matched ensemble and is computed as the gap between inter-model and intra-model sequence-semantic similarity. We then define total uncertainty (TU) as the sum of AU and EU. In a comprehensive study across five 7-9B instruction-tuned models and ten long-form tasks, TU improves ranking calibration and selective abstention relative to AU, and EU reliably flags confident failures where AU is low. We further characterize when EU is most useful via agreement and complementarity diagnostics.

Coherent systems are representative of many practical applications, ranging from infrastructure networks to supply chains. Probabilistic evaluation of such systems remains challenging, however, because existing decomposition-based methods scale poorly as the number of components grows. To address this limitation, this study proposes the Reference-state System Reliability (RSR) method. Like existing approaches, RSR characterises the boundary between different system states using reference states in the component-state space. Where it departs from these methods is in how the state space is explored: rather than using reference states to decompose the space into disjoint hypercubes, RSR uses them to classify Monte Carlo samples, making computational cost significantly less sensitive to the number of reference states. To make this classification efficient, samples and reference states are stored as matrices and compared using batched matrix operations, allowing RSR to exploit the advances in high-throughput matrix computing driven by modern machine learning. We demonstrate that RSR evaluates the system-state probability of a graph with 119 nodes and 295 edges within 10~seconds, highlighting its potential for real-time risk assessment of large-scale systems. We further show that RSR scales to problems involving hundreds of thousands of reference states -- well beyond the reach of existing methods -- and extends naturally to multi-state systems. Nevertheless, when the number of boundary reference states grows exceedingly large, RSR's convergence slows down, a limitation shared with existing reference-state-based approaches that motivates future research into learning-based representations of system-state boundaries.

Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management. Current studies mainly focus on deterministic predictions, with limited considerations on the uncertainty and stochasticity in traffic dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes an elegant yet universal approach that transforms existing models into probabilistic predictors by replacing only the final output layer with a novel Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) layer. The modified model requires no changes to the training pipeline and can be trained using only the Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) loss, without any auxiliary or regularization terms. Experiments on multiple traffic datasets show that our approach generalizes from classic to modern model architectures while preserving deterministic performance. Furthermore, we propose a systematic evaluation procedure based on cumulative distributions and confidence intervals, and demonstrate that our approach is considerably more accurate and informative than unimodal or deterministic baselines. Finally, a more detailed study on a real-world dense urban traffic network is presented to examine the impact of data quality on uncertainty quantification and to show the robustness of our approach under imperfect data conditions. Code available at https://github.com/Weijiang-Xiong/OpenSkyTraffic

Machine learning in high-stakes domains such as healthcare requires not only strong predictive performance but also reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) to support human oversight. Multi-label text classification (MLTC) is a central task in this domain, yet remains challenging due to label imbalances, dependencies, and combinatorial complexity. Existing MLTC benchmarks are increasingly saturated and may be affected by training data contamination, making it difficult to distinguish genuine reasoning capabilities from memorization. We introduce MADE, a living MLTC benchmark derived from {m}edical device {ad}verse {e}vent reports and continuously updated with newly published reports to prevent contamination. MADE features a long-tailed distribution of hierarchical labels and enables reproducible evaluation with strict temporal splits. We establish baselines across more than 20 encoder- and decoder-only models under fine-tuning and few-shot settings (instruction-tuned/reasoning variants, local/API-accessible). We systematically assess entropy-/consistency-based and self-verbalized UQ methods. Results show clear trade-offs: smaller discriminatively fine-tuned decoders achieve the strongest head-to-tail accuracy while maintaining competitive UQ; generative fine-tuning delivers the most reliable UQ; large reasoning models improve performance on rare labels yet exhibit surprisingly weak UQ; and self-verbalized confidence is not a reliable proxy for uncertainty. Our work is publicly available at https://hhi.fraunhofer.de/aml-demonstrator/made-benchmark.

Learning Path Recommendation (LPR) is critical for personalized education, yet current methods often fail to account for historical interaction uncertainty (e.g., lucky guesses or accidental slips) and lack adaptability to diverse learning goals. We propose U-GLAD (Uncertainty-aware Generative Learning Path Recommendation with Cognition-Adaptive Diffusion). To address representation bias, the framework models cognitive states as probability distributions, capturing the learner's underlying true state via a Gaussian LSTM. To ensure highly personalized recommendation, a goal-oriented concept encoder utilizes multi-head attention and objective-specific transformations to dynamically align concept semantics with individual learning goals, generating uniquely tailored embeddings. Unlike traditional discriminative ranking approaches, our model employs a generative diffusion model to predict the latent representation of the next optimal concept. Extensive evaluations on three public datasets demonstrate that U-GLAD significantly outperforms representative baselines. Further analyses confirm its superior capability in perceiving interaction uncertainty and providing stable, goal-driven recommendation paths.

This position paper argues that Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems exhibit a factual bias-optimizing for epistemic uncertainty reduction while ignoring the aleatoric uncertainty inherent in opinion-rich content. This misalignment demands a paradigm shift in RAG system design. A survey of 34 major RAG benchmarks reveals that only one addresses opinion synthesis, confirming that the bias is structural and embedded in datasets, retrieval-generation objectives, and evaluation metrics alike. Beyond technical limitations, this bias poses risks to transparent and accountable AI. Namely, echo chamber effects that amplify dominant viewpoints, which can lead to opinion manipulation and under-representation of minority voices. We formalize the problem through the lens of uncertainty quantification, showing that factual queries should minimize posterior entropy while opinion queries must preserve it. We derive a unified objective over coverage, fidelity, and fairness using the Wasserstein distance. As an existence proof, we present Opinion-Aware RAG (O-RAG), an architecture featuring LLM-based opinion extraction and entity-linked opinion metadata. We evaluate it across two domains -- e-commerce seller forums and public hotel reviews. Experiments demonstrate 18-48% reduction in Wasserstein distance to corpus-level sentiment distributions, +26.8% sentiment diversity, and +42.7% entity match rate. Human evaluators preferred opinion-enriched generation 79.2% of the time. We propose a research agenda and argue that as RAG systems increasingly mediate access to information, their ability to represent diverse perspectives is of the essence.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is moving increasingly beyond prediction to support decisions in complex, uncertain, and dynamic environments. This shift creates a natural intersection with operations research and management science (OR/MS), which has long provided methodological foundations for sequential decision making under uncertainty. At the same time, deep learning advances, including feedforward neural networks, recurrent architectures, transformers, large language models (LLMs), and deep reinforcement learning, have expanded data-driven modeling for large-scale decisions. This tutorial presents an OR/MS-centered perspective on deep learning for sequential decision making under uncertainty, bridging neural architectures and OR/MS approaches to decision making. Its premise: deep learning complements optimization rather than replacing it. Deep learning brings adaptability and scalable approximation, whereas OR/MS provides the mathematical rigor to represent constraints, recourse, uncertainty, and decision quality. The tutorial reviews key decision making foundations, connects them to the major neural architectures in modern AI, and organizes the field around three central themes: predict-then-optimize and decision-aware learning, learning-based decision generation under constraints for continuous and discrete problems with temporal coupling, and deep reinforcement learning for sequential and combinatorial decision making. Impact spans supply chains, service systems, healthcare and epidemic response, agriculture, energy, environmental sustainability, and autonomous operations. This tutorial frames these developments as part of a shift from predictive AI toward decision-capable AI, highlighting OR/MS's role in shaping the next generation of integrated learning--optimization systems.

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight alternative through two approximations: a first-order Taylor expansion that expresses uncertainty in terms of the gradient of the prediction and the parameter covariance, and an isotropy assumption on the parameter covariance. Together, these yield epistemic uncertainty as the squared gradient norm and aleatoric uncertainty as the Bernoulli variance of the point prediction, from a single forward-backward pass through an unmodified pretrained model. We justify the isotropy assumption by showing that covariance estimates built from non-training data introduce structured distortions that isotropic covariance avoids, and that theoretical results on the spectral properties of large networks support the approximation at scale. Validation against reference Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimates on synthetic problems shows strong correspondence that improves with model size. We then use the estimates to investigate when each uncertainty type carries useful signal for predicting answer correctness in question answering with large language models, revealing a benchmark-dependent divergence: the combined estimate achieves the highest mean AUROC on TruthfulQA, where questions involve genuine conflict between plausible answers, but falls to near chance on TriviaQA's factual recall, suggesting that parameter-level uncertainty captures a fundamentally different signal than self-assessment methods.

Credal sets, i.e., closed convex sets of probability measures, provide a natural framework to represent aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in machine learning. Yet how to quantify these two types of uncertainty for a given credal set, particularly in multiclass classification, remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a distance-based approach to quantify total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty for credal sets. Concretely, we introduce a family of such measures within the framework of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs). The resulting quantities admit clear semantic interpretations, satisfy natural theoretical desiderata, and remain computationally tractable for common choices of IPMs. We instantiate the framework with the total variation distance and obtain simple, efficient uncertainty measures for multiclass classification. In the binary case, this choice recovers established uncertainty measures, for which a principled multiclass generalization has so far been missing. Empirical results confirm practical usefulness, with favorable performance at low computational cost.

Upcoming stage-IV surveys such as Euclid and Rubin will deliver vast amounts of high-precision data, opening new opportunities to constrain cosmological models with unprecedented accuracy. A key step in this process is the reconstruction of the dark matter distribution from noisy weak-lensing shear measurements. Current deep-learning-based mass-mapping methods achieve high reconstruction accuracy, but either require retraining a model for each new observed sky region (limiting practicality) or rely on slow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Efficient exploitation of future survey data therefore calls for a new method that is accurate, flexible, and fast at inference. In addition, an uncertainty quantification with coverage guarantees is essential for a reliable cosmological parameter estimation. We introduce PnPMass, a plug-and-play approach for weak-lensing mass mapping. The algorithm produces point estimates by alternating between a gradient descent step with a carefully chosen data fidelity term and a denoising step implemented with a single deep-learning model trained on simulated data corrupted by Gaussian white noise. We also propose a fast sampling-free uncertainty quantification scheme based on moment networks, with calibrated error bars obtained through conformal prediction to ensure coverage guarantees. Finally, we benchmark PnPMass against model-driven and data-driven mass-mapping techniques. PnPMass achieves a performance close to that of the currently best deep-learning methods while offering fast inference. It converges in just a few iterations, and it requires only a single training phase, regardless of the noise covariance of the observations. It therefore combines flexibility, efficiency, and reconstruction accuracy while delivering tighter error bars than existing approaches, making it well suited for upcoming weak-lensing surveys.

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are essential for making reliable predictions about latent functions from noisy data, and thus, a key enabler for safe learning-based control. In this domain, kernel methods such as Gaussian process regression are established techniques, thanks to their inherent uncertainty quantification mechanism. Still, existing bounds either pose strong assumptions on the underlying noise distribution, are conservative, do not directly apply in the multi-output case, or are difficult to integrate into downstream tasks. This paper addresses these limitations by presenting a tight, deterministic bound for multi-output functions in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHSs) subject to bounded noise. It is obtained through an unconstrained, duality-based formulation, which shares the same structure as classic Gaussian process confidence bounds, and can thus be straightforwardly integrated into downstream optimization pipelines. We show that the proposed bound generalizes existing results and illustrate its application using an example inspired by quadrotor dynamics learning.

Accurate trajectory prediction is critical for safe autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While many trajectory predictors output Gaussian distributions to represent the multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian positions, the reliability of their confidence levels often remains unaddressed. This limitation can lead to unsafe or overly conservative motion planning when the predictor is integrated with an uncertainty-aware planner. Existing Gaussian trajectory predictors primarily rely on the Negative Log-Likelihood loss, which is prone to predict over- or under-confident distributions, and may compromise downstream planner safety. This paper introduces a novel loss function for calibrating prediction uncertainty which leverages Kernel Density Estimation to estimate the empirical distribution of confidence levels. The proposed formulation enforces consistency with the properties of a Gaussian assumption by explicitly matching the estimated empirical distribution to the Chi-squared distribution. To ensure accurate mean prediction, a Mean Squared Error term is also incorporated in the final loss formulation. Experimental results on real-world trajectory datasets show that our method significantly improves the reliability of confidence levels predicted by different State-Of-The-Art Gaussian trajectory predictors. We also demonstrate the importance of providing planners with reliable probabilistic insights (i.e. calibrated confidence levels) for collision-free navigation in complex scenarios. For this purpose, we integrate Gaussian trajectory predictors trained with our loss function with an uncertainty-aware Model Predictive Control on scenarios extracted from real-world datasets, achieving improved planning performance through calibrated confidence levels.

In classical Informative Path Planning (C-IPP), robots are typically modeled as mobile sensors that acquire digital measurements such as images or radiation levels. In this model, since making a measurement leaves the robot's physical state unchanged, the cost of traversing an edge remains static regardless of when it is traversed. This is a natural assumption for many missions, but does not extend to settings involving physical sample collection, where each collected sample adds mass and increases the energy cost of all subsequent motion. As a result, IPP formulations that ignore this coupling between information gain and load-dependent traversal cost can produce plans that are distance-efficient but energy-suboptimal, collecting fewer samples and less data than the energy budget would permit. In this paper, we first introduce Load-aware Informative Path Planning (LIPP), a strict generalization of C-IPP that explicitly models this coupling, with C-IPP recovered as the special case of zero sample mass. We then formulate LIPP as a Mixed-Integer Quadratic Program (MIQP) that jointly optimizes visitation location, order, and per-location sampling count under an energy budget. We further derive theoretical bounds on the path-length increase of LIPP relative to C-IPP, characterizing the trade-off for improved energy efficiency. Finally, through extensive simulations across 2,000 diverse mission scenarios, we demonstrate that LIPP progressively achieves higher uncertainty reduction per unit energy as sample mass increases.

Inertial measurement units (IMUs), which provide high-frequency linear acceleration and angular velocity measurements, serve as fundamental sensing modalities in robotic systems. Recent advances in deep neural networks have led to remarkable progress in inertial odometry. However, the heavy reliance on ground truth data during training fundamentally limits scalability and generalization to unseen and diverse environments. We propose KISS-IMU, a novel self-supervised inertial odometry framework that eliminates ground truth dependency by leveraging simple LiDAR-based ICP registration and pose graph optimization as a supervisory signal. Our approach embodies two key principles: keeping the IMU stable through motion-aware balanced training and keeping the IMU strong through uncertainty-driven adaptive weighting during inference. To evaluate performance across diverse motion patterns and scenarios, we conducted comprehensive experiments on various real-world platforms, including quadruped robots. Importantly, we train only the IMU network in a self-supervised manner, with LiDAR serving solely as a lightweight supervisory signal rather than requiring additional learnable processes. This design enables the framework to ensure robustness without relying on joint multi-modal learning or ground truth supervision. The supplementary materials are available at https://sparolab.github.io/research/kiss_imu.

Ambiguous 3D medical image segmentation often involves boundaries where different expert delineations are non-identical yet clinically plausible. Modeling such inter-observer variability requires a careful balance between diversity and anatomical fidelity: deterministic models preserve coherent volumetric structures but collapse expert disagreement into a single mask, while stochastic generative models can produce diverse samples but may introduce disconnected components or slice-to-slice inconsistency when generating full 3D masks from unstructured noise. We propose Volumetric Directional Diffusion (VDD), a prior-anchored diffusion framework that shifts stochastic generation from full-mask synthesis to residual boundary exploration. VDD uses a coarse consensus prediction as an anatomical anchor and learns a directional diffusion process to generate plausible boundary variations around ambiguous regions while preserving stable volumetric topology. Experiments on three multi-rater datasets, including LIDC-IDRI, KiTS21, and ISBI 2015, show that VDD improves uncertainty distribution alignment while maintaining competitive segmentation accuracy and 3D structural consistency. These results suggest that prior-anchored residual diffusion can model clinically plausible expert disagreement without sacrificing anatomical fidelity.

In safety-critical classification, the cost of failure is often asymmetric, yet Bayesian deep learning summarises epistemic uncertainty with a single scalar, mutual information (MI), that cannot distinguish whether a model's ignorance involves a benign or safety-critical class. We decompose MI into a per-class vector $C_k(x)=σ_k^{2}/(2μ_k)$, with $μ_k{=}\mathbb{E}[p_k]$ and $σ_k^2{=}\mathrm{Var}[p_k]$ across posterior samples. The decomposition follows from a second-order Taylor expansion of the entropy; the $1/μ_k$ weighting corrects boundary suppression and makes $C_k$ comparable across rare and common classes. By construction $\sum_k C_k \approx \mathrm{MI}$, and a companion skewness diagnostic flags inputs where the approximation degrades. After characterising the axiomatic properties of $C_k$, we validate it on three tasks: (i) selective prediction for diabetic retinopathy, where critical-class $C_k$ reduces selective risk by 34.7% over MI and 56.2% over variance baselines; (ii) out-of-distribution detection on clinical and image benchmarks, where $\sum_k C_k$ achieves the highest AUROC and the per-class view exposes asymmetric shifts invisible to MI; and (iii) a controlled label-noise study in which $\sum_k C_k$ shows less sensitivity to injected aleatoric noise than MI under end-to-end Bayesian training, while both metrics degrade under transfer learning. Across all tasks, the quality of the posterior approximation shapes uncertainty at least as strongly as the choice of metric, suggesting that how uncertainty is propagated through the network matters as much as how it is measured.

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently suffer from miscalibration, manifested as overconfidence in erroneous predictions. To facilitate clinical acceptance, it is imperative that models quantify uncertainty in a manner that correlates with prediction correctness, allowing clinicians to identify unreliable outputs for further review. To address this necessity, this paper proposes a probabilistic optimization framework grounded in Bayesian deep learning. Specifically, the Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Curve (CUBC) is first explored as an intermediate operational target. Grounded in this target, a novel Confidence-Uncertainty Boundary Loss (CUB-Loss) is proposed to regularize the alignment between prediction confidence and uncertainty estimates during training, imposing penalties on high-certainty errors and low-certainty correct predictions. Upon completion of training optimization, a Boundary Curve Calibration Error (BCCE) metric is further introduced to measure the degree of boundary alignment in the calibrated model. Building on this measurement, a Dual Temperature Scaling (DTS) strategy is devised to perform post-hoc refinement, further adjusting the posterior predictive distribution across different confidence-uncertainty regions. The proposed framework is validated on three distinct medical imaging tasks: automatic screening of pneumonia, diabetic retinopathy detection, and identification of skin lesions. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves uncertainty calibration across diverse modalities, maintains robust performance in data-scarce scenarios, and remains effective on severely imbalanced datasets, underscoring its potential for real clinical deployment.

Inverse problems are fundamental to many scientific and engineering disciplines; they arise when one seeks to reconstruct hidden, underlying quantities from noisy measurements. Many applications demand not just point estimates but interpretable uncertainty. Providing fast inference alongside uncertainty estimates remains challenging yet desirable in numerous applications. We propose the Variational Sparse Paired Autoencoder (vsPAIR) to address this challenge. The architecture pairs a standard VAE encoding observations with a sparse VAE encoding quantities of interest (QoI), connected through a learned latent mapping. The variational structure enables uncertainty estimation, the paired architecture encourages interpretability by anchoring QoI representations to clean data, and sparse encodings provide structure by concentrating information into identifiable factors rather than diffusing across all dimensions. To validate the effectiveness of our proposed architecture, we conduct experiments on blind inpainting, computed tomography (CT), and initial-condition inference for the heat equation, demonstrating that vsPAIR is a capable inverse problem solver that can provide interpretable and structured uncertainty estimates.

Parallel imaging techniques reduce magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan time but image quality degrades as the acceleration factor increases. In clinical practice, conservative acceleration factors are chosen because no mechanism exists to automatically assess the diagnostic quality of undersampled reconstructions. This work introduces a general framework for pixel-wise uncertainty quantification in parallel MRI reconstructions, enabling automatic identification of unreliable regions without access to any ground-truth reference image. Our method integrates conformal quantile regression with image reconstruction methods to estimate statistically rigorous pixel-wise uncertainty intervals. We trained and evaluated our model on Cartesian undersampled brain and knee data obtained from the fastMRI dataset using acceleration factors ranging from 2 to 10. An end-to-end Variational Network was used for image reconstruction. Quantitative experiments demonstrate strong agreement between predicted uncertainty maps and true reconstruction error. Using our method, the corresponding Pearson correlation coefficient was higher than 90% at acceleration levels at and above four-fold; whereas it dropped to less than 70% when the uncertainty was computed using a simpler a heuristic notion (magnitude of the residual). Qualitative examples further show the uncertainty maps based on quantile regression capture the magnitude and spatial distribution of reconstruction errors across acceleration factors, with regions of elevated uncertainty aligning with pathologies and artifacts. The proposed framework enables evaluation of reconstruction quality without access to fully-sampled ground-truth reference images. It represents a step toward adaptive MRI acquisition protocols that may be able to dynamically balance scan time and diagnostic reliability.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) provide a framework for integrating physical laws with data. However, their application to Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) remains constrained by the limited uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities. Most existing PINN-based prognostics approaches are deterministic or account only for epistemic uncertainty, limiting their suitability for risk-aware decision-making. This work introduces a heteroscedastic Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Network (B-PINN) framework that jointly models epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, yielding full predictive posteriors for spatiotemporal insulation material ageing estimation. The approach integrates Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) with physics-based residual enforcement and prior distributions, enabling probabilistic inference within a physics-informed learning architecture. The framework is evaluated on transformer insulation ageing application, validated with a finite-element thermal model and field measurements from a solar power plant, and benchmarked against deterministic PINNs, dropout-based PINNs (d-PINNs), and alternative B-PINN variants. Results show that the proposed B-PINN provides improved predictive accuracy and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates than competing approaches. A systematic sensitivity study further analyzes the impact of boundary-condition, initial-condition, and residual sampling strategies on accuracy, calibration, and generalization, and the influence of measurement noise on aleatoric uncertainty. Overall, the findings highlight the capability of Bayesian physics-informed learning to support uncertainty-aware prognostics and informed decision-making in transformer asset management by tracking aleatoric and epistemic sources of uncertainty.

The rapid growth in wireless infrastructure has increased the need to accurately estimate and forecast electromagnetic field (EMF) levels to ensure ongoing compliance, assess potential health impacts, and support efficient network planning. While existing studies rely on univariate forecasting of wideband aggregate EMF data, multivariate narrow-band EMF forecasting is needed to capture the inter-operator and inter-frequency variations essential for proactive network planning. To this end, this paper introduces EMFusion, a conditional diffusion-based EMF forecasting framework that integrates diverse contextual factors, such as time of day, season, and holidays, while providing uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasts. The proposed architecture features a residual U-Net backbone enhanced by a cross-attention mechanism that dynamically integrates external conditions to guide the generation process. Furthermore, EMFusion integrates an imputation-based sampling strategy that treats forecasting as a structural inpainting task, ensuring temporal coherence even with irregular measurements. Unlike standard point forecasters, EMFusion generates empirical probabilistic prediction intervals from the learned conditional distribution, providing uncertainty-aware probabilistic forecasting rather than simple point estimation. Numerical experiments conducted on the multivariate narrow-band EMF datasets demonstrate that EMFusion with the contextual information of working hours outperforms the baseline models with or without conditions. The proposed EMFusion outperforms the best baseline by 23.85% in continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) and 13.93% in normalized root mean square error.

Accurate and reliable aircraft landing time prediction is essential for effective resource allocation in air traffic management. However, the inherent uncertainty of aircraft trajectories and traffic flows poses significant challenges to both prediction accuracy and trustworthiness. Therefore, prediction models should not only provide point estimates of aircraft landing times but also the uncertainties associated with these predictions. Furthermore, aircraft trajectories are frequently influenced by the presence of nearby aircraft through air traffic control interventions such as radar vectoring. Consequently, landing time prediction models must account for multi-agent interactions in the airspace. In this work, we propose a probabilistic multi-agent aircraft landing time prediction framework that provides the landing times of multiple aircraft as distributions. We evaluate the proposed framework using an air traffic surveillance dataset collected from the terminal airspace of the Incheon International Airport in South Korea. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves higher prediction accuracy than the baselines and quantifies the associated uncertainties of its outcomes. In addition, the model uncovered underlying patterns in air traffic control through its attention scores, thereby enhancing explainability.

When answering user queries, LLMs often retrieve knowledge from external sources stored in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) databases. These are often populated from unvetted sources, e.g. the open web, and can contain maliciously crafted data. This paper studies attacks that can manipulate the context retrieved by LLMs from such RAG databases. Prior work on such context manipulation primarily injects false or toxic content, which can often be detected by fact-checking or linguistic analysis. A more subtle threat, which we call epistemic bias injection (EBI), is where adversaries inject factually correct yet epistemically biased passages that systematically favor one side of an open-ended issue. Although linguistically coherent and truthful, such adversarial passages effectively crowd out alternative viewpoints during retrieval from the RAG and push LLM outputs towards an attack-desired stance. As a core contribution, we propose a novel characterization of the problem: We give a geometric metric that quantifies stance polarity and epistemic bias. This metric can be computed directly on embeddings of text passages. Leveraging it, we construct EBI attacks and develop a lightweight prototype defense called BiasDef for them. We evaluate them both on a comprehensive benchmark constructed from public question answering datasets. Our results show that: (1) the proposed attack induces significant stance polarity shifts, effectively evading existing retrieval-based sanitization defenses, and (2) BiasDef substantially reduces adversarial retrieval and epistemic bias in LLM's answers. Overall, this demonstrates the new threat as well as the ease of employing epistemic bias metrics for filtering in RAG-enabled LLMs.

Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require reliable uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. To address this, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty in multivariate regression based on strictly proper kernel scores. The framework provides a principled recipe for designing new uncertainty measures whose behavior, such as tail sensitivity or out-of-distribution responsiveness, is governed by the choice of the underlying kernel, while also encompassing existing measures under a joint analysis. We prove explicit correspondences between properties of the kernel and behavior of resulting uncertainty measures, yielding concrete design guidelines for practitioners. Extensive experiments across structured regression tasks, including spatial and functional domains, demonstrate effectiveness on downstream tasks such as out-of-distribution detection and active learning, and reveal that different kernel choices lead to distinct trade-offs, offering practitioners guidance for task-specific selection.

Many prediction tasks can admit multiple models that can perform almost equally well. This phenomenon can undermine interpretability and safety when competing models assign conflicting predictions to individuals. In this work, we study how arbitrariness can arise in probabilistic classification tasks as a result of an effect that we call \emph{observational multiplicity}. We discuss how this effect arises in a broad class of practical applications where we learn a classifier to predict probabilities $p_i \in [0,1]$ but are given a dataset of observations $y_i \in \{0,1\}$. We propose to evaluate the arbitrariness of individual probability predictions through the lens of \emph{regret}. We introduce a measure of regret for probabilistic classification tasks, which measures how the predictions of a model could change as a result of different training labels. We present a general-purpose method to estimate the regret in a probabilistic classification task. We use our measure to show that regret is often higher for certain groups in the dataset and discuss potential applications of regret. We demonstrate how estimating regret can be used to promote safety in real-world applications by abstention and data collection.

Accurate uncertainty quantification remains a key challenge for standard LLMs, prompting the adoption of Bayesian and ensemble-based methods. However, such methods typically necessitate computationally expensive sampling, involving multiple forward passes to effectively estimate predictive uncertainty. In this paper, we introduce an approach enabling uncertainty estimation in LLMs without incurring the heavy inference latency typically associated with sampling methods. Specifically, we distill uncertainty-aware teachers - originally requiring multiple forward passes - into single-pass students, fine-tuned using LoRA. We compare two distinct distillation strategies: one in which the student employs traditional softmax-based outputs, and another in which the student leverages Dirichlet-distributed outputs to explicitly model epistemic uncertainty via evidential learning. Empirical evaluation on classification tasks demonstrate that such students can achieve comparable predictive and uncertainty quantification performance relative to their teachers, while requiring only a single forward pass.

This paper introduces a framework for uncertainty quantification in regression models defined on metric spaces. Using a proposed notion of homoscedasticity, we define a conformal prediction algorithm that provides finite-sample marginal coverage guarantees and fast convergence rates to the oracle prediction region. For heteroscedastic settings, we introduce a kNN procedure that yields locally adaptive prediction radii in general metric spaces. Although this procedure does not provide the same finite-sample guarantees as the conformal algorithm, it is designed to improve local coverage calibration without imposing smoothing assumptions. Both procedures are compatible with a broad range of regression algorithms and scale to large datasets, allowing practitioners to use their preferred models and incorporate domain-specific knowledge. Building on the heteroscedastic $k$NN approach, we also develop a flexible sequential extension for metric-space-valued time series based on nearest-neighbor expert aggregation. We establish the consistency of the proposed estimators under minimal conditions. Finally, we illustrate the practical utility of our framework in personalized medicine applications involving random objects such as probability distributions and graph Laplacians.

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in a balanced manner. We propose CLEAR, a calibration method with two distinct parameters, $γ_1$ and $γ_2$, to combine the two uncertainty components and improve the conditional coverage of predictive intervals for regression tasks. CLEAR is compatible with any pair of aleatoric and epistemic estimators; we show how it can be used with (i) quantile regression for aleatoric uncertainty and (ii) ensembles drawn from the Predictability-Computability-Stability (PCS) framework for epistemic uncertainty. Across 17 diverse real-world datasets, CLEAR achieves an average improvement of 28.3% and 17.5% in the interval width compared to the two individually calibrated baselines while maintaining nominal coverage. Similar improvements are observed when applying CLEAR to Deep Ensembles (epistemic) and Simultaneous Quantile Regression (aleatoric). The benefits are especially evident in scenarios dominated by high aleatoric or epistemic uncertainty. Project page: https://unco3892.github.io/clear/

Urban sensor networks need forecasts that are accurate, carry useful uncertainty, and refresh fast enough to act on as new readings arrive. These goals conflict: deterministic models give no distribution, while diffusion forecasters model uncertainty but denoise from pure noise over many steps. We present Double-Diffusion, which integrates a closed-form graph-heat prior into a denoising diffusion model. The prior is a parameter-free low-pass forecast over the sensor graph, and it serves two roles: it is the residual target the model generates, and it conditions the denoiser. The reverse process therefore starts near the prior and denoises a short warm-started chain instead of synthesizing from pure noise; the name denotes this composition, a graph diffusion feeding a denoising diffusion. A compact denoiser, DD-Net, is trained as a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) in the Resfusion warm-start formulation, so generation refines the prior over a short truncated chain rather than synthesizing from pure noise; a graph-spectral read-out of the prior residual sets its switchable spatial filter per domain from training data alone. On four real-world air quality and traffic networks, Double-Diffusion attains the best CRPS of all probabilistic methods on every dataset and stays competitive in point accuracy with the strongest baselines, at a fraction of the sampling cost of from-noise diffusion. The code is available at: https://github.com/teddyicare/Double-Diffusion

Melanoma is a highly aggressive skin cancer, making early and accurate diagnosis critical. While deep learning excels in skin lesion classification, standard ``black-box" models struggle to explain diagnostic uncertainty, limiting clinical trust. This work introduces a hybrid framework combining a class-aware adversarial Variational Autoencoder and an XGBoost classifier, transcending simple binary classification by leveraging a generative latent space for interpretable decision support. Guided by adversarial training, the model learns the visual characteristics of skin lesions and projects them into a continuous latent space, ensuring that similar images are grouped closely together. Trained on this latent space, the XGBoost classifier achieves a robust AUC of 0.868, competing closely with state-of-the-art models. For borderline cases, the framework enables clinicians to leverage the latent topology through Content-Based Image Retrieval. This provides a dual benefit: it allows the clinician to visually compare an ambiguous lesion against biopsy-confirmed precedents and acts as an early warning sign since a borderline classification can indicate that a lesion shares features of both nevi and melanomas, potentially requiring close monitoring. Our approach translates algorithmic hesitation into transparent, evidence-based visual support, bridging the gap between predictive performance and clinical trust.

In many real-world applications of regression, conditional probability estimation, and uncertainty quantification, exploiting symmetries rooted in physics or geometry can dramatically improve generalization and sample efficiency. While geometric deep learning has made empirical advances by incorporating symmetry and geometry priors, less attention has been given to statistical learning guarantees. In this paper, we introduce an equivariant representation learning framework that simultaneously addresses regression, conditional probability estimation, and uncertainty quantification while providing first-of-its-kind non-asymptotic statistical learning guarantees. Grounded in operator and group representation theory, our framework approximates the spectral decomposition of the conditional expectation operator, building representations that are both equivariant and disentangled along independent symmetry quotient groups. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and real-world robotics applications confirm the potential of our approach, matching or outperforming existing equivariant baselines in regression while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates.

Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees. In practice, CP is typically applied on top of probabilistic classifiers, which are able to express aleatoric but not epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we consider the question of how to optimally employ CP on top of a more expressive formalism, namely credal sets, which can express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. More specifically, we propose probabilistic Bernoulli prediction sets (BPS) and derive a variant that achieves conditional coverage for valid credal sets while remaining minimal in expected size. We then address the more realistic scenario in which the validity of the credal sets is not guaranteed. Assuming access to calibration data with ground-truth distributions over labels, we apply conformal risk control to BPS and derive a PAC-style guarantee: with high probability over the data, the achieved conditional coverage is at least the desired level. We validate our theoretical findings empirically over various datasets.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in machine learning, yet most (axiomatic) studies of uncertainty measures focus on classification, leaving a gap in regression settings with limited formal justification and evaluations. In this work, we provide a formal way of representing uncertainty in continuous space, using a general parametric formulation, allowing for tractable analysis and evaluation of uncertainty measures. Within this framework, we propose a set of axioms that enable rigorous assessment of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty measures. Together, this allows for a theoretical examination of uncertainty measures and their corresponding properties. As a specific example, we compare the widely used entropy- and variance-based measures with respect to established predictive models and analyze their limitations and challenges in uncertainty quantification. Our work provides a principled way to understand and develop uncertainty measures in supervised regression, offering theoretical insights and practical guidelines for reliable uncertainty assessment.

The application of deep learning for partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained control is gaining increasing attention. However, existing methods rarely consider safety requirements crucial in real-world applications. To address this limitation, we propose Safe Diffusion Models for PDE Control (SafeDiffCon), which introduce the uncertainty quantile as model uncertainty quantification to achieve optimal control under safety constraints through both post-training and inference phases. Firstly, our approach post-trains a pre-trained diffusion model to generate control sequences that better satisfy safety constraints while achieving improved control objectives via a reweighted diffusion loss, which incorporates the uncertainty quantile estimated using conformal prediction. Secondly, during inference, the diffusion model dynamically adjusts both its generation process and parameters through iterative guidance and fine-tuning, conditioned on control targets while simultaneously integrating the estimated uncertainty quantile. We evaluate SafeDiffCon on three control tasks: 1D Burgers' equation, 2D incompressible fluid, and controlled nuclear fusion problem. Results demonstrate that SafeDiffCon is the only method that satisfies all safety constraints, whereas other classical and deep learning baselines fail. Furthermore, while adhering to safety constraints, SafeDiffCon achieves the best control performance. The code can be found at https://github.com/AI4Science-WestlakeU/safediffcon.

Robots in human-centered environments require accurate scene understanding to perform high-level tasks effectively. This understanding can be achieved through instance-aware semantic mapping, which involves reconstructing elements at the level of individual instances. Neural networks, the de facto solution for scene understanding, still face limitations such as overconfident incorrect predictions with out-of-distribution objects or generating inaccurate masks. Placing excessive reliance on these predictions makes the reconstruction susceptible to errors, reducing the robustness of the resulting maps and hampering robot operation. In this work, we propose Voxeland, a probabilistic framework for incrementally building instance-aware semantic maps. Inspired by the Theory of Evidence, Voxeland treats neural network predictions as \textit{subjective opinions} regarding map instances at both geometric and semantic levels. These opinions are aggregated over time to form evidence, and are formalized through a probabilistic model. This enables us to quantify uncertainty in the reconstruction process, facilitating the identification of map areas requiring improvement (e.g. reobservation or reclassification). As a possible strategy to exploit this uncertainty quantification, we incorporate a Large Vision-Language Model (LVLM) to perform semantic level disambiguation for instances with high uncertainty. Results from the standard benchmarking on the publicly available SceneNN dataset demonstrate that Voxeland outperforms state-of-the-art methods, highlighting the benefits of incorporating and leveraging both instance- and semantic-level uncertainties to enhance reconstruction robustness. This is further validated through qualitative and quantitative experiments conducted on the real-world ScanNet dataset.

Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and regulations based on incoming input data to produce the desired complex event. Complex events processing (CEP) uncertainty is critical for embedded and safety-critical systems. This paper exemplifies how we can measure uncertainty for the perception and prediction of events, encompassing embedded systems that can also be critical to safety. Then, we propose an approach (ML_CP) incorporating ML and sensitivity analysis that verifies how the output varies according to each input parameter. Furthermore, our model also measures the uncertainty associated with the predicted complex event. Therefore, we use conformal prediction to build prediction intervals, as the model itself has uncertainties, and the data has noise. Also, we tested our approach with classification (binary and multi-level) and regression problems test cases. Finally, we present and discuss our results, which are very promising within our field of research and work.

Statistical Taylor expansion is a rigorous extension of conventional Taylor expansion that replaces each precise input variable with a random variable of known distribution and sample count, then computes the mean, deviation, and a bounding reliability of every result. By tracking the propagation of input uncertainties through all intermediate steps, it renders the final result path-independent, with precise quantification of the tracking quality. This path-independence sets it fundamentally apart from conventional numerical approaches, which are path-dependent. This study presents an implementation called variance arithmetic and demonstrates its performance across diverse mathematical applications. This study also reveals the potentially substantial impact of numerical errors in library functions, the defect of applying input uncertainties as weights in conventional regression, and the modeling error of the discrete Fourier transformation.

Kant's Critique of Pure Reason, a major contribution to the history of epistemology, proposes a table of categories to elucidate the structure of the a priori principles underlying human judgment. Artificial intelligence (AI) technology claims to simulate or replicate human judgment. To evaluate this claim, it is necessary to examine whether AI judgments exhibit the essential characteristics of human judgment. This paper investigates the unexplainability of AI judgments through the lens of Kant's theory of judgment. Drawing on Kant's four logical forms - quantity, quality, relation, and modality - this study identifies what may be called AI's uncertainty, a condition in which different forms of judgment become entangled. In particular, with regard to modality, this study argues that the Softmax function forcibly reframes AI judgments as possibility judgments. Furthermore, drawing on Kant's account of definition, this paper argues that no definitive criterion exists for verifying functional implementation. Moreover, fluent linguistic behavior may create the appearance of functional implementation even when important functions remain absent.

We pose uncertainty quantification and exploration in online decision-making as a problem of training and generation from an autoregressive sequence model, an area experiencing rapid innovation. Our approach rests on viewing uncertainty as arising from missing future outcomes that could be revealed through action choices, rather than from unobservable latent parameters of the environment. This reformulation aligns naturally with modern machine learning capabilities: we can i) train generative models through next-outcome prediction rather than fit explicit priors, ii) assess uncertainty through autoregressive generation rather than sampling latent parameters from posteriors, and iii) adapt to new information by extending the sequence model's context rather than explicit posterior updating. Our main theoretical result establishes a reduction from online decision-making to offline next-outcome prediction: Bayesian regret is controlled directly by the sequence model's offline prediction loss, without requiring an explicit latent-variable posterior. Experiments, including a semi-synthetic news recommendation task, show that autoregressive generation produces calibrated epistemic uncertainty and enables effective exploration by using article text as prior information to focus exploration on resolving remaining uncertainties.

Purpose: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has gained traction in an attempt to improve the interpretability and robustness of machine learning predictions. Specifically (medical) biosignals such as electroencephalography (EEG), electrocardiography (ECG), electrooculography (EOG), and electromyography (EMG) could benefit from good UQ, since these suffer from a poor signal-to-noise ratio, and good human interpretability is pivotal for medical applications. To determine how uncertainty estimation can be used for biosignal tasks, we investigate current methods, use cases, applications, evaluations, and uncertainty measures. Methods: In this paper, we systematically review the state of the art of applying Uncertainty Quantification to Machine Learning tasks in the biosignal domain. All works from Web of Science, Scopus, IEEE XPlore and PsycINFO that discuss uncertainty in Machine Learning on one of the aforementioned biosignals is included. Results: We present various methods, shortcomings, uncertainty measures and theoretical frameworks that currently exist in this application domain based on the 53 reviewed papers and related literature. We address misconceptions in the field, provide recommendations for future work, and discuss gaps in the literature in relation to diagnostic implementations as well as control for prostheses or brain-computer interfaces. Conclusion: Overall it can be concluded that promising UQ methods are available, but that research is needed on how people and systems may interact with an uncertainty-model in a (clinical) environment.

We propose a data-driven approach to quantify the uncertainty of models constructed by kernel methods. Our approach minimizes the needed distributional assumptions, hence, instead of working with, for example, Gaussian processes or exponential families, it only requires knowledge about some mild regularity of the measurement noise, such as it is being symmetric or exchangeable. We show, by building on recent results from finite-sample system identification, that by perturbing the residuals in the gradient of the objective function, information can be extracted about the amount of uncertainty our model has. Particularly, we provide an algorithm to build exact, non-asymptotically guaranteed, distribution-free confidence regions for ideal, noise-free representations of the function we try to estimate. For the typical convex quadratic problems and symmetric noises, the regions are star convex centered around a given nominal estimate, and have efficient ellipsoidal outer approximations. Finally, we illustrate the ideas on typical kernel methods, such as LS-SVC, KRR, $\varepsilon$-SVR and kernelized LASSO.

Practical uncertainty quantification (UQ) for large language models must decide, from a single generation, whether a specific answer should be trusted. Existing methods either sample multiple generations, read only output-token probabilities, or reduce the model's internal computation to a single hidden state. We introduce ActMap, a white-box representation that compresses the generation-time hidden-state trajectory (every layer, every generated token) into a fixed $12\times32\times128$ tensor of temporal-statistic channels that preserves structure across transformer depth and pooled hidden coordinates. The map is captured during the generation pass with no measurable overhead, has a fixed shape across model depths and hidden sizes, and occupies 96 KiB: a compact artifact that can be retained for audit-relevant generations and probed directly, with occlusion analysis localizing the classifier's signal to mid-depth regions of the map. A lightweight classifier, instantiated as a compact Vision Transformer, reads an estimated correctness probability from each map in a fraction of a millisecond; capacity-matched MLPs perform comparably, indicating the representation itself carries the result. Trained and evaluated in-domain on short-answer QA, direct-answer math, and summarization factuality with three instruction-tuned 7-8B models, ActMap consistently outperforms sampling, token-probability, attention, and embedding baselines, and matches ACT-ViT, a detector trained on dense activation tensors $67\times$ larger, at essentially the same mean AUROC with lower calibration error on ten of twelve pairs. The resulting score supports abstention, routing, and selective verification from a single generation, making it a practical primitive for scalable oversight of deployed models.

Modern artificial intelligence is supported by machine learning models (e.g., foundation models) that are pretrained on a massive data corpus and then adapted to solve a variety of downstream tasks. To summarize performance across multiple tasks, evaluation metrics are often aggregated into a summary metric, e.g., average accuracy across 10 question-answering tasks. When aggregating evaluation metrics, it is useful to incorporate uncertainty in the aggregate metric in order to gain a more realistic understanding of model performance. Our objective in this work is to demonstrate how statistical methodology can be used for quantifying uncertainty in metrics that have been aggregated across multiple tasks. The methods we emphasize are bootstrapping, Bayesian hierarchical (i.e., multilevel) modeling, and the visualization of task weightings that consider standard errors. These techniques reveal insights such as the dominance of a specific model for certain types of tasks despite an overall poor performance. We use a popular ML benchmark, the Visual Task Adaptation Benchmark (VTAB), to demonstrate the usefulness of our approaches.

Trusted multi-view classification typically relies on a view-wise evidential fusion process: each view independently produces class evidence and uncertainty, and the final prediction is obtained by aggregating these independent opinions. While this design is modular and uncertainty-aware, it implicitly assumes that evidence from different views is numerically comparable. In practice, however, this assumption is fragile. Different views often differ in feature space, noise level, and semantic granularity, while independently trained branches are optimized only for prediction correctness, without any constraint enforcing cross-view consistency in evidence strength. As a result, the uncertainty used for fusion can be dominated by branch-specific scale bias rather than true sample-level reliability. To address this issue, we propose Trusted Multi-view learning with Unified Routing (TMUR), which decouples view-specific evidence extraction from fusion arbitration. TMUR uses view-private experts and one collaborative expert, and employs a unified router that observes the global multi-view context to generate sample-level expert weights. Soft load-balancing and diversity regularization further encourage balanced expert utilization and more discriminative expert specialization. We also provide theoretical analysis showing why independent evidential supervision does not identify a common cross-view evidence scale. Extensive experiments on 14 datasets and comparisons with 15 recent baselines demonstrate that TMUR consistently improves both classification performance and reliability. Code is available at https://github.com/YilinZhang107/TMUR.