Multicalibration and Calibration

We study the online binary sequential calibration problem. A recent breakthrough by \citet{dagan2024breaking} overcomes the classical $T^{2/3}$ barrier for calibration error. Building on this result, we present an efficient randomized forecaster that achieves an expected calibration error $O(T^{2/3-\varepsilon})$ for some constant $\varepsilon>0$. Our forecaster combines the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure \citep{dagan2024breaking} with an outer Blackwell-style correction layer. The \textsc{SPR-Calibration} procedure controls calibration with respect to a surrogate sequence of conditional-mean estimates, while the correction layer controls the additional error incurred when these surrogates are used to approximate the true outcomes. The analysis decomposes the total calibration error into the surrogate calibration error and the residual discrepancy between the surrogate sequence and the true outcomes. The former is bounded by the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} guarantee in \citet{dagan2024breaking}, and the latter is controlled using a quadratic potential argument together with the sparsity of the \textsc{SPR-Calibration} forecaster.

When a real-world scene is captured by a smartphone camera and viewed on its screen, the displayed image often differs noticeably from the original scene in color, brightness, and contrast. This gap persists despite substantial advances in both modern cameras and displays. A key reason is that most pipelines factor the high-dimensional capture-to-display process into two separately calibrated camera and display stages, and then connect them through low-dimensional color transforms, leading to information bottlenecks and inevitable error accumulation. To address this systemic challenge, we propose Color Pass-Through, an end-to-end learned framework that operates directly on captured images. Our key insight is to treat the camera and display as a coupled system rather than calibrating them in isolation. Coupling the camera and display yields two practical advantages: (1) it brings the entire real-world scenes to the display via end-to-end optimization, and (2) it allows efficient one-step calibration for each distinct observer via complete capture-to-display path. We validate Color Pass-Through using both digital and human observers. Compared with representative baselines, our method achieves an average gain of +2.0 points on a 5-point user study and more than 2x improvement on quantitative metrics, demonstrating improved reproduction of the perceived color of the original scene.

Post-hoc calibration is widely adopted to correct probability estimates from trained classifiers, yet most evaluations report aggregate performance without testing whether that performance holds across distinct operating conditions within a single dataset. We present a pre-registered, condition-stratified robustness analysis comparing temperature scaling (TEMP) and isotonic regression (ISO) across four controlled conditions (C1--C4). Four hypothesis groups are evaluated: discrimination deltas with Holm-corrected multiplicity control (H1), Brier score differences (H2), calibration slope outcomes (H3), and AUROC differences under best-condition setups (H4). TEMP-minus-ISO discrimination deltas remain small across all conditions (-0.0155 to 0.0139), with Holm-adjusted p-values of 0.9895 everywhere. TEMP Brier differences are consistently negative (C1: -0.0002 through C4: -0.0074), while ISO shows sign reversals. TEMP calibration slopes stay closer to unity in every condition (range 0.7597--0.9493) than ISO slopes (0.1364--0.2726). AUROC differences shift from near zero in C1 (-0.0004) to positive in C4 (0.0264). These results establish that in-dataset robustness is condition-dependent and metric-specific. No claim of external transportability is made.

We address ambivalence and hesitancy (A/H) recognition in the ABAW 2026 BAH Challenge: given a short interview video, predict whether the person shows signs of A/H. Our system combines affect-specialised text, audio, and visual representations with a small set of readable linguistic hesitation cues, fused by a reliability gate we call Affective Marker Fusion (AMF), and finished with a simple AP-weighted ensemble at a fixed decision threshold. We also introduce \emph{ASR-erased time}: speech recognisers delete fillers and hesitation pauses from the transcript, but the chunk timestamps keep the time those events took, and sixteen features built from these gaps form the strongest and most independent non-verbal channel we measured (AP $0.718$, correlation $0.11$--$0.36$ with all other members). Across controlled experiments we find three things: cross-modal conflict design does not reliably help on BAH; language is by far the strongest channel while affect-specialised audio is a useful second; and calibration matters more than architecture. Fitting ensemble weights and a threshold on the small validation split overfits: it scores $0.741$ macro-F1 on validation but only $0.690$ on the untouched test set. AP-weighting at a fixed threshold instead reaches $\mathbf{0.731}$ on test.

Raw images inherently suffer from noise due to the stochastic nature of light and sensor hardware imperfections. As real photon counts fall, the ratio of this noise to the signal degrades; consequently, for low-light conditions, robust denoising is especially vital for high-quality results. While recent data-driven methods achieve strong performance, they typically rely on large-scale noisy-clean image pairs that are costly and difficult to collect. Alternatively, parametric noise models can generate synthetic training data, but this necessitates precise camera calibration, which is often impractical for unknown devices. In this work, we propose a camera-agnostic, calibration-free paradigm for low-light raw denoising. We identify that color bias from black-level error is a primary source of performance degradation and causes severe color shifts. To mitigate this, we introduce a bias estimator network that predicts the black-level error as a global feature of the noisy input. We evaluate our approach across the ELD, SID, and LRID datasets, demonstrating superior performance among blind denoisers, particularly in terms of color correction. In many cases, we are competitive with-or can even surpass-methods with stronger supervision. Furthermore, we reveal that the widely used SIDD dataset contains significant color bias in its ground-truth images, which yields unrealistic color reproduction in trained models. We introduce a new ground-truth extraction framework to resolve this issue and provide a benchmark of existing methods on the corrected dataset.

Multi-agent ensembling multiplies active parameters and inference cost without answering three basic questions: which agents to consult, how deeply a query should traverse a hierarchy of agents, and when inter-agent communication is worth its cost. We present GRADE (Gated Routing and Adaptive Depth for Efficient Reasoning), a hierarchical multi-agent system in which four lightweight learned gates jointly govern agent selection, hierarchy depth, inter-agent communication, and branch pruning. Training uses CoGRPO (Collaborative Group-Relative Policy Optimization), a novel critic-free recipe that adapts GRPO to multi-agent hierarchies and assigns a shared advantage signal to every gate and agent that participated in a rollout. Agent models are drawn from a hot-swappable Expert Registry; per-agent calibration maps allow experts to be replaced at inference time without retraining. At $\sim$17B average active parameters, GRADE outperforms all baselines on GSM8K, MMLUPro, and GPQA, surpassing the strongest baseline by 4.8 points on MMLUPro at half the active compute. On AIME-2025, where model depth dominates, GRADE remains competitive to existing frameworks. Ablations isolate the hierarchy and masked cross-attention as the largest contributors to accuracy, and show that per-agent calibration is necessary for safe hot-swapping.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications where distribution shift is un-avoidable. However, how such shifts affect model calibration, defined as the agreement between predictive confidence and actual accuracy, remains poorly understood, and existing graph calibration methods typically rely on labeled validation data from the deployment distribution. In this work, I present the first closed-form theoretical characterization of GNN calibration under distribution shift. I show that calibration is governed by a single scalar quantity that explicitly depends on structural changes between the source and target graphs, as well as feature quality. This characterization precisely identifies when a model becomes over-confident, under-confident, or remains calibrated, and directly yields the optimal temperature scaling strategy. I further extend the analysis to graph convolutional networks with symmetric normalization, multi-class classification, and covariate shift, and derive a theoretical upper bound on the expected calibration error. My analysis also reveals that, under homogeneous distribution shift, a single global temperature is theoretically optimal, providing a principled explanation for why more complex node-wise recalibration methods offer no additional benefit. Building on these theoretical insights, I propose STAC, a source-free, label-free calibration method. Experiments on synthetic benchmarks demonstrate substantial calibration improvements, while evaluations on five real-world graph datasets show that reliable calibration without target labels remains challenging despite the strong predictive power of the theory.

Greenhouse reinforcement learning can test climate-control ideas at a speed and scale that is difficult to achieve with crop experiments alone. For smart-greenhouse control, however, a single simulator return is not enough: a grower or control engineer also needs to know when the policy heats, enriches CO2, vents, manages humidity, deploys screens, or uses lamps.We propose a reproducible calibration-first reward audit framework that keeps named greenhouse-control reward components comparable across simulator training, facility-adapted rollouts, logged Autonomous Greenhouse Challenge records, and actuator-rule distillation. In GreenLight-Gym, the framework decomposes the scalar reward into conditional temperature, CO2, humidity and vapor-pressure-deficit, screen, and actuation-proxy terms; adapts GreenLight to the second Autonomous Greenhouse Challenge logged climate traces; and scores the same components on logged greenhouse data.

Cervical cytology classification models are typically evaluated on curated, class-balanced benchmarks, but real-world liquid-based cytology (LBC) collections are often small and class-imbalanced. This paper presents a class-imbalance-aware and calibration-aware ensemble classification study on the Mendeley LBC dataset, using its native four-class Bethesda taxonomy (NILM, LSIL, HSIL, SCC) rather than a collapsed binary formulation. Three lightweight architectures (Swin-Tiny, TinyViT-5M, DenseNet121) are trained directly on Mendeley LBC using weighted random sampling to counteract class imbalance, and compared against two soft-voting ensembles (Hybrid-2, Hybrid-3). Post-hoc temperature scaling is fit on a held-out calibration subset carved out of the training portion of each cross-validation fold, distinct from both the training data used to fit model weights and the evaluation fold used for final metrics, avoiding the optimistic calibration estimates that result when the same data is used for both purposes. Calibration substantially reduces expected calibration error, Brier score, and negative log-likelihood for every model and ensemble configuration tested, while discrimination metrics (accuracy, macro-F1, macro-AUROC) remain essentially unchanged. Ensemble size shows no consistent additional reliability benefit over the best individual model once all configurations are properly calibrated. Confusion matrices show that all classification errors, across every configuration, are confined to the boundary between high-grade lesions (HSIL) and carcinoma (SCC); no errors involve the negative (NILM) or low-grade (LSIL) categories. These results suggest that, for this dataset, calibration is the dominant lever for reliability, not ensemble size, though this conclusion should be read in light of the dataset's modest size.

A central challenge in image-goal UAV navigation under Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) denial is estimating metric distance and heading between current and goal views. Dense pairwise geometry models capture relative scene structure, but without a calibrated metric scale, they cannot directly provide reliable distance estimates for navigation. Although global scale calibration corrects the dominant scale bias, the remaining errors vary systematically with distance. In this paper, Range-Aware Scale Recovery (RASR) is proposed, which complements global scale calibration with range-aware residual correction. RASR encodes pairwise geometry extracted by a frozen Matching And Stereo 3D Reconstruction (MASt3R) backbone as a compact descriptor and separates the scale-recovery core from task-specific command calibration. On the official online evaluation of the UAVs in Multimedia 2026 PairUAV challenge, RASR achieved a total error of 0.003189, achieving a lower total error than global scale calibration alone. The results demonstrate that range-aware residual correction improves metric distance estimation beyond global scale calibration. Code and materials are available at https://github.com/lht-research/rasr-pairuav.

Teleoperation is a key interface for controlling dexterous robotic hands and collecting demonstrations for imitation learning. Its effectiveness largely depends on kinematic retargeting, which maps operator hand motions to feasible and intuitive robot hand motions. Existing methods often require hand-crafted objectives, precise calibration, or global shape matching between human and robot hand spaces, making them sensitive to hand-specific tuning and less reliable across different dexterous hands. We propose AnyDexRT, a calibration-free retargeting method for intuitive dexterous teleoperation across human-like dexterous hands. AnyDexRT combines self-supervised fingertip correspondence learning with few-shot human guidance to anchor the mapping in task-relevant regions, and further refines pinch-related poses using a contact classifier. Experiments on diverse dexterous hands and real-world teleoperation tasks show that AnyDexRT improves retargeting quality, reduces manual tuning, and provides more intuitive and efficient control than prior retargeting methods. Project website: https://chenxi-wang.github.io/projects/anydexrt

Newly developed items must ordinarily be field tested before their psychometric properties are known, creating a cold start problem for item calibration. Predicting item parameters from features is a long standing measurement problem dating back to the Linear Logistic Test Model; modern text embeddings now automate the design matrices traditionally specified by hand. We propose an evaluation framework combining regularized regression on item text embeddings, repeated cross validated R squared reported with its resampling standard deviation, and two performance upper bounds: a reliability ceiling derived from parameter standard errors, and a design ceiling derived from simulation based power calibration. Applying this framework to a mathematics item bank (EEDI) and a medical licensure benchmark (BEA 2024), we find that item difficulty is highly predictable from text (repeated cross validated R squared = 0.53, or about 57% of its reliability ceiling), whereas discrimination and pseudo guessing appear less predictable. However, evaluating these results against our ceilings reveals that this apparent hierarchy stems from target reliability rather than text signal strength: text uniformly recovers 57 to 63% of the reliable variance across difficulty targets, whereas the 3PL pseudo guessing parameter has a reliability ceiling near zero, making it an unviable target at current precision. On BEA, embedding based regression matches leaderboard RMSE despite explaining almost no variance, highlighting the critical need for scale free metrics and explicit ceilings in benchmarking. Finally, we show that a single train and test split can inflate apparent accuracy by 0.1 to 0.15 in R squared, underscoring the necessity of repeated cross validation for calibration support applications and future benchmark construction.

Reliable calibration of multi-fisheye camera systems remains challenging as rig size, camera arrangement diversity, and field of view increase. Existing pipelines can jointly optimize intrinsics, extrinsics, and target poses, but their success still depends heavily on empirical capture rules and the quality of the observations supplied to the solver. This paper studies this dependency through a failure-oriented analysis. We reveal that calibration failures are not sufficiently explained by detector recall loss or global image-plane distribution imbalance. Instead, the dominant failure factor lies in intrinsic initialization: observations with limited radial span couple focal scale with fisheye projection-shape parameters, producing ill-conditioned updates. Guided by this insight, we propose CO-Calib, a plug-in calibration-data construction framework that combines a robust learning-based target detector with an error-analysis-guided frame selector. CO-Calib constructs initialization-friendly anchors, co-visible multi-camera constraints, and coverage-completion frames without changing the existing calibration workflow or optimization backend. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real multi-fisheye systems demonstrate that CO-Calib improves the overall success rate from 68.1% to 99.3%, increases extrinsic accuracy, and augments real-world calibration stability. The source code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/HKUST-Aerial-Robotics/CO-Calib.

Streaming 3D reconstruction relies on a compact recurrent scene state to process long image streams in linear time and bounded memory. However, repeated updates can gradually corrupt this state, causing reliable historical information to be overwritten by noisy or ambiguous observations. We introduce ReCal3R, a reliability-calibrated learning rate method for recurrent 3D reconstruction. Instead of directly applying a candidate learning rate, our method estimates state token reliability from the maintained scene state and uses it to calibrate a candidate learning rate derived from token alignment, state reconstruction residual, and recent update pressure. The resulting token-wise learning rate interpolates between a conservative base rate and the candidate rate, suppressing aggressive updates on unreliable tokens while preserving adaptation to informative frames. Applied to CUT3R as a training-free calibration rule, ReCal3R reaches strong performance on long sequences in pose, depth, and reconstruction quality, including a 3.7$\times$ reduction in ATE, with comparable runtime and memory. Code is available at: https://github.com/Powertony102/ReCal3R.

Detection models running in adversarial environments face a malicious distribution that drifts rapidly while the benign distribution stays comparatively stable, so teams retrain and redeploy constantly to stay ahead of new threats. Retraining tends to change the output prediction scores, which breaks downstream users of the model. For these security-oriented models we need consistent false-positive rate (FPR) across all output values, whereas standard probability-calibration methods target class probability rather than an FPR contract. We introduce a method built on top of existing calibration primitives that targets the whole FPR curve, giving scores a consistent FPR meaning across deployments. On one held-out split, the observed relative FPR error was at most 2.3% from 10% down to 0.1% FPR and 7.2% at 0.01% FPR. The shipped artifact remains under 200 KB in measurements across calibration sets from 1K to 10M benign samples.

Calibrating a superconducting transmon chip is a sequential decision problem under noise, drift, and a finite budget: an expert must choose experiments, read ambiguous plots, judge fit quality, and revise stale beliefs as the chip drifts. We study whether a vision-language agent can close this loop and specialize itself to one physical device without weight updates, via three co-designed artifacts. The first is a physics-grounded simulation environment for transmon chips: calibration observables derive from circuit-quantized parameters via scqubits, with realistic flux-line distortion, wall-time-scaled and mid-scan drift, and gate leakage, concerns a toy simulator would omit; each tool call advances a modeled clock so drift accrues by wall time, not call count. The second is a vision-language agent that runs the loop end to end, calling tools, reading plots, maintaining a structured notebook, and submitting parameters without hidden truth, scored against hidden parameters and gate fidelities measured on the device. The third is gradient-free online adaptation: a reflector reads truth-free anomaly signatures from past attempts and grows a small, human-readable device note appended to the prompt, admitted by a paired-snapshot accept gate that isolates strategy improvement from drift. On a hard-tier chip under budget pressure, six iterations raised the worst-case CZ fidelity from 0.678 to 0.787 and cut its variance, reproducing at four-qubit scale; a single accepted note raised CZ fidelity from 0.678 to 0.913 on its paired snapshot. A planted-fault study confirms the note is causal, diagnosing a hardware fault truth-free, its principal value raising the failure floor and cutting variance. The agent, scoring, and reward transfer to real hardware via a measurement-backend swap; only the accept gate is a simulation affordance, reducing to a held-out-slice or repeat-and-average form.

Reliable confidence estimates are essential in semantic segmentation, yet modern models often remain miscalibrated. We investigate two overlooked issues in post-hoc calibration. First, adding a constant to all logits leaves softmax probabilities unchanged, but several standard calibrators depend on this arbitrary offset. In segmentation, this offset can vary across pixels or voxels, introducing spatially varying representation dependence. We characterize translation-invariant (TI) calibrators and construct TI counterparts of shift-sensitive methods. Second, calibrating with cross-entropy can degrade segmentation quality due to mismatched training and calibration objectives and limited calibration data. We investigate decision-preserving calibration under argmax- and order-preservation constraints. Since these constraints restrict affine softmax calibrators to temperature scaling, we introduce more expressive class-conditional affine calibrators that preserve decisions. Across natural-image and medical segmentation benchmarks, including corruption-based covariate shift, TI variants generally improve calibration, while decision-preserving variants prevent segmentation degradation by construction and retain strong calibration performance. Our findings provide practical design principles for post-hoc calibration in semantic segmentation.

Open-vocabulary object detection aims to localize and classify objects beyond the fixed set of categories seen dur ing training. Recent open-vocabulary object detection methods improve localization and classification for unseen categories by leveraging a frozen VLM as a detector backbone. However, VLM classification score lacks recognizing position and scale of the object in an image. We observe that pretrained VLMs en able to classify foreground and background regions. According to this observation, we propose a simple inference-time Pro posal Calibration (ProCal) that improves localization quality of the classification score. ProCal computes a proposal prior by combining two scores: localization-aware foreground score and background-aware suppression score. Localization-aware foreground score captures whether a proposal contains an object area. Background-aware suppression score measures the extent to which the proposal resembles background. We analyze that ProCal suppresses false novel activation on background proposals and consistently ranks true novel proposals above background and partial novel proposals. Applied to CLIPSelf ViT-L/14, ProCal improves APr +2.5 on OV-LVIS. The analyses show that proposal-level localization-aware reranking effects to mitigate ranking miscalibration for novel objects.

Language models increasingly write probabilistic programs (in NumPyro, Stan, or Pyro), but a program that compiles, runs, and passes every unit test can still be \emph{statistically} wrong -- a Gaussian likelihood for heavy-tailed data, a Poisson for over-dispersed counts, an invalid prior support, or a pathological parameterization. The right verifier is therefore not a test suite but the Bayesian workflow itself: posterior predictive checks, simulation-based calibration, sampler diagnostics ($\hat R$, divergences, ESS), and held-out predictive density. We study this calibration oracle along three axes. \textbf{Detection:} on a benchmark of $14$ misspecification types across $10$ model families ($200$ instances), it flags the bug with AUC $0.97$ ($88\%$ at $2\%$ FPR \emph{when handed the correct reference program, an upper bound}) -- and a fully \emph{reference-free} version that uses no correct program reaches $62$--$78\%$ (the upper figure from a small automated model search), versus $0\%$ for a unit-test oracle. \textbf{Repair:} used as feedback in an LLM repair loop across fifteen models, calibration significantly outperforms unit-test feedback -- which is itself \emph{significantly worse than no feedback at all}, a passing test inducing false confidence that suppresses repair -- and improves over no feedback on strong-but-unsaturated models (GPT-5.1 $33{\to}92\%$, Claude $75{\to}100\%$; paired McNemar, $n{=}228$). \textbf{Reality:} on programs LLMs write from scratch for neutral briefs, $15$--$47\%$ of runnable ones are statistically misspecified (unit tests catch none), and calibration-guided repair significantly beats LLM-as-judge review, a Bayesian-workflow checklist, and data-summary self-debug. Across all three, the lesson is the same: for probabilistic programs, correctness is calibration, not compilation.

AI-assisted research has entered a stage in which the central question is not only whether systems can generate hypotheses, run experiments, or produce manuscripts, but whether their scientific claims are calibrated to the evidence that supports them. This Perspective-style paper develops a conceptual and methodological framework for evidence-licensed claims in AI-assisted research. Motivated by representative routes including specialized scientific foundation models, LLM research assistants, multi-agent co-scientists, AI Scientist pipelines, mathematical discovery agents, and self-driving laboratories, it represents AI-assisted research as five operators: hypothesis generation, model-mediated consequence derivation, external validation, belief update, and claim calibration. The central claim is that calibration is not merely cautious wording but a mechanism for managing scientific assertion rights: evidence licenses some forms of speech and withholds others. The paper distinguishes linguistic, consequence-based, interventional, and evidence-licensed semantics; defines the claim-evidence gap and epistemic debt; and treats minimal structural reconstruction across heterogeneous outputs as an upward form of claim calibration. AISim-Cal is included as an illustrative synthetic dynamics exercise, not as an empirical forecast or benchmark. The resulting principles are: no claim without license, validation does not determine claim level, and automation amplifies the need for calibration. Reliable AI-assisted research is therefore evaluated as a loop that generates hypotheses, derives testable consequences, accepts independent adjudication, updates beliefs, and outputs only evidence-licensed claims.

Cellular vehicle-to-everything (C-V2X) enables cooperative perception, prediction, and planning beyond the field of view of individual agents. However, existing datasets often overlook the complexities of real-world deployment, such as limited communication bandwidth and its dynamics, heterogeneous sensing modalities, and scalability beyond a single cooperative partner. In this paper, we introduce CooperScene, a high-fidelity cooperative autonomy dataset with real-world C-V2X communication characterization. The dataset is organized into diverse scenes, including intersections, highway ramps, and parking lots. These scenes involve three connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and one infrastructure roadside unit (RSU), all equipped with multi-modal sensors and commercial off-the-shelf C-V2X communication radios. All scenes are annotated with globally consistent 3D labels at 10 Hz, totaling 344K objects across 59K frames, underpinned by tight sensor- and agent-synchronization, centimeter-level localization and spatial alignment, precise cross-modality calibration, and 3GPP-standard-compliant C-V2X communication. CooperScene establishes a rigorous benchmark for evaluating multi-agent scaling and actual performance in real-world deployable settings. Project website for data and benchmark: https://cisl.ucr.edu/CooperScene

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming software development, yet their use in security-critical contexts raises a key question: do models know when their generated code is insecure? This property, known as calibration, measures whether a model's confidence aligns with the true correctness of its outputs. We present the first large-scale empirical study of security calibration in LLM-generated code. We evaluate GPT-4o-mini, Gemini-2.0-Flash, and Qwen3-Coder-Next across multiple temperature settings on two complementary benchmarks: self-contained security tasks and multi-language repository-level contexts. Our results suggest that overconfidence is prevalent across the evaluated LLMs. Functional calibration is consistently worse than security calibration, suggesting that models estimate security outcomes more reliably than functional correctness, potentially because functional correctness depends on complex execution behavior. We also examine whether calibration-guided automated repair can help remediate vulnerabilities in LLM-generated code, finding only limited improvements while frequently introducing functional regressions. Moreover, we study different mitigation strategies for reducing False Trust, where models assign high confidence to vulnerable code. The results show that although architectural gating improves calibration on controlled benchmarks, calibration deteriorates in realistic repository-level settings, increasing the risk of high-confidence vulnerable outputs.

Accurate extrinsic calibration of inertial sensors, such as Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs) and cameras is crucial for trajectory estimation of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). While numerous calibration methods have been proposed, these techniques often rely on specialized equipment, planar targets, and an initial estimate of the calibration parameters. In this research, we propose a targetless calibration method designed for UAVs equipped with IMUs and RGB-Depth (RGB-D) cameras. Our approach leverages deep-learning-based floor-segmentation to extract ground points from the depth channel of RGB-D images. Subsequently, the normal vector to these points is estimated. The known orientation of the normal to the floor segment and the gravity vector sensed in the accelerometer's frame are utilized in a robust estimation approach to estimate the extrinsic calibration parameters. We illustrate that the developed method outperforms MATLAB's Toolboxes and exhibits similar performance to Kalibr without the use of specialized checkerboard targets.

Calibration evaluates whether a model confidence aligns with its empirical accuracy. Existing studies often compare the calibration of different large language models using global calibration metrics such as Expected Calibration Error and Brier Score. We begin by showing, both theoretically and empirically, that such comparisons are confounded by differences in model accuracy. For fairer cross-model comparison, we then propose ACE, an accuracy-controlled evaluation framework with three complementary views: Instance-Aligned, Distribution-Aligned, and Candidate-Aligned calibration. Across multiple benchmarks, model families, and confidence elicitation methods, we use ACE to study two practically important comparison axes, small versus large models and thinking versus non-thinking models. We find that many previously reported calibration advantages under raw global metrics weaken substantially after accuracy control. We also find that ranking reversal is frequent: models favored by raw metrics often cease to be favored once accuracy is controlled. Our results show that raw global calibration metrics are not robust for cross-model comparison, and that fair calibration comparison requires accuracy-aware evaluation.

Quantum computing provides a powerful paradigm for representing and transforming high-dimensional information through superposition, entanglement, and measurement-induced nonlinear features. While current quantum hardware is not yet practical for direct large-scale vision-language model (VLM) inference, simulated quantum computation can be used during model construction to generate structured parameters for compact classical AI systems. We build RiverONE, a lightweight vision-language model for quantum calibration plot understanding, using simulated quantum computation. It employs a specialized visual encoder and an InternVL-based language backbone. To compensate for compression-induced information loss, we introduce quantum-generated parameters, which are materialized as classical tensors after training. This allows RiverONE to run entirely on classical GPUs at inference time, with no quantum hardware or runtime quantum simulation. With approximately 1.9 billion parameters, RiverONE achieves at least 95% of the performance of NVIDIA Ising Calibration 1 on quantum calibration plot understanding tasks while using less than 10% of its parameter count. These results suggest that simulated quantum computation can serve as a practical construction-stage mechanism for building lightweight, knowledge-intensive scientific VLMs. Our code is available at https://github.com/THeWakeSystems/RiverOne.

Modern deepfake detectors are rarely consumed as bare classifiers. In moderation, provenance, and verification pipelines their output probability is read as a degree of trust, so its calibration matters as much as raw accuracy. We reframe deepfake detection as a calibrated, self-auditing trust instrument, the Calibrated Deepfake Trust Score (CDTS), and identify what governs its trustworthiness. Our central finding is a competence-calibration coupling: the calibration of the trust score degrades as the detector's discriminative competence falls. We establish it across 32 configurations (pooled Pearson r = -0.81), demonstrate it within a single dataset, reinforce it by inducing low competence directly, and replicate it on a fourth held-out dataset the detectors never trained on. It holds across three architecturally distinct detectors, two convolutional networks and a CLIP vision transformer (r = -0.88, -0.83, -0.86). The result is also deployable: a single calibrator frozen on in-domain data fails on exactly the low-competence generators the coupling flags (its error tracks competence at r = -0.98), and competence is estimable without labels, so a label-free monitor flags calibration risk on unseen generators and routing source-batches on a reference-free competence estimate lowers overall AURC and improves the low-to-mid coverage operating region relative to confidence-based routing. The same competence factor also drives calibration inequity across demographic subgroups (distinct from accuracy inequity) and explanation faithfulness. We therefore argue that detector trustworthiness is organized by competence as a shared driver, that competence is the right quantity to estimate and condition on, and that trust scoring must be competence-aware. We offer the CDTS wrapper as the mechanism, and report openly where the unification is tight and where it is architecture-specific.

Conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, but a pooled calibration quantile can hide systematic undercoverage across heterogeneous regions of the feature space. We introduce Self-Organized Conformal Prediction (SOCP), a calibration scheme that discovers input-space groups with an unsupervised Self-Organizing Map (SOM) trained without calibration labels. At prediction time, the query's best-matching unit (BMU) draws a calibration buffer from one cell, a fixed grid neighborhood, or a prototype-based enlargement. When fixed neighborhoods are too sparse, Regime 3 adds cells by prototype distance, using a global budget selected from training-cell occupancies and the planned calibration size before any calibration score is observed. The predictor and nonconformity score remain unchanged. Cell-only retrieval has exact cell-conditional validity, and each fixed union of cells has exact retrieved-set validity. Interpreting a neighborhood threshold at its central cell incurs an explicit Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) bias term. Across ten regression and classification benchmarks, SOCP reduces the weighted coverage gap relative to pooled split conformal prediction on nine datasets. The mean relative change is $-14.3\%$, at a mean output-size change of $+3.0\%$. Under fixed-neighborhood retrieval, SO composition lowers the ten-seed mean WCovGap in $43$ of the $50$ dataset-score comparisons, while SO-SCP lowers it on average over paired seeds for every dataset at all three tested external partition granularities. These results provide a concise route to group-local calibration without supervised partitions or predictor retraining with a diagnostic toolkit, while keeping the cost and limits of locality explicit.

Remote sensing visual grounding (RSVG) aims to locate specific objects in high-resolution RS imagery using free-form natural language descriptions. While recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) show great potential for such open-vocabulary RSVG, their training-free adaptation is hindered by the modality gap between abstract linguistic semantics and fine-grained visual cues. In cluttered RS scenes, this gap inevitably causes severe localization drift. To bridge this gap, we propose Exemplar-driven Calibrated Refinement (ExACT), a novel training-free framework driven by a one-shot visual prompting mechanism to explicitly provide discriminative structural guidance for precise pixel-level localization. Specifically, we propose a Vision Exemplar-based Calibrator (VEC) that extracts fine-grained visual correspondences from the given exemplar to rectify the rough cross-modal priors from frozen MLLMs, effectively suppressing background artifacts and accurately outlining target boundaries. Subsequently, a Structure-Aware Refiner (SAR) employs an iterative merge-and-select clustering strategy to consolidate the calibrated priors into high-quality positive and negative geometric prompts. These prompts then guide the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to achieve precise pixel-level predictions. Extensive experiments confirm the superiority of ExACT over existing training-free and weakly-supervised methods.

Predicting student performance and characterizing metacognitive calibration are essential for personalization in intelligent tutoring systems. Prior research treats performance prediction, calibration error calculation, and variance decomposition as separate pipelines, preventing unified interpretation. I propose the Unified Behavioral Prediction and Calibration Analysis Pipeline (UBP-CAP), an integrated framework processing student pre-execution behavioral telemetry through three linked modules: (1) a LightGBM classifier with SHAP for binary correctness prediction, (2) formal calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, and Brier score decomposition) to evaluate metacognitive alignment, and (3) a crossed Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Model (GLMM) for decomposing calibration deviations. I introduce the Predictive-Explanatory Divergence Index (PEDI), which quantifies structural divergence between predictive and explanatory feature profiles. Evaluated on 1,195 interaction records (27 students, 45 tasks), Logistic Regression achieves AUC-ROC = 0.903, outperforming LightGBM (0.878). Student naive ECE (0.109) significantly exceeds model ECE (0.068), confirming systematic miscalibration. The crossed GLMM yields ICCStudent = 0.123, showing calibration is situational rather than dispositional. PEDIcos = 0.081 (p = 0.327) indicates structural alignment between prediction and explanation on shared behavioral features.

Predicting the aerodynamic performance (e.g. lift, drag, and moment coefficients) of an aircraft is challenging -- computational models are biased and direct simulations are prohibitive. A pragmatic way to overcome this limitation is by calibrating low-fidelity computational predictions with experimental measurements. This, however, requires calibrating against \emph{sparse} measurements contaminated with \emph{uncertainty} in both the control inputs and the measured aerodynamic response. We develop a methodology to address this problem based on Gaussian process surrogates and the classical Kennedy-O'Hagan calibration. A surrogate model learned on abundant-but-cheap low-fidelity data is calibrated with a sparse set of measurement data. Crucialy, we develop a Bayesian latent Gaussian process based approach that marginalizes the calibrated surrogate model over the input uncertainty, while also matching the marginal mean and variance of the measured output uncertainty. Once calibrated, our surrogate model predicts the uncertainty in aerodynamic coefficients with very high accuracy, including at extrapolative input settings. We validate our calibrated surrogate model predictions against measurement data with \emph{true} uncertainty intervals to demonstrate that the model places $94.2-95.8\%$ of its predictive samples inside the released $95\%$ truth intervals, with endpoint cumulative probabilities very close to the nominal 0.025 and 0.975 levels.

When a large language model (LLM) codes a construct in text as a human annotator would, that agreement makes the LLM a reliable coder. Yet reliability leaves construct validity untouched. The instrument may be theory-naive, reaching the code through a correlate that meets none of the demands the construct's theory makes, and no current method tells that apart from genuine measurement. We propose grain calibration as a method that closes the gap. It decomposes a construct into clause-level components, tests each against the text with extractive evidence, and combines the results through an explicit, theory-derived rule. Because the rule is stated rather than lodged in one opaque pass, its structure is evidence about the process rather than the output. It shows which components settled a code, and, when the code is wrong, whether a component was missed or an adjacent construct mistaken for it. Validation shifts from scoring an instrument's outputs against an annotator to showing that the instrument runs on the construct its theory specifies.

Accurate assessment of sweetness is essential for quality control in agriculture, yet conventional methods rely on destructive sampling and are difficult to scale. This thesis presents a robotic arm-based spectral sensing system for strawberry detection, localization, approach, and non-destructive sweetness estimation. The system integrates perception, calibration, and robotic control in a closed-loop pipeline. A YOLOv11s detector is adopted for real-time strawberry detection, while RGB-ToF calibration and mask-to-depth alignment are used to obtain geometrically consistent target localization. A custom eye-in-hand hand-eye calibration workflow is developed to estimate the rigid transform between gripper_link and cam_front, enabling reliable transformation of fruit targets into the robot base frame. Based on these estimates, the robot executes a waypoint-based search and an incremental closed-loop approach strategy to position the sensor at optimal working distance for sweetness sensing. Experimental results show strong end-to-end performance (88.10% success over 42 trials), with robust detection (95.24%) and successful approach execution once a target is detected (100% conditional success). Hand-eye calibration comparisons indicate that although Andreff yields the smallest translation norm in single-run results, the Park method provides better cross-sample consistency and therefore more stable downstream robot behavior. The residual failures are concentrated in the sensing stage, especially valid-region extraction for sweetness estimation under difficult depth/reflectance conditions. Overall, this work demonstrates the feasibility of integrating RGB-ToF perception, robotic manipulation, and non-destructive sensing for practical strawberry quality assessment, and provides a scalable baseline for future integration of learning-based policies such as Vision-Language-Action models.

Video Diffusion Models (VDMs) is constrained by immense computational costs. While offline calibration-based acceleration suffers from calibration data dependency, prohibitive calibration duration, and susceptibility to distribution shifts, offline calibration-free methods eliminate these hurdles. However, since they rely on instantaneous zero-order approximations where the mapping between input and output differences varies in real-time, they are susceptible to observational noise and ignore the intrinsic momentum within the diffusion trajectory. In this paper, we propose NaviCache, a plug-and-play test-time self-calibration method re-conceptualizing feature evolution as an Inertial Navigation System (INS) problem. NaviCache bridges the fundamental domain gap and the non-stationary nature of diffusion by modeling the relative coupling between input and output variations. We introduce a dual-state estimation architecture that adaptively tracks the feature change ratio and its latent drift, initialized via a specialized Initial Alignment phase. By integrating a time-dependent noise schedule with an uncertainty-aware Measurement Update mechanism, NaviCache provides a theoretically grounded mechanism for error-bounded computation skipping. Extensive experiments on the HunyuanVideo, Wan, and Open-Sora series demonstrate that NaviCache exhibits more accurate error judgment for computation skipping and achieves outstanding comprehensive performance.

Implicit neural representation (INR) has emerged as a powerful prior for multi-dimensional data (e.g., multispectral images and videos). However, most INR methods employing periodic activation functions (e.g., Sine) predominantly rely on function composition. This mechanism introduces optimization instability as network depth increases, thereby limiting their performance. Meanwhile, these methods fail to incorporate proper physical priors to effectively alleviate spectrum bias. To address these issues, inspired by the commonalities between deep periodic networks and generalized Fourier series, we propose a novel Calibrated Harmonic Overlaid Implicit Neural Representation (CHOIR). Specifically, we utilize Coordinated Harmonic Superposition (CHS) to replace the conventional function composition used in most INRs, thereby ensuring optimization stability when scaling network depth. Furthermore, we introduce a Perceptual Spectrum Calibration (PSC) to mitigate spectrum bias. This calibration embeds the ubiquitous power-law spectrum prior of natural images and adjusts the globally fixed spectrum towards a physically plausible log-uniform distribution. Extensive experiments on various multidimensional data recovery problems demonstrate that our method achieves superior performance over state-of-the-art approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/chorl0229/CHOIR.

Current LLM evaluation relies on two complementary but often disconnected signals: static benchmarks with objective correctness labels and arena-style preference data that better reflect open-ended user interactions. We introduce DualEval, a latent model-item calibration framework that represents models and evaluation items in a shared space, jointly estimating model ability together with item difficulty and sharpness. We apply DualEval across four domains: coding, math, miscellaneous domain-knowledge tasks, and generic everyday user queries. Our evaluation uses 18 frontier LLMs, static benchmark labels, and reward-model scores validated against held-out human preferences for open-ended model responses. Empirically, our framework produces reliable and balanced model rankings, and its learned item-level profiles support downstream applications such as benchmark compression for sample-efficient evaluation and anomaly detection for contamination or outlier analysis. Overall, DualEval unifies static and arena-style evaluation through joint model-item calibration, producing model rankings and item-level diagnostics that support more sample-efficient, interpretable, and auditable evaluation pipelines.

How can we generate high-quality relevance annotations at scale without the cost and delays of human labeling? Relevance annotations are the backbone of search ranking systems which is needed for training data preparation, NDCG evaluation, and root cause analysis. However, human annotation is slow and off-the-shelf LLMs suffer from accuracy on domain-specific tasks. We propose a calibrated model cascade, a systematic approach for cost-efficient offline relevance annotation by routing queries through progressively larger fine-tuned classifiers. Our central insight is that accuracy and cost are orthogonal optimizations: domain-specific fine-tuning drives accuracy, cascading drives cost, and per-class isotonic calibration adds a small but reliable gain on top. Our contribution is threefold: (a) we decompose the gains and show that fine-tuning contributes 20 accuracy points while cascading is approximately accuracy-neutral but halves compute cost, (b) we introduce per-class isotonic calibration as one component of the cascade, contributing a small but statistically significant gain (+0.6 points over the strongest calibration baseline), and (c) we validate the system in production across six offline use cases, processing 150M+ annotations and enabling faster experimentation cycles. Our work is a building block for scalable, high-quality offline annotation pipelines in search and advertising systems.

Large Audio-Language Models (LALMs) have been widely used as judge models for the automatic evaluation of generated speech. However, prior approaches predominantly focus on holistic naturalness, leaving fine-grained paralinguistic distinctions underexplored. We introduce ParaPairAudioBench, a pairwise benchmark of 5,175 audio pairs across five paralinguistic dimensions: Style, Rate, Emphasis, Age, and Gender. Our experiments show that current LALM judges still lag behind human judgments by 32%p on average and exhibit severe calibration failures, particularly in Tie cases where the correct decision is to abstain. To further analyze lexical versus acoustic reliance, the benchmark includes both same-transcript and cross-transcript conditions. ParaPairAudioBench enables multi-dimensional, calibration-aware assessment of the reliability of LALM-as-a-Judge for paralinguistic speech evaluation.

ALS boresight calibration has relied for two decades on dedicated flight patterns over structured scenes containing planar surfaces of varied aspect and slope. While reliable, this approach imposes constraints on the scene content and operations, which limits its applicability to boresight recovery within routine mapping missions. We present a practical approach that substantially relaxes these requirements by replacing plane-based constraints with scene-agnostic point-to-point correspondences extracted automatically from overlapping ALS strips. Two complementary formulations are proposed to estimate boresight with laser vector observations: (i) a simpler parametric adjustment utilizing INS/GNSS trajectory; (ii) a rigorous formulation treating GNSS and raw inertial data within an existing factor-graph, i.e. a dynamic network, where boresight is added as an additional parameter. Both formulations are evaluated across four operational ALS flights equipped with five inertial systems, covering a wide range of flight altitudes, overlap geometries, terrain types and inertial sensor classes. The analysis draws a clear boundary between the legacy plane-based conditioning that falls short outside the calibration scenario and the proposed formulations, which either recover or absorb boresight effects under conventional mapping geometry. Among them, the lightweight formulation is sufficient for boresight recovery using tactical and navigation grade inertial sensors, while the general factor-graph approach is clearly superior when the inertial sensor errors are less observable within an optimal smoother. This supports the hypothesis that, for INS/GNSS trajectory of sufficient quality, the boresight calibration can be performed without particular scene prerequisites during routine mapping operations using a minimum of 3-4 overlapping strips, with either proposed formulation...

AI-mediated answer systems increasingly determine how brands and organizations are represented to users. Existing approaches reduce visibility to mention rate or citation frequency. This paper argues that aggregate metrics are insufficient because entities exhibit systematically different AI visibility error profiles. We introduce Per-Entity Bias Mapping (PEBM): a ten-dimensional framework distinguishing raw from verified mentions. Three failure modes are identified: (1) underrepresented entities suffer invisibility due to weak knowledge graph presence; (2) large entities suffer the Brand Hallucination Paradox -- model familiarity creates stronger surfaces for plausible but incorrect completions; (3) CEE entities face a structural infrastructure gap across knowledge graphs, NER, and entity linking. A fourth dimension, Parametric-Retrieval Lag Asymmetry, describes divergence between retrieval-augmented and parametric memory update cycles. A full-scale empirical study (n=100 Hungarian B2B entities, 1,400 probe runs, 2,062 sources) finds Tier 1 brands produce 52.69% fabricated citations versus 37.87% for Tier 3 entities (+14.82 pp; p=1.67e-11), supporting the Brand Hallucination Paradox. Regulatory-framed queries elevate fabrication to 56.77% versus 37.59% baseline (+19.2 pp). We identify rejection-induced confabulation escalation: agentic quality filters function as hallucination accelerators in compliance contexts. We introduce ghost cartography as a unifying mechanism: entities in sparse latent regions produce confident output interpolated from neighboring dense regions, yielding a two-dimensional confabulation space (fabricated presence vs. frozen representation).

A model is multicalibrated on a collection of group weights $G$ if it is calibrated -- i.e. unbiased even conditional on its prediction -- not just overall, but also after reweighting contexts by each $g \in G$. It is a useful property for many downstream applications and is a basic desideratum of trustworthy machine learning. Before this work, all predictors known to attain the minimax-optimal $\widetilde O(\varepsilon^{-3})$ sample complexity rate for $\varepsilon$-multicalibration were randomized, while deterministic predictors were known only with substantially worse sample complexity. Whether randomization is necessary for optimal sample complexity in multicalibration was explicitly asked by [CLNR26] and implicitly in several prior works. We resolve this open problem by giving a minimax-optimal multicalibration algorithm that outputs a deterministic predictor. We then generalize the algorithm to produce optimal deterministic predictors that satisfy outcome indistinguishability (OI) with respect to finite or finitely covered collections of tests. As an application, this also gives deterministic omnipredictors and panpredictors with optimal sample complexity, resolving open problems posed by [OKK25] and [BHHLZ25].

Semantic caching cuts LLM inference costs by serving a cached response to semantically similar queries. Standard practice evaluates these systems using PR-AUC, a metric that only measures how well scores rank and ignores whether they are usable at a fixed threshold. We show this mismatch leads to systematically poor deployment choices, as models with the highest PR-AUC are often the worst in operation. We introduce Precision--Cache Hit Ratio (P-CHR) AUC, a cache-aware metric that measures precision across cache utilization levels, and Operational Retention Rate (ORR), which captures how much offline ranking quality survives at deployment. We decompose the operational gap between offline and deployed quality into a recoverable threshold-utility component and an irreducible structural component fixed by the dataset's positive rate. Our experiments show that the threshold-utility gap is governed by the training objective rather than data scale, and yields only to re-normalizing scores over the candidate pool or changing the training objective. Ultimately, model selection for semantic caching is a threshold-utility problem, not a ranking one, and measuring it is the first step to closing the gap.

Field-based modeling from onboard measurements can produce autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) maneuvering models that reflect real operating characteristics. From an approximation perspective, conventional maneuvering models use predefined constraint polynomial bases, whereas data-driven models use data-adaptive bases. Motivated by this basis-function view, this paper presents a differentiable composite-approximation formulation, in which the polynomial-basis component and the data-adaptive basis component are treated as differentiable parts of a single predictor and calibrated jointly. A gradient-based co-calibration method is developed for full-scale AUV maneuvering prediction, where a sensitivity-aware mechanism regulates bounded polynomial updates while the neural residual captures remaining nonlinear discrepancies under a shared prediction objective. To account for ocean-current effects in field data, a turning-motion-based current estimation and compensation procedure is incorporated to construct current-compensated learning targets for training and rollout. The framework is evaluated using sea-trial data collected from a 7-meter AUV under multiple maneuvering conditions. Results show that the proposed method improves recursive trajectory and velocity prediction compared with polynomial-only, neural-only, and frozen-prior hybrid baselines, demonstrating its applicability to field-data-based AUV maneuvering modeling.

Characterizing the features of a Hamiltonian that governs a quantum system serves as a fundamental subroutine of quantum device calibration, signal sensing, and error correction. Recent works proposed protocols have achieved the optimal Heisenberg-limited scaling learning ansatz-free Hamiltonians from their real-time evolutions without fully specifying interaction structures. However, these protocols rely on both deep circuits with interleaving probes and control, and extremely short time resolution, making them difficult to implement on near- and intermediate-term in situ quantum experiments. In this work, we propose a computationally efficient, control-free, and ancilla-free algorithm that uses only Pauli product state preparation and measurement, and learns an ansatz-free Hamiltonian $H$ with $||H||\leqΛ$ in total evolution time of $Θ(\fracΛ{ε^2}\log(\fracΛε))$. The evolution time cost of our algorithm is optimal for any control-free protocols as we further prove a lower bound of $Ω(\fracΛ{ε^2}\log(\fracΛε))$. Technically, our method introduces a randomized-sampling framework that combines band-limited kernel-based time sampling with a displacement sieve for Hamiltonian structure learning. The characteristic probe time resolution depends only on $Λ$ instead of $\varepsilon$, which makes our protocol especially appealing in the high-precision regime for sensing and calibration applications. We also show that the algorithm maintains the same asymptotic total evolution time in the presence of state-preparation-and-measurement (SPAM) noise when the Hamiltonian is local after calibration. Our results demonstrate the fundamental cost of experimentally friendly Hamiltonian learning and provide a practical route to rigorous in situ characterization of near-term quantum platforms.

Testing conditional independence is fundamental yet intrinsically difficult: without additional assumptions, Type I error control is impossible in general. The "Model-X'' paradigm addresses this difficulty by assuming exact knowledge of a relevant conditional distribution. While small deviations from this assumption can sometimes be tolerated in classical one-shot testing, existing sequential conditional independence tests typically require the Model-X conditional to be known exactly, making them fragile when it must instead be estimated. We propose a new approach that is substantially more robust to such estimation error. Our method applies testing-by-betting to an adaptively optimized Kernel Conditional Independence statistic, together with a normalization scheme and a truncate-and-shift calibration strategy. These modifications greatly reduce Type I error inflation while preserving high power across high-dimensional synthetic benchmarks and real-world fairness tasks, outperforming existing sequential Model-X approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/he-zh/SKCI.

U-calibration studies online forecasting algorithms whose predictions can be consumed by any unknown downstream agent, guaranteeing sublinear regret simultaneously for all proper loss functions. Existing U-calibration algorithms achieve worst-case optimal $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret for every bounded proper loss, but they fail to adapt to easier losses: as we show, even for smooth losses such as squared loss, they incur $Ω(\sqrt{T})$ regret instead of the optimal $O(\log T)$ regret. In this work, we show that this limitation is not inherent. Specifically, we design a single forecast algorithm that simultaneously achieves $\tilde O(\sqrt{T})$ regret for every bounded proper loss and $O(\log T)$ regret for every bounded smooth proper loss. More generally, our algorithm also attains logarithmic regret for losses that are smooth relative to the log-barrier, which include several non-Lipschitz examples. Our approach is based on a novel variant of Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) in which perturbations are applied directly in the prediction space using self-concordant noise. The resulting analysis also departs substantially from prior FTPL analyses due to the complex nature of this noise and may be of independent interest.

Web navigation requires agents to follow natural language goals, interact with web pages, and produce accurate answers. While recent advances leverage vision-language models and reinforcement learning, existing methods still suffer from single-step fragility due to reward misalignment and error propagation. To tackle the reward entanglement, we design Dynamic Dual-Policy Optimization (DDPO), which dynamically switches between a navigation-first mode for exploration and an answer-first mode for question-answering to mitigate reward conflict. To calibrate the single-step error, we propose Confidence-Guided Adaptive Navigation Reflection (CANR), a mechanism that estimates per-step confidence, triggers reflection only when necessary, and uses contrastive rewards to encourage self-correction to calibrate the single-step inaccuracy. With the above as the main components, we finally develop our StepGuard, a new framework of Guarding Web Navigation via Single-Step Calibration. Experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves navigation and answer accuracy, setting new state-of-the-art performance on standard web navigation benchmarks.

Temporal classification errors are often treated as representation failures, but they can also arise from how available evidence is converted into decisions. This paper proposes a representation--calibration decomposition for temporal classification. We keep a trained native classifier frozen and separate two inference-time interventions: a conservative residual multi-scale branch that adds auxiliary logits to the native prediction, and a post-hoc branch-aware calibrator that recombines native and residual evidence at decision time. This design distinguishes missing temporal evidence from underused decision-level evidence without retraining the backbone. Across FI-2010, PTB-XL, UCI-HAR, MHEALTH, and HARTH, we find that gains are strongly regime-dependent. Residual multi-scale evidence is most useful in noisy or representation-limited settings, especially short-horizon FI-2010 and weaker recurrent backbones, while branch-aware calibration helps when native and auxiliary logits contain complementary evidence not fully exploited by the raw decision rule. Near-saturated settings show limited gains from either intervention. These results suggest that temporal classification should be understood not only as representation learning, but also as the problem of trusting, combining, and calibrating evidence from multiple views.

Foundation models are now used in settings where the prompts they receive can change quickly. Users change, topics change, policies change, and the model may suddenly face a kind of request that was rare in the calibration data. This makes fixed calibration risky. Conformal prediction and conformal risk control give model-agnostic ways to control error, but they work best when the calibration data still look like the future data. This paper develops PromptShift CRC, a drift-aware conformal risk control method for foundation-model outputs under prompt and domain shift. The method embeds prompts and responses, measures how far the current prompt stream has moved from the calibration pool, gives more weight to relevant or recent calibration examples, and updates the risk level online after observed violations. It reports three practical diagnostics: realized risk error, prompt drift, and effective calibration size. We give conditions under which the method controls risk up to terms for distribution mismatch and weighted quantile uncertainty. In a synthetic prompt-shift benchmark, static conformal risk control fails sharply after drift, while PromptShift-CRC gives the best coverage among the adaptive baselines considered. We then evaluate the same calibration layer on public benchmark derived streams for question answering, toxicity, summarization factuality, and long-context hallucination risk

Conformal prediction gives prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage when the data are exchangeable. Many time-indexed datasets are not exchangeable. They have seasons, recurring regimes, changing frequencies, or other forms of structured dependence. This paper studies a simple way to use that structure. We propose spectral adaptive conformal prediction, a method that forms weighted conformal quantiles using local spectral similarity and then updates the target miscoverage level online. The spectral weights choose calibration residuals that look relevant to the current test point. The adaptive update corrects the long-run miss rate when uncertainty changes over time. We give an approximate coverage result for the fixed spectral weighted quantile and a deterministic long-run calibration result for the adaptive update. Simulations with recurring regimes and slowly changing frequencies, together with three U.S. real-data examples, show that the hybrid method can improve on fixed spectral weighting, while also showing that spectral weighting must be monitored through effective sample size diagnostics.

Selective prediction with distribution-free risk control promises that, with confidence 1-delta over the calibration draw, the error rate of accepted inputs stays below a user budget alpha. We audit this promise on signal-domain detectors -- machine anomalous-sound detection (ASD) and AI-generated-image forensics -- for four calibration rules: uncertified empirical thresholding (NAIVE) and certified Hoeffding, Clopper-Pearson (CP), and betting (WSR) upper confidence bounds. We report three findings. (i) NAIVE thresholding, common in practice, exceeds its declared budget in 49-73% of synthetic trials (n=200 calibration points) and in up to 68% of real-data splits: a false sense of safety rather than a broken theorem, since the rule never had a certificate. (ii) Tightness matters: CP and WSR certify substantial coverage where Hoeffding certifies none, with zero observed budget overruns under exchangeable splits. (iii) Under grouped deployment (unseen machine types or generators), certified rules overrun in 9-30% of trials -- far above delta -- showing the failure lies in the broken exchangeability premise, not in the bounds; a conservative per-group threshold restores validity at a severe coverage cost.

We present LV-Calib, a calibration framework for LiDAR-camera extrinsic estimation and LiDAR boundary-response calibration using a printable planar target. The target serves as a shared observation carrier: visual fiducials provide indexed image measurements, while circular reflectivity boundaries provide LiDAR-observable structural feature points. Instead of directly fitting boundary points as ideal geometric contours, LV-Calib automatically crops background points, estimates the target plane, and iteratively refines accurate LiDAR-side 3-D feature points from intensity and geometric constraints. The refinement explicitly handles the broadened and distorted transition band induced by finite beam footprint and mixed-intensity returns around black-white reflectivity discontinuities. Given these refined LiDAR features, we formulate a weighted reprojection-consistent extrinsic optimization with LiDAR feature alignment, where image observations are kept in the reprojection domain and LiDAR feature residuals are weighted by refinement confidence. Finally, using the estimated extrinsic and the extracted transition band, LV-Calib calibrates the LiDAR boundary response by estimating pitch-yaw-range residual statistics of boundary-overlap samples. Experiments on printed-board calibration data demonstrate sub-pixel reprojection accuracy, millimeter-level LiDAR feature consistency, and improved odometry performance. Code and calibration data will be released for reproducible evaluation.

Hyperspectral Imaging (HSI) is a promising modality for intraoperative assessment of resection margins in Breast-Conserving Surgery (BCS), but its clinical translation requires aligning the inherently 2D spectral information onto the 3D shape of the excised tissue so that suspicious regions can be precisely localized for targeted follow-up. We present a fully automated, calibration-free pipeline that produces a 3D hyperspectral point cloud of an ex-vivo lumpectomy specimen from a set of consumer-camera RGB images and a single top-down HSI acquisition. The 3D geometry is reconstructed with a deep-learning Structure-from-Motion backbone, stabilized in a metric reference frame by a custom bundle adjustment that enforces consistency on the corners of four ArUco markers placed around the specimen. The HSI cube is then registered to the reconstruction without recovering the HSI camera pose: the markers, visible in both modalities, define 16 corner correspondences that drive a planar homography, and 3D coordinates are recovered by lookup on an orthographically rendered depth map. Evaluated on two ex-vivo lumpectomy specimens, the pipeline achieves a median 3D registration error below 1~mm and a 2D reprojection error below 0.02 mm, with a total per-specimen processing time under 4 minutes on accelerated hardware. These results support the feasibility of integrating HSI-guided spatial localization into intraoperative margin assessment workflows for breast-conserving surgery.

LLMs are increasingly deployed as agents that interact with external environments and observe feedback such as execution results, error messages, and tool outputs. A well-functioning agent should be able to leverage this feedback to accurately assess its own performance. Yet we find a persistent reflection gap: LLM agents tend to mis-assess their own outputs after observing concrete environment feedback -- even for questions they correctly answered -- and standard RL barely helps due to a credit-assignment mismatch. To close this gap, we propose RefGRPO, a simple yet effective fix that augments standard RL algorithms with two key ingredients: a free calibration bonus computed by contrasting the agent's own reflection with the actual outcome (requiring no additional reward model, LLM judge, or external annotation), and a dynamic schedule on its coefficient. Compared to standard RL baselines, our method simultaneously improves reflection calibration (e.g., reduces underconfidence rate $44.4\% \to 7.7\%$) and task accuracy (e.g., $75.1\% \to 76.5\%$) on text-to-SQL across five benchmarks. The resulting calibrated reflection turns the agent into its own verifier grounded in environment feedback, which further enables (i) better self-improvement that uses reflections as pseudo-rewards without outcome supervision, and (ii) more effective test-time selective prediction by committing only to rollouts flagged as correct.

Quantum circuit routing is a key step in compiling programs for noisy intermediate-scale quantum processors. Routes that appear efficient by standard overhead metrics can still lose fidelity when they pass through poorly calibrated couplers. We study a calibration-aware graph reinforcement-learning router that uses same-day IBM Heron r2 calibration data to choose hardware-edge SWAPs. We train the policy with proximal policy optimization and evaluate it with exact simulated fidelity across nine Munich Quantum Toolkit (MQT) Bench circuits and three calibration snapshots. Across these evaluations, pooled mean exact fidelity is $0.727$, compared with $0.440$ for SABRE-best20 and $0.481$ for target-aware SABRE. We observed that fidelity gains came with higher routed two-qubit counts and were concentrated in 5 qubit and 8 qubit circuit families; under the fixed tree action graph, all 10 qubit families favored SABRE-best20. Overall, our results show that calibration-aware learned routing can improve fidelity beyond gate-count-driven compilation.

In fringe projection profilometry (FPP), depth is commonly recovered by fitting a phase-to-depth relation independently at each camera pixel. Although such pixel-wise calibration achieves high local accuracy, neighboring pixels can acquire markedly different calibration functions even when they observe the same smooth surface, producing spatially inconsistent geometry and structured surface artifacts. We propose a spatially coupled phase-depth transformation in which all pixels share a single low-dimensional mapping-global phase scalars combined with affine spatial terms on the undistorted reference-camera grid-rather than independent per-pixel fits, optionally augmented by a bounded, spatially smooth correction field. We further introduce a native-grid pairing scheme that constructs phase-depth calibration pairs directly on the reference-camera grid: when depth supervision comes from a rectified active-stereo pipeline, planes are fitted in stereo 3D and sampled back onto the camera grid along native rays, so the phase maps are never rectified. On a dental target with high-resolution scanner ground truth, the proposed model attains point-to-surface RMSE comparable to an active-stereo reference (about 12μm aggregate) while substantially improving spatial coherence over pixel-wise polynomial and rational calibration, and reduces the runtime mapping to a few element-wise operations per pixel with negligible parameter storage.

We study models for human-AI teaming through the lens of statistical calibration. We assume the team consists of an AI model and human -- both of which are calibrated with respect to some partitioning of the feature space -- and expose how the calibration assumptions propagate into the teaming framework. In particular, we consider frameworks that either (i) combine human and model predictions or (ii) delegate prediction responsibility to either a human or model. We show via theoretical and empirical results that existing methods for combination do not preserve the human's degree of calibration. Methods for delegation (by the very act of delegation) preserve calibration of the downstream predictors but shift the burden onto the rejector meta-model that decides who predicts. The rejector must be calibrated finely enough to locate where each member is superior, a demand that grows with the human's expertise and becomes unattainable when the human relies on information the system cannot observe.

Chinese discriminatory-language detection is challenging because harmful intent is often implicit and context-dependent. We propose MAAM (Myopia--Astigmatism Anchor Mechanism), a lightweight, model-agnostic framework inspired by functional visual blur: rather than preserving every token equally, MAAM retains discrimination-relevant semantic anchors and calibrates them with C--I--S contextual priors (Contextual Tone, Group Identity, and Stance Polarity). We also introduce ChLGBT, to our knowledge the first Chinese LGBT-focused discriminatory-language dataset, with 8,120 manually annotated samples and three ordinal labels: explicit bias, implicit bias, and emotional intensity. Across strong encoder baselines, MAAM improves all three prediction dimensions, with consistent gains in accuracy, F1, Brier score, and expected calibration error. Compared with frontier LLM baselines under zero-shot and few-shot prompting protocols, MAAM remains competitive while offering stronger compactness and stability. These results suggest that interpretable anchor preservation and contextual calibration provide a practical alternative to heavier model scaling for Chinese discriminatory-language assessment.

As LLM agents begin to take real, irreversible actions (shell commands, file edits, deploys), the standard safety pattern is a human-in-the-loop approval gate: risky actions pause and wait for a person. We argue the gate is the easy part; the hard part is the judgment - which actions to stop - which the field evaluates against two false assumptions: that there is a ground-truth notion of "risky," and that the human reviewer is a perfect, infinitely-available oracle. On a hand-labeled set of 125 adversarially-weighted agent actions we show that (i) reviewers only moderately agree on what is risky (Fleiss' kappa = 0.52), so there is no single correct label; (ii) framing the guard as selective classification under asymmetric cost makes its operating limits measurable, and on hard inputs the guard cannot safely auto-decide; and (iii) when the reviewer is modeled as endogenous (fatiguing as escalation load grows), realized safety becomes an inverted-U in the escalation rate: more human oversight can make a system less safe, and the safety-optimal guard escalates below full escalation - a setting a load-aware policy also uses to resist a flooding attack that slips a malicious action past a fatigued reviewer. Agent oversight, framed this way, is not only a classification problem but a resource-allocation one: human attention is finite, and the guard's escalation policy spends it. We claim none of these mechanisms as novel - fatigue-aware learning-to-defer (FALCON), cost-sensitive deferral under workload constraints (DeCCaF), trajectory-level guarding, and reviewer-fatigue/flooding attacks are all prior art we cite. Our contribution is an open-source agent-oversight system that operationalizes and measures them in the LLM-agent action-gating setting, turning "is my guard good?" from a guess into a curve. The inverted-U and the flooding attack are modeling results that motivate a human study.

While confidence calibration is essential for trustworthy decision-making in safety-critical applications, the robustness of calibrated GNNs to adversarial structural perturbations remains largely unexplored. However, studying calibration attacks on graphs presents unique technical challenges: (1) the discrete nature of graph structures complicates gradient-based optimization, (2) existing underconfidence objectives fail to drive predictions toward uniform distributions, and (3) GNNs are highly sensitive to edge perturbations, often causing unintended label changes that violate attack constraints. To address these challenges, we propose a \textbf{Unified Graph Calibration Attack (UGCA)} framework designed for \textbf{worst-case (white-box) analysis} of GNN calibration robustness. UGCA introduces a KL-divergence loss to encourage uniform predictive distributions, a reranking mechanism to reduce label flipping, a hybrid loss to recover labels when violations occur, and beam search to explore a broader adversarial search space. We further provide theoretical insights linking model generalization, dataset complexity, and calibration vulnerability, showing that models with higher accuracy or trained on datasets with more classes are more susceptible under this threat model. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UGCA substantially increases Expected Calibration Error while preserving classification accuracy. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/CaptainCuong/Graph-Calibration-Attack.git.

LLM-agent workflows chain model calls and tool invocations, and spend most of their wall-clock time waiting on upstream operations before downstream ones can start. Speculative execution can reclaim that idle time by launching a downstream operation with a predicted upstream input, but here each speculation costs real money (per-token billing) and its success probability is hard to estimate and drifts over time. This paper presents a method organized around five design decisions: (D1) start a downstream operation before its upstream completes; (D2) price each speculation in real dollars at separate input and output rates; (D3) expose a single operator dial for latency versus cost; (D4) decide via an expected-value rule with a failure-weighted cost term and a preference-adjusted threshold; and (D5) estimate the success probability with a Bayesian Beta-Binomial posterior whose prior is keyed to a dependency-type taxonomy. Variants of these ideas appear in recent work; the combination, with every decision logged in dollars, is what is new. The rule fires only on edges passing an admissibility precondition (side-effect-free, idempotent, or stageable behind a commit barrier), since a wrong speculation is rolled back by re-execution, which refunds tokens but cannot un-send an irreversible side effect. We specify the runtime mechanics, a closed-form result that the rule self-limits as the upstream branching factor grows, a five-stage calibration pipeline (offline replay, shadow, canary, online calibration, drift-triggered kill-switch), and a workload-fit rubric over eight production archetypes. Contrast tables against the four closest published systems (DSP, Speculative Actions v2, Sherlock, B-PASTE) show differentiators on every dimension, and a synthetic validation suite confirms the predicted decision boundary, probability threshold, posterior recovery, and streaming-cancellation behavior.